A bull trend to die for : Bitcoin Lookahead # 17

Leak pastebin: https://pastebin.com/VuCYteJh
Are you positioned to end up Goldfinger's next golden bagholder?

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Bitcoin: 1FVwou13SoY5t53RubmHAhgXSK6swer6w

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Hello everyone, this is MrJozza here and welcome to my Bitcoin speculation videos.
Thank you very much to Mr Anonymous (0.07 btc) for their donation, Pansyfaust for his third btc donation (0.01 btc), @invodkawetrust for their donation (0.07 btc) and @jacobts for diligently sharing my work on Steemit.

Congratulations Bitcoiners, we are easing through the $2000 level. As I've mentioned in previous vidoes, these kinds of big price integers make a fantastic headline so we can expect further interest in the cryptocurrency from those who didn't buy in earlier. The so-called mom-and-pop traders. (need headlines) (and example from lookahead #14)

With such a high price, the Bitcoin market cap, that is the price multiplied by coin supply, beats out the M2 of several countries. Perhaps I should use the M3 with the transaction backlog increasing.

I digress, technical analysis. As little as I can speculate at these new highs:

We talked about a target of 2.4k-ish based on the previous video when we were down in the 1700s and there is no indication of change from that target at this time. In the past week, we've been playing pong with the Bitcoin price. Except the upside always loses like it's your younger sibling using the 3rd party controller. Breaking through the 100s then bouncing on the 50s or the last 100 integer.

At time of production, we had a beautiful downside rejection candle then a test of $2270s before a possible break in trend.

First, 4h candle width. Volume has recently developed a bearish divergence and made a lower high. Bollinger bands remain at a consistent width, indicating that this is a, yes, a slow steady increasing price on the 4h timeframe. Interestingly that we are not seeing a period of consolidation as previously seen indicating that this may be the blow off top. There is supporting evidence of this being the case with it being 'new money monday' and Coinbase being emptied out by the new wire transfers.

On the daily, things are not much different. This isn't a very compelling bullish candle with such a long wick on the top, showing the strong sell off. But there is also a minor bounce off the bottom. Could this form a rough double top as seen on the 2013 bubble or possibly a ABCD bearish harmonic pattern? We will just have to wait and see.

I've drawn Fibbonacci levels here which we can use to extrapolate up and outwards. Extrapolating to 1.618, we did see resistance in this zone in the middle of a round-number $50 block, around the $70 if you will. TA is getting more and more interpretive here but IF we count this as confirmation of indicator, the next resistance zone will be at 2.618 or $2362. This does line up with last videos target with the MTGOX sell off.

[[But wait, there's more]]

There has been a recent leak from the Bitcoin consensus where we might yet again have consensus on segwit. The document available at the link on screen and in the description below [https://pastebin.com/VuCYteJh], details the activation of segwit with 'immediate effect' which is in contradiction with the BIP141 proposal from 2015 which does still require node consensus. Presumably this means that the participants listed will simply begin signally if not already which will cause consensus to be reached within 2 months. More worrying is the statement that a Bitcoin hardfork to 2mb blocks on September 21st. I try to keep up with the Bitcoin news and this is pretty new to me. Testing a BIP which will hardfork the network in 4 months seems rushed, with possibly not enough time for peer review. I'll add more to the next video as it is released. But bear in mind, this is the second time that several of the participants have supported Segwit and signed so at consensus.

I digress, the altcoin rallies:

Indeed, it seems that a lot of altcoins are getting a surge in liquidity with both Ripple and Ethereum topping several headlines. On May 15th, Bitcoin switched from dominant, to dominated (BDSM photoshop?) with altcoins accounting for more than half of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

Not to discount Bitcoin's shortcomings providing liquidity though. In just the 11 days between my last video, the network backlog has grown from 80k transactions to 130k transactions, with a high of 212k transactions on May 19th. At the time, with 101 btc in fees alone in limbo on the network, 373 thousand Bitcoin or 2% of all Bitcoin is sat waiting for a confirmation.

While the popular argument of simply increasing your fee paid to miners works in the short term. It was several downsides: First, miners have little to no financial incentive to progress the network forward with exception to their political interests in the coin. Second, if theoretically everyone increased their transaction fees paid - it forms a new baseline. The casual investors or the enthusiast that transact with the currency on a day-to-day basis are incentivized to move to markets with more focus on immediate transactability. Until this problem is solved with a solution like 'segregated witness'. 'lightning network' or a larger blocksize, we will see a diversion of liquidity until an equilibrium is reached.

These are my thoughts. Experts link the Bitcoin price surge partly to Japanese and Korean trading. As mentioned in my previous video, Tokyo recently approved bitcoin's use as a legal currency for retailers. Regarding Korea, their cashless society project started in December with a blockchain consortium, which became a pilot project for blockchain powered financial services in January. Later, Kyobo insurance became the countries blockchain operator. Fintech capital requirements for blockchain remittance processors were later halved to 1 billion won or about 900k USD.

We now see significant premiums in both countries: While it's the Chinese that are known for their premium, $160 shown here. Their mantle is taken by the Japanese with a monster $420 premium and the South Koreans with a $630 premium.

Japan and Korea now account for 1st and 4th most active bitcoin trading markets in the world.

I think that just about wraps it up for this video.

Thank you very much for watching and cheers.

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