After successfully predicting the BTC drop we now review the current BTC state of play.
When looking at the charts BTC looks to be forming another descending wedge. BTC also formed a descending wedge in February and April, both also during the middle of their month. BTC is currently within wave (D) of the descending wedge. Therefore we expect BTC to drop further, however a drop below $39K looks highly unlikely. When looking at the angles of the triangle a drop below $39K would require a negative break of the triangle. Seeing a negative descending wedge break is very rare.
Another factor supporting a $40K bottom is the current RSI hourly divergence. This is a bullish divergence, very similar to the one seen in April. We are expecting BTC to retest the 30 RSI level upon a negative bounce off the 60 RSI level. From here that would be the final confirmation point and will likely result in a positive break from the ascending wedge.
On the whole BTC in the long term is now bearish. This is due to a variety of factors (TA based) however this standpoint can change quickly.
In the short term we are looking for a positive breakout of the descending wedge with BTC then likely to push towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retrace, creating a new lower high.
BTC/USD chart
This is not financial advice.
TA by Red Tribe leader - Oliver Page