Bitcoin almost rational

When I say "rational", I mean behaviour that makes sense to a technical analyst.

So, as I write this, BTC all aquiver around $48k. Where to next?

Predictions are pathetic. The vast majority and wrong and quickly fogotten, the ones that are correct seem to make a few people famous, though only after forgetting all the wrong ones before and since. I think this has something to do with believing in fairies.

Anyway, here's my "if A then B else C" indicative predictions.

BTC peaked at $58k - this is precisely double the strong support at $29k due to a double-bottom forming in late January.

Coming down from $58k, there are two weak supports at $46k and $44k. Note that the price has recently held and bounded off exactly $45k.

Support and resistance levels grow more important the more times they hold.

Bouncing off $45k the price will try to retest $50k - this strikes me as more of a psychological barrier than anything else.

As the price falls through a support level, that level becomes a new resistance, hence BTC has tried to bounce up from $45k back to $50k very quickly - don't get sucked into the fake-outs.

So... mirror, mirror on the wall, now's the time to tell us all!

Would I buy now? No.

Would I sell now? No.

Do nothing and watch. Prepare for action.

So, if BTC fails to go over $50k again, then prepare for it to test $42k, the previous ATH in early January - after that, it's all the way down to $29k and, dread the thought, retesting the old ATH of $20k.

If BTC goes solidly above $50k again, then it might return to its irrational exuberance.

Here's a chart with the levels at (approximately) the right prices.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/jUj5FwaT

I think the $58k is a bit of a mathematical joke by the people moving Bitcoin to achieve their ultimate aim, which is to control it - like everything else. Smile!

This is high-speed accumulation through pump-n-dump tactics. One subsidiary tactic to supplement their stash was to pump up the altcoins as they tried to at least keep within the slipstream of Bitcoin. Notice how they have tumbled not just in USD terms but also in Bitcoin terms. There are few rare exceptions.

Anyway, fun times!