I forgot to mention blue...an ending diagonal "like it says" usually is present at the end of an impulse or the end of Wave C of a correction...so if you see it while the trend is up, it helps me forsee a potential turning point...how far will it correct?? only time tells and then the proceeding wave counts to give clues...BTW, haejin just posted an alternate WXY count on his mid day update which i didn't consider...this is very valuable...considering the oversold nature of the MACD and the fact that everyone is expecting another low or crash, may make large players try to push this thing and have those sitting orders FOMO into the thrust to new highs...just an observation..not a prediction...cheers friend
RE: Bitcoin (BTC) Morning Update: Diagonal Counting and Volume Confirmation
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Bitcoin (BTC) Morning Update: Diagonal Counting and Volume Confirmation
Hey Shawnster, many, many thanks for the info! I understand there is no 100% ever in this world and have a lot of respect for that aspect of this space:) So, If a symmetrical triangle is an indecisive pattern, an ascending triangle is bullish and a descending triangle is bearish, then a leading diagonal leans more to the trend. Whatever the trend is at the time. Am I roughly along the right lines here? Extra noob question....This pattern is pointing down, so essentially bullish.....??
I totally missed the expanded flat!!! Haejin is a genius. I remember my thoughts when he posted that video:) Since then I am getting better about seeing "three wavish" shapes:)
I like how you say that leading diagonals can help you see where you are in the count. That is very helpful for me. Are there other patterns you feel help with finding your way around a count?
I watched that recent video as well and I was thrilled to learn yet another new thing! Not sure I can use it yet, but I am observing and absorbing. Learning never gets old:)
This may be sacrilege to say in this area but I find the EWP book sometimes tough to grasp. Some people say that the Bloomberg financial books on EW and Chart patterns are a little easier to read. Would you have any insight into that?
Many thanks for your time!
Much appreciated, Cheers friend!
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Definately not a stupid question blue..in fact many get frustrated with EW and call it malarky..haejin brought up a really good point when he first started blogging in his training videos.."if you use EW alone, you will most likely lose all your money", but "if you use EW with TA and some indicators, in can help augment your analysis enough to where you feel more comfortable with your trades...another hard thing to do is ladder...there are a lot of traders that stop out and that's it..which is fine..i know a lot of day traders that are successful this way...but haejin's technique of laddering in on the way down puts you in a more comfortable position so you don't allocate all of your funds at once..BTW, your understanding of the diagonals is correct, but the only thing is when there is a leading diagonal, it means the trend has changed (bearish in this case for now until proven otherwise) because if will have a post bounce and then finish the last part..so you may see a leading diagonal start from a downtrend (up down up) and then the downtrend proceeds after this short term trend change to allow the correction to complete...or you may see a leading diagonal start from an uptrend, telling you that you may have a down up down to finish that short term trend change...in equities and futures i rarely saw leading diagonals as a wave 1 of a starting impulse, so this tells you that you are in a corrective phase, but crypto is different..triangles are abundantly clear of course along with expanded flats...this is why I've learned a great deal from haejin on the crypto side of EW.....now with that all being said..nobody knows for sure what's going to happen..corrective phases are the worst to predict..that's why the huge upward trend in the last few months was great to deal with...when i see these types of corrective moves, i lighten up a bit, hold the strong coins and dump the stragglers, and then wait for a more clearer picture...make sure to check out the book on TA that haejin recommends for the TA side...EW takes time..i wasn't really comfortable until about 2 years in..and i realized you cannot use it alone...an interesting thing i told haejin was that the futures market was even harder due to the fact that high frequency bots were just destroying the natural fabric of the markets..crypto was one of the most pure forms of human psycology and will change in time now that large algos are going to move in and futures is now upon us...i knew once they were in, the movements of the markets would change considerably..i was wrong ...i thought it would become more volatile..but instead it went to a crawl...i really hope they haven't taken the wind out of the sails yet...i just don't see how considering the infancy of this technological revolution...hope this helps some..sorry for the long rant..cheers friend
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Shawnster, Thank you for the reply! I am with you on your rant. I find myself to be 50% thrilled that this space is getting recognition, and 50% disappointed as I feel those same institutional investors will find ways to block the "little guy" investor. I am grateful to have started trading crypto before their influence.
Thanks also for the info and insight into EW. I have a friend who is a fundamental only analyst and we have some interesting conversations;) From my understanding all TA is seen as malarky by most, regardless of the theory used. However, I really enjoyed when Haejin said that TA gives us a "peek around the corner". Thats works for me!
Again, thank you friend for your insight and information. I appreciate the chance to speak with people who are willing to spread kindness and knowledge!
Cheers:)
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