Bitcoin - January 8, 2018 @ $17.000+? And then sell, Sell, SELL!
In this update, I want to follow up on the previous update of Bitcoin "Bitcoin 2018: Low $5.000 and High $90.000" in which I explained that we could see a bounce up after the drop from 20k to 11k. And that bounce could be an opportunity to decrease long exposure or even add to overweight shorts.
In today's update, I want to share where we are now and if the patterns keep aligning, what we could/should expect for the next couple of days/weeks/months.Bitcoin vs Silver Parabolic Pattern
The left side of the chart shows the Silver parabolic pattern, zoomed in on the pattern of nr. 11. After the sell off from nr. 9 to nr. 10, nr. 11 formed a dead cat bounce in the form of an abcde pattern, retracing 2/3 of the original drop.
Now, if we compare this with the current pattern of bitcoin, then it seems fair to conclude that nr. 10, the 1st sell off after the vertical move up (nr. 9), looks finished. Last week, I was under the impression that nr. 11 was already finished, but now that I zoomed in on the silver pattern of nr. 11, I think the current view better matches the comparison between the two.
If correct, this would lead to a target for nr. 11 of $17.000-$18.000 for the second week of January, after which nr.12, the next sell off, could take place. Target for nr.12 is expected to be below $10.000, so this indicates another drop of at least 40% into the end of January.
Total Portfolio Strategy 2018
If you want to read more about my Total Investment Strategy, then please read this update first: 2017 Performance and Total Portfolio.
Or read my latest update on the US Markets: Dow Jones Industrial, Party Like It's 1987!
This is what I will do over the next couple of weeks/months:
- I will add monthly to a mutual fund (worldwide stocks), as I expect stocks to skyrocket into the year 2030, peak of flight to private assets;
- I will add 2% of my assets to buy put spreads AEX Dec 2018, as a hedge for my equity exposure, medium term trade (12-24 months, 2018-2019);
- I will add 7% of my assets to to my 2018-2019 eToro hedge strategy: - Hedge US Stock Market for a 20%-40% crash
- I will contribute small amounts to interesting ICO's and tokens that pay out a periodic cash flow;
- I decreased my crypto exposure from 20% of total assets to 4% of total assets;
- I will add to my short sovereign bond strategy (rising interest rates) when rates come down a bit into 2018 or if they break key resistance to the upside.
Crypto Rating Desk and our ICO Portfolio of 100
ps. I started a new project, for and by my international students.
We analyze upcoming ICO's and when we see a project that we like, we contribute. Our latest contribution is LHCrypto, a token that pays out a monthly cash flow, has a working business model and is active in a growth market.
We now have 15 contributions, and our goal is to build a portfolio of 100 tokens that generates a periodic cash flow (Portfolio of 100).
Feel free to follow our ideas: CryptoRatingDesk.com
Should I sell my bitcoin now before it hits below $10,000?
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That depends on your total portfolio and the amount of risk you're willing to take @orlendgreat
This is what I did and will do: during the start of 2017 I had 20% of my total assets in cryptos, the top 5. I sold most of this during Q4 2017, and reduced my crypto exposure from 20% to currently 5% of assets. If I'm wrong, and Bitcoin does not drop below 10k, but instead goes up to new highs, then I still play along. Not for the amount that I could have been playing along, but I still make money.
If, on the other hand, my analysis does seem correct, then I have cash to buy back in during summer 2018.
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Glad new year! 2018 will be an incredible year. What an adventure it has been with Steem. We both have seen a considerable measure over the previous year or something like that. This undertaking has shown me to such an extent. The things I have learned are worth more than any measure of cash en route. I see the world in an entirely different manner after all I have learned since beginning with Blockchains. I truly trust the world is moving into a superior place. In the expressions of the colossal Naveen Jain we as a whole should "have an outlook of plenitude". This blockchain can be a device to change the world for good and show individuals numerous things if utilized as a part of the correct way. Information is power and It will be a blockchain loaded with learning. The Steem blockchain is getting more grounded by the day. We have seen some astounding development since this blockchain began and I know this is just the begin. When we have a completely refined item it will have the capacity to do things we cannot envision yet. The expansion of SMTs into the blockchain will intrigue and will change the way we consider the web and what is conceivable. Groups and discussions are a gigantic piece of the web. The conceivable utilizations of SMTs are stunning to consider. With Steemit and Steem we are now rolling out improvements in places that need it and offering assistance to those in require. Envision what's on the horizon for us and this blockchain. We additionally have an incredible group behind this blockchain. That is one of the principle reasons I put my BTC into this task over a year prior in the wake of discovering it on the Bitcointalk gathering and faltering onto Steemit through google look through a couple of times (accidentally hunting down different things). I at that point started some examination and saw @dan talking a couple of times about Steem. At that point saw @ned talking on YouTube and on CheddarTV and knew instinctively then he was resolved to make something extraordinary. Its awesome to see designers as you doing extraordinary things for the eco framework also @exyle with things like Steemify and Blockbrothers. Cheerful New Year again.Lets take Steemit and Steem to the following level in 2018!
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