Bitcoin's Unsustainable GrowthsteemCreated with Sketch.

in bitcoin •  8 years ago  (edited)

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Bitcoin has recently hit all time highs, or almost hit it with 1166$, but I think this growth is unsustainable. Of course the 2016 dollar is much weaker than the 2013 dollar, so if we factor in the inflation as well ,then the price didn't went that far high.

However the market cap did expanded significantly, I think in 2013 it was somewhere around 11 bn$, while now it hit 19bn$, and that is truly impressive. That was real growth, outgrowing inflation, so by all means, Bitcoin did expand since then.

Now the problem is that this growth is unsustainable, without an economy backing it, you can't just siphon away value from the USD without having an economy backing it. Here are the issues I see:

1) Chinese Capital Controls.

Many of you know that the new revised Chinese Capital Control laws required to disclose KYC information and all other privacy invading information for people who want to trade more than 50,000 CNY, so the Chinese are probably funneling money through Bitcoin, and then moving it into USD.

This is the cause of the recent price growth, and while this gives a useful purpose to BTC, it is actually not that useful in the economic sense, and might be portrayed badly in the media.

2) The Bitcoin Network Clog

The BTC transaction system seems to be clogged from time to time, fees are already increasing rapidly, and some small businesses are going out of work. Faucets, micropayment systems, and other web-games, and the whole "making money online niche", whom used to recruit most people into Bitcoin, is now starting to fade away.

This is very problematic. The hand that fed Bitcoin since 2012 is now starting to get arthritis. The faucet and the referral business recruited more people into Bitcoin, than any other industry combined (if you include gambling in this).

But the fee problem is destroying exactly this industry. And while the Segwit is awaiting activation, the network itself can't wait. Other currencies are lining up to get a piece of the pie, especially those that support micropayments like Dash or even Steem.


The annoying part is that most cryptocurrencies are highly correlated, this means that if BTC goes down, they all go down. And this is insane. Why would idiots cashout to Dollar, when it has a 10-20% real inflation rate and you pay all the banking fees, not to mention capital gains taxes, and it might result in your account getting frozen for 6 months? Why do people risk it?

At least I'd expect a cryptocurrency to be a hedge against BTC, but I can't find any. They all depend on Bitcoin, at least the major ones do, and the small ones are pump & dump anyway, they are probably no good wealth storage mechanisms.

So a person who wants to store money in BTC should be able to move it to a hedge cryptocururrency, when BTC goes down, and should not be forced to cashout to USD.

I hope some Gold or Commodity backed cryptocurrency would fulfill this role, but even Xaurum which is supposedly backed by Gold, doesn't fulfill this role. So we need a real cryptocurrency hedge to Bitcoin.


Upvote, ReSteem & bluebutton



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bitcoin now going down.....
nice story......
@profitgenerator followed

You can exchange to USDT tether on poloniex if you want to be more stable

Tether is also going down compared to USD, so it's not really helpful.

We need a currency that has -100% correlation with BTC, or alteast as close to 100% in the absolute value, but actually negative correlation.

What is your take on vaultoro?

Well it's not decentralized. And I think they store gold in switzerland, which is becoming less and less banking friendly, as their new banking laws take place.

I dont know, I own some gold and store it at a local non-banking vault, I think that is the best method to keep your gold, as close to you physically as possible but still secure.

Are you aware of the features of the Coinapult webwallet?

No what are they?

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Coinapult
Locks
Coinapult's Locks service allows users to peg the value of their bitcoins to currencies and assets, like USD, EUR, GBP, Silver and Gold. With bitcoin price fluctuation difficult to predict, Locks allows users the ability to utilize the Bitcoin payment network with the confidence of long term price stability.

Good, but I am not comfortable with storing my coins at a 3rd party system.

If this lock system appears in a decentralized form, now that will be the real deal.

I agree that the network issue and the fees could be a good opportunity for other cryptocurrencies to kick in deeper. The current issue is related to the fact that the bitcoin is far above any other option at the moment, isn't it?

Not for long if they cant get their houses in order.

Ethereum and Dash can easily takeover the mini-earning industry, and with their smart contract systems, they can open new doors for earners.

Hi, nice article.
But recently I heard opinion about bitcoin price, that it will grow up despite everything. And it is a good thing to invest in the long term . How do you feel about this view?

Yes I agree that Bitcoin will grow longterm, however that longterm is like 5-10 years.

But I think we will have some bearish moments until summer, I'd rather buy more BTC after spring.

Simple. Create a trading site to trade from one crypto-currency to another. This would help create a stand alone value away from bitcoin. Want it to not depend on bitcoin, then don't accept bitcoin at that site.

Countries are trying hard to get a handle on bitcoin as a whole. No doubt. With bitcoin running, they can't regulate it like they can their own currency. China throws out negativity about bitcoin to drive their people back to the Yuan so that it is bolstered. Because they can play with the value of the Yuan, but they can't manipulate bitcoin for their own gain like they can the Yuan.

You're seeing the battle between a dying breed of centralized banking, vs a decentralized economy.

The people using bitcoin in spite of what the banks want will push the banks out of big business. And I believe the banks see the writing on the wall...