When alt season?

A hot topic at the moment is when we'll be seeing another bull run for the altcoins, otherwise known as "alt season".

I can understand why many people are believing it's soon. Historically, Bitcoin has dropped in March, and then gone on to have a bull run itself from early April-ish for a sustained period of time. In around May last year, we had the alts follow suit and pump.

Then we had the alt run again in November/December.

If history is anything to go by, and I tend to believe it usually is, then we could be expecting some sort of run for the alts sometime soon. I can't say with any certainty, but looking at some of the altcoin charts throws further weight to the argument.

I'll post a few examples.

Here's QSPBTC:

FUNBTC:

XVGBTC:

And finally, WTCBTC:

This is just a small sample size, but one thing they all have in common is that they are coming up to, are around, or have hit the bottom of a huge demand level that is at the origin of the parabolic moves from the previous "alt season".

This is good enough evidence to suggest that a lot of the altcoins have corrected and can continue their growth over time now.

On a more fundamental side too, we are seeing a lot more positive sentiment around the cryptocurrency space, as well the well publicised decision by G20 to hold off on any regulation for the time being.

"What's that? Scam ICOs have a bit longer to breathe? Great!"

While this all looks well and good, I personally need to see a bit more of a bullish signal before looking to put more money into some altcoins.

As well as this, I also believe that Bitcoin's general sentiment is southward for the next week or so, as I mentioned in my previous post here: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@technicalanal/where-is-the-bottom-for-bitcoin

I can certainly make a case for a $3000 bottom of Bitcoin too, which I'll make another post about soon.

Either way, if Bitcoin does indeed head further down to test the bottom of that weekly demand level it's above, then it will naturally drag down the alts a bit further.

I posted on my Twitter a couple of resistance points that we need to break through. This is the confirmation I would need for me to think that we can expect an alt season in the very near future.

What you can see in this chart is that "interim support" level I mentioned getting engulfed which makes me think we want to go lower, however we have bounced off of the top of the weekly demand level.

We face a big resistance at the ~$9916 area where we could see a double top in that 4H supply zone. This could be the turning point for us to head further south into that weekly demand, but like I said, an engulf of that (i.e. breaking through it) and retesting the resistance further up could be the signal we're all looking for.

We'll soon find out.

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