Love it when a good plan comes together.
Bitcoin price action is currently following the 2013 market cycle beautifully. As previously discussed, the price of bitcoin during the back-side of the '13 bull run rattled downwards in a falling wedge pattern. As price bounced from the support line of the wedge near the 786 fib level, there was a last gasp rally - the bull trap - to the 618 fib level and ultimately a final descent to the low of that market cycle at a price of 181, an 84% decline from the highest daily candle close.
Bitcoin price is currently out of the falling wedge. A close of the daily candle would technically confirm a breakout from the wedge and indicate a possible incoming trend reversal. However, we would still need to break 10k to put in a higher high to confirm.
The bulls are buzzing on crypto twitter and it would be nice to join in, but I think the Lord God of Bitcoin still demands more blood. For the record, I'm currently riding a long position with a take-profit set near the 618 fib at 8500 - I'm betting on this fractal. If/When price reaches this level, I will be looking to go short to ride the last short of this market cycle down to 3500. And then I will be piling in with everything I have.
If we confirm above 10k with conviction then my theory is incorrect and the bottom was already put in.
Shifting gears to fundamentals/sentiment, you all may have heard about the possibility of an SEC-approved ETF coming to the US of A in the near future. Monkeying about in the legal framework of the financial world is not really my area of expertise or interest so I depend heavily on the articles I read for a feel for which way this may go. I've seen mixed reviews but the more I read, the more I suspect this latest effort at petitioning the SEC for an ETF may not go through. This will be announced in September (delayed already from August 15), and could be a major news event for BTC.
https://www.coindesk.com/sec-delays-decision-on-direxions-bitcoin-etfs-until-september/
Above is a link to today's Coindesk article regarding the ETF. If it does get rejected, it would certainly take some wind out of bitcoin's sails from a trading perspective (not from a technology perspective, bitcoiners wouldn't and shouldn't give a shit about an ETF). Notice that corresponds roughly with a roughed-in swing high on the chart above. It could play out that this is the catalyst for the last bear run before the bottom is put in.
Cheers guys, stay safe.
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