I definitely agree that the bubble is far from over, it is most likely just barely starting. That does not necessarily imply that BTC will come winning out of this in the long term. There are many issues in the near future that could reduce BTC to a museum piece. Newer tech is about to take over and even ETH is unlikely to be the final winner of the race.
The BTC/BTU hardfork is the most dangerous, but there are also dangers associated with the segwit softfork as far as I have understood. Also consider the psychological effect of the flippening, which is most certainly going to shift the cryptomarket in favour of ETH for a long time.
For a long term investment, like several years ahead, I consider BTC extremely high risk, but for getting in and out on the rebounds ahead now in the coming weeks I consider quite with a lower risk.
This is why investors tend to lose money to the medium term traders, because they believe in something too much and might not even have made themselves any clear ideas of when it's time to get out. A trader will coldly trade according to the technicals, maybe with some fundamentals involved and win by probability rather than by a slightly informed gambling like most investors do.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. You say that you consider Bitcoin a risky proposition. Do you also see coins/applications with a less risky future?
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I think in the long term it is impossible to know which coins are going to survive. My only long term investment is LKK, but even that would carry a lot of risk. But by knowing what to look for to identify tops, and temporarily trade out, one is as safe as one can be in my opinion. If one does not want to get into technical analysis, setting a conservative price target for selling out is an option.
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