We've seen this before. Many times. Yet without fail, every time, people try to rationalize why this time is different. It's not.
Even though I'm confident we are in a bubble, I believe that if you bought Bitcoin today and held it for ten years, you'd have a significant gain in 2027. With that said, I think we'll see another opportunity to buy Bitcoin at $500.
When you get into super-bubble territory, you'll start to hear your average person talking about purchasing that item. It may be stocks, Bitcoin, real estate, or roses. Everyone will start to want it, regardless of what "it" is.
PRO TIP - When you hear your Uber drivers, cashiers, and waitresses talk about buying an investment, you had better be selling. This is the point where all the smart money is already in, and there aren't many buyers left.
In the year 1999 and early 2000s, you would hear your average Joe talking about buying tech stocks. That was an indication that the crash was near.
In the US, circa 2007, it became common "knowledge" that real-estate is the best investment you can make. You would hear, prices never go down. It was also common to hear things like you should make money flipping houses. It was time to sell. The crash was near.
I'm beginning to hear average people talking/asking about Bitcoin and even altcoins.
What does that mean? The crash is near.
We are absolutely due for a correction... my guess would be 30-40%... but unlike other speculative bubbles driven by "irrational euphoria," cryptos are a tiny market that's at the edge of mainstreaming. The sheer volume of new money flowing in might take a while to be absorbed... and the supply of BTC is very finite. There can't BE a bunch of IPOs of Bitcoin; there can't BE 5000 new BTC "neighborhoods" built to meet demand.
My question isn't "whether," but "when." I think we may be earlier in the bubble than many people think because the bulge of incoming cash is large and supply is limited. I'm more inclined to think we might have a spectacular crash from $4000 BTC or even $5000 BTC. But who really knows?
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I think you have valid points, and have considered those possibilities as well. As I replied to someone else, I don't like to buy inflated assets in hopes they go higher. It's a poor idea that, more often than not, ends in heartache.
On the way up, little by little, I've been trading BTC for other assets that I think are undervalued. For example, silver.
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I'm with you on that. "Buy high and sell even higher" in a speculative market is more like Russian roulette than investing. I started taking bits off the table about two weeks ago... "just in case."
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Bitcoin was in the top 5 trending searches on Google a few days ago. So yes, ordinary people are talking about Bitcoin, and we shouldn't rationalize the bubble away.
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you are probably more right than wrong. On a side note, here in the Northeast US, the real estate bubble is wholly re-inflated again. prices are out of control for shit houses, and everyone and their brother is jumping into the market and trying to flip houses again.
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It will probably go up in price further, but nobody knows where the top is. When the bubble bursts, everyone will want out at the same time. In order to sell, you need a buyer on the other side of the transaction. When everyone wants out, there will be no buyers, and the price will tank.
As for the housing market, unfortunately, it's that way in a lot of places. And the bubbles don't stop with housing. The stock market is in bubble territory, there's a massive bond bubble, a huge auto bubble. Scary times ahead.
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I think it's partially because people realize the crazy type of gains that can be made in the
stage, in a ridiculously short amount of time.
But it's mostly because people without any experience or knowledge about trading/ investing are getting pulled into the hype machine of big network buzz.
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I can't disagree.
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This is great advice. I'm sensing the bubble will be bursting very soon.
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I agree 100,000,0000%. I have been getting contacted by all these non technical people who in 2013 though I was weird or crazy when I talked about Bitcoin wanting to get in on that and alt coins. It means the end is near. We all know what kind of pain we felt when Bitcoin went down to $176 in Jan 2015. It was terrible. We all know how we felt when the Steem was down to $0.10. A certain percentage of these new comers will stick around for the next mooning. The rest get washed out. It can be a very painful process.
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I completely agree, this run we are on right now is making me very cautious. I have had several people that just a year ago laughed at the idea of buying bitcoin, ask me how they can buy some this past week...that's a signal to me that if we aren't already in a bubble, one is approaching fast. With the amount of money flowing in the bubble may not burst for a good amount of time, but in my opinion a big pullback is in store at some point...when, is always the big question.
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Well there was just a bit of a drop...I'm sure this will fight back up a for a little while now. Probably wasn't a big enough drop to scare off the average Joe's just yet.
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In today's markets, especially this one... rules may not apply as most are controlled.
However if big boys are jumping in, especially with Ethereum, it may well keep climbing.
Where rakes would you put money these days, under more or less controlled platforms?
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7 months ago, I was selling gold to buy crypto. Now I'm reversing that trade. I think gold and silver are highly undervalued. Silver may be the most undervalued asset in the world right now.
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here is my question. for instance you can only cash out 2000.00 a day on kraken or 20.000 a month are there other exchanges that will allow you to do more or is that about the average?
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Thanks to my history with them, I have high limits on Coinbase, so I could cash out a lot there if I wanted. But, I'm not selling for cash, I'm selling directly into other investments.
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I disagree. the correction won't be that severe. Other coins offer support. Unlike other markets, cryptos exist within a specific realm. They are all more or less the same. This is not the case with the real estate or the tech bubble.
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Thanks for your input. I'm happy you're checking out my posts because I admire your writing abilities. Regarding the correction, though, time will tell.
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ofcourse I do and try to comment. Indeed no on can tell.
thank you for your kind words man.
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Sell Sell Sell!
It's all going to zero!
Bubbles, bubbles everywhere!
or HODL/loadup for the August run by buying from the bubble-people. :)
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Bubble phase is not happening right now, when we see 5k USD we can talk about bubble. Your worries have a base but that time has not come yet.
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Investing 101 says buy low, sell high. I like to buy assets that are undervalued, and sell them when they become overvalued.
I don't like to buy overvalued assets in hopes they go even higher. I believe that is a fool's errand, which results in many people losing a lot of money.
As the price has been going up, I've been selling a little at a time and buying other investments that I believe are undervalued.
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But how do you estimate an asset is overvalued? I sold bitcoin back in 2014 thinking it was a wise move.
Now I am like: "man, I wish I held them."
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It's no easy task. Listening to many experts with a wide range of opinions, reading a lot of books, and learning history. You can never have too much knowledge.
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Even then a lot of predictions goes wrong, which is why number one fear. I did a bit of trading and now I buy at current price and also at lower price...
Just holding at the moment. Hope it's a wise move?
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I can't say, I'm not a trader. I'm much more knowledgeable when it comes to big-picture trends.
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So, you are saying we should get rid of bitcoins because the bubble will exploit?, how soon?
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No one knows how soon, but I know a bubble when I see one. If it were me, I'd take some profits now. Then, if it goes up further, take some more profits. And so on.
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Are you getting rid of BTC right now?... I think you would be the only one doing that lol... xD
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Yes, a little at a time.
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10k bitcoin DUMP confirmed!
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There is as much speculation in what you're predicting as there is going into the bubble. Without imperical data (either way) it's just jargon at this point.
Obviously the price can't keep rising like this forever. But it could be that a new precedent is being set and a new base-low will be the same as the $500 you mention in your arbitrary suggestion.
It's all relative. We could have the same phenomenon occur with an extra digit in the price and you could come here and say "it's a bubble and you should by back at $5000).
It depends on where the current rise ultimately settles
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The $500 I mentioned isn't an arbitrary number. With each Bitcoin bubble, we have seen higher highs and higher lows. Last time, it crashed to about $200. It's far from an exact science, but if past is prologue, I believe it will settle somewhere around $500.
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Interesting. Do you see it rising back up to current levels after that return to $500? Or is that sort of a long term holding point. Huge ups and Downs today already, eh. It's nuts
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Yes, I see it rising way back up after the retreat to $500. The fall to $500 might take 6 months, and after that, perhaps several more years to rise back up to the its (then) previous highs.
Of course, this is just an educated guess, and I could be completely wrong.
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History often repeats itself. I think you are right on this. I feel we will have 5 to 10 more boom and bust cycles like this possibly more. I remember in 2013 / 2014 all the news coming out that all these companies are now accepting and all that and thinking that it was going to go up. Then it wasn't and it was like WTF? Then I went out to California for the premier of The Rise and Rise of Bitcoin. That day the price was $300 and it was like WTF???? Then when Jan 2015 hit the price got to $176. It was extremely painful. Others who were in BTC in 2010 and 2011 experienced some other Moonings and crashes. This time is no different. I h aven't forgot what happens when the charts look like this.
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I have been through the 1999 dot com bubble, although I agree with your logic and trees dont grow to the sky. But this is bitcoin, limited supply with mass adaption ready. I think it will consolidate and maybe 10 to 20% decline, but it is not going back to $1000.
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Bitcoin isn't mass adoption ready. The average confirmed transaction fee today is $3. Median confirmed transaction fee is $2. Both are growing exponentially. Wait times are longer and longer. The various scaling solutions are no closer than ever to actually being achieved on the network. It's an absolute pain to use, even for those who are quite familiar with it. How can you honestly tell yourself that's mainstream ready?
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What are you talking about? I can send a transaction with 10 cent fee only. If you pay 2-3 dollar per transaction you must be either out of your mind or you have thousands of micro transactions in your input.
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Very interested in these 10 cent bitcoin transactions....
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You better know what to do. ;)
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The median confirmed transaction fee, which means normal transaction sizes are $2 now.
https://twitter.com/nikzh/status/867722742354849792
The median transaction fee in the mempool, ie. unconfirmed transactions, is $0.78
http://bitcoinexchangerate.org/fees
The recommended fee to get in the next block is 81,360 satoshis or $2.26
https://bitcoinfees.21.co
You could have said this a year ago, it is straight up false today. The median transaction size is still 226 bytes, so this is NOT unusual transactions. For unusual transactions you can be paying upwards of $10.
Can you give a source on your $0.10 fee claim? How many such transactions are being confirmed?
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Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.
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