Hihi,
Quick update.
First, I want to show you an overlay from my previous post. We can see a breakout downwards of the falling wedge in the first week of February due to panic. I think a lot of new people who bought in end 2017 have taken their losses here and sold. After that you see a very quick recovery back in the falling wedge and a week later you see a breakout upwards.
So far this looks very good for the long term. Volume is decreasing and price is stabilizing around that $8000 price I mentioned in the previous article. Maybe you don't feel it that way in your portfolio but trust me everything is going well ;).
Before we go bullish again I think there will be played 1 more scenario in the upcoming days. In the first week of April we will become bullish again if nothing crazy happens - you never know.
The scenario is according the double top (BTW you can see also here the stabilizing box around 8000$ which I discussed in my previous article).
For that dotted part, I think this will happen:
You can see the double top, the neck line and the retest. That measured move objective is around 6600-6800$ if you apply it on the bitcoin chart.
That's my point where I will buy back my positions. If you look at the daily graph it would mean a nice double bottom for bitcoin; a perfect set up for a bullish April.
If you look at the fundamentals everything is also ready to go bullish. The G20 top went well and China is making some moves according to blockchain technology; I would say google it and do some research.
Thanks for this analysis. Isn't there an opportunity that BTC falls to around 5000$, as predicted elsewhere? Just to get an idea what will be the best time to buy positions. I will wait till there is a clear bullish trend lasting for more than three days...
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There is no reason for $5000 at this point so personally I think we will form a double bottom and according to this analyse this would be around 6600-6800$, maybe a little lower but I don't take that risk. 6800$ is for me a great price, at the end I'm a long term holder. If you want to wait for $5000 you take the risk of being caught up in the FOMO so be carefully. Besides 29th march can be that turning point when futures expires again
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