Looking at the day chart above there are a few things that strike me right off. First and probably most subtle, there is a change in the way the charts are painting since the hedge funds started pouring money into this market. The volatility is, shall we say more orderly. It's funny, I have seen so many charts in the Forex and stock markets that I know just by glancing at most charts what is going on with the underlying. Is it going up or down, sideways? Where will it be in a week if 'A' happens? Or, if 'B' happens.....etc.
But these crypto markets seemed to follow their own unpredictable paths. I was always guessing and although practically everything I picked up tripled in price at the very least; I know this was NOT a 'normal' market. Or wasn't it?
You see, I can see patterns emerging in BTC's behavior that match 'normal' markets more closely already. So they are manipulated by big money. No DUH! My advantage is my experience in the other manipulated markets I mentioned above. I know the MO of these greedy bastards. Hey, don't get me wrong, if I had the resources they do, and the fiduciary responsibilities they have; and I COULD, you'd better believe I surely would. It would be my job to extract as much money from any and all markets I am in for my clients LEGALLY that I could.
The beauty of it is I have been in both worlds for a long time now and I see the crypto world being manipulated just like the real world now more and more....and I know their game! Notice on the day chart above how we are testing the 38.2 Fibonacci. It's hard to describe, but experience tells me that the orderliness of this move through time is proof of my theory here.
Before the hedge funds moved big pullbacks in cryptos could mean months of waiting for another move back up. Not happening now.
A spike down flash crash could come at any time. We had one recently - sort of - from the top at $19810.00. Now notice on the chart below, we have a channel forming. Also notice how the variance around that channel is very tight. This is because the market is expanding every day with new money. Any whale, or hedge fund trying to front run the price DOWN is being stopped from doing it almost immediately by new money.
This attempted front running from the whales is illustrated by the volume spikes on the big down periods. You can see them marked by the arrows on the 12 hour chart below. The moves, although pretty brutal are becomeing more and more tame as the total market expands. These big money 'manipulations' are a good thing. The markets are starting to act more like normal markets, and the hedging going on acts as a buffer for volatility....this is all good stuff...
WHY?....because things are getting more predictable.
This 4 hour chart gives a closer in view of the volume spike that put in the new bottom at about $12,000. See how we have tested that 38.2 mark 3 times? And now the newest bottom is above the 38.2....very bullish! At least to the top of the channel in the second chart on this page. This is somewhere around $20,000.00. So if I were a trading type of investor, I would go long here with a stop loss around $12,700.00, target price of $19,850. We are at $13,750 right now so you would be risking about $1000.00 to potentially make $7,000.00 on each bitcoin traded. This is a KILLER risk to reward proposition.
This 1 hour chart shows you again the spike in volume before the move back up. BIG Money is battling it out in the war of price discovery. Very interesting stuff.
This last chart is just an expanded time-frame zoom-out of the 1 hour chart that shows the 'flash crash' to $10,700.00 quite nicely. Look at the bottoming tail on the second hour of the flash crash. They pushed the price all the way down to the end of that tail before the bulls went on a rampage and the price shot back up . Also, notice that the volume on the buy side outweighs the selling of the spike down....they are accumulating....you should be too!
Thanks for your explanations. So you think we are going back to the 20K mark soon? thanks!
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Who knows my friend. Anything - I mean anything is possible. I am playing a long game here. I have been in the space since 2012 when I started mining. I have been investing in stocks for decades. I had a very expensive education, you might say.
I am a longer term speculator type of investor. I use technical analysis all the time though. Why pay a premium for something when in a few days (or minutes with cryptocurrencies) it will be on sale for half price...ya know what a mean!
I wrote that blog entry because the markets feel different to me since a couple weeks ago. Its hard to describe. But hey, it will be interesting to see if my prognostications here prove to be true. My other entry about BTC seems to be holding up pretty good!
The key to these markets is to have good information. I would be happy to expand on that statement if you like. Believe me it's critically important you have good sources of information or you may as well just throw darts at a board and break out the hope-eeum pipe.
The problem I am seeing is you actually CAN 'invest' in these markets that way because of the whole scene being warped by a giant and steady influx of new capital.
I'm no genius, I just happened to be around longer than most and kept at it this whole time. Which brings me to the fact that I am always open to new information as well. I am learning as I go just like everyone else.
Otherwise, it's party time! Any fool with a web cam and a youtube can say just about anything and people will believe it. The mania surrounding this is just getting started and there will be more and more crypto millionaires minted every week through no fault of their own, although they may believe they are brilliant.....ahem.
Again, remember the actual study where they had a monkey throw darts at a board with all the stock in the market on it and he did better than most hedge funds?
Making money in this space at this time is like shooting ducks in a barrel. Just be acutely aware, that when these markets do turn bearish, it will be sudden and brutal. The next real correction will require capitulation from much deeper pockets than us first movers. There WILL be blood in the streets.....
That's when I will bring my dry powder to the party with my dump truck! In the meantime, it is quite likely that my 20K trade target is way too low.
So - how soon is anyone's guess. Could be next week. could be a year from today after crashing to $9,000 a few times. Although I seriously doubt that. Big money is in the game now. Yes they will manipulate to their advantage. But to crush these lucrative markets would be foolish and they know it.
Why kill the goose? Take the eggs, and figure out how to milk the bitch too!
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Thanks for your detailed reply :) I couldn't be more agree with you about all you said. I have not been involved in crypto since that long but I am also a long investor I made little trading. Mostly I try to dind the best and more reliable sources and get those coins which are still to bloom, so far i'm very happy with my investment. You got my follow, best of luck
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There's a lot of responsibility to say as if it's true what you are stating here.
Please, stay with speculations because you cannot predict a market that is being changed based in the emotions of millions of people around the world.
There's a big difference between this and traditional stock market.
I'm not a pro; but i like psychology and there's a higher scale range of emotions roller coasters going on in Bitcoin patterns.
Anyways; if someone wants tools for this... study Bollinger Cryptocurrency at youtube. There appears to be a pattern each time price candles touch the bollinger mark.
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I never said that this is 'true'. However I do know what I am talking about. The hedge funds still have over a half TRILLION dollars to put into this market That is more than the entire market cap of ALL cryptocurrencies right now. There are ETF's emerging. Emotions do play a major role in ALL markets all the time. You need to look at the market cap of the entire crypto-currency space in relation to the sheer amounts of new money coming in from the institutional investors BY THEMSELVES...without the millions of other emotional traders.
Also, that you sent folks to a you tube channel is making my point for me. sorry. I always lace my postings with humbleness about this because I do NOT know what the future holds. If I did, I wouldn't be here, I would have won several lotteries by now and own a few islands in the south pacific.
Bollinger bands, moving average crosses, stochastics, macd....blah blah blah. Lay any over the other and they all say the same thing a slightly different way. Trading is as much art as science. Everyone sees the patterns better using their own set of tools. Neither is more right or wrong.
All that counts to me is price action and volume at this point. Fibonacci's line up with moving averages AND bollinger bands on longer time frames anyway. Just because I don't trade doesn't mean I don't know how to.
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