In my last Blogentry, I looked at szenarios where the hashing power switches over to bitcoin and concluded that it will most likly change back pretty quick when Bitcoin Cash readjusts.
There is one exception however, what if Bitcoin Cash becomes not 0.3 btc, not 0.5btc, not 0.65btc, but actually more valueable than btc?
In this case it, the majority of hashpower is expected to switch over to bitcoin cash, since it is also around 10x as easy to mine after the difficult adjustement. Those huge profits will be gone when Bitcoin Cash gets speedmined for 2 days and then adjusts back to a difficulty , that is slightly of that of bitcoin right now.
The amount of hashing power switching after the difficult adjustment in 24hours, is the amount Bitcoin Cash will be easier to mine after the readjustement of 2000 blocks (which will be very quickly mined). If 50% of hashpower switches, bitcoin cash needs to be 0.5btc or better after the readjustment to stay more profitable to mine. If 85% of hashpower switches, bitcoin cash would need to be close or more worth than bitcoin.
If Bitcoin cash is more worth or still better to mine than Bitcoin core after it readjusts and the speedmining is over, then Bitcoins only hope, is to adjust itself.
And here is the problem, if the segwit activation is done or very close, bitcoin will NOT readjust after that and will have to wait another 2000 blocks to readjust its difficulty?
Price will not get better in this time and more and more mining will fade. This will make bitcoin basicly untransferable with < 1 blocks / hour, it will take 83 days or 3 months to reach the readjustement and bitcoin will be horrible to use for 3 months!!!
This is not acceptable of course and developers that have spoken against all hardforks, will be forced to make a emergency hard fork and prove of work change to deal with this. If this helps at this point after all the confusement thats going on is doubtful.
Another point is, that the mass amounts of new users at the moment will see the old bitcoin fall and bitcoin cash rise.. which one to buy....
In my previous post (https://steemit.com/bitcoincash/@thefan83/what-exactly-happens-if-hashpower-switches-to-bitcoin-cash) I concluded that its better to have the mass miner switch before segwit activation, but this is not true if Bitcoin Cash actually gets more valueable than bitcoin!
The date of the difficult adjustement of bitcoin cash at which point it will become vastly more profitable to mine and segwit activation is very closely together, it almost seems planned. If this is a plan its a very good one.
I have one more guess to make, this might seem a little bit far fetched... definitly conspriacy theory terretory, but interesting to think about and I see a high likelyhood of this: The anonymous miner of Bitcoin Cash planned the timing of this all very well...I think the anonymous miner that mined bitcoin cash so far and mined 10000 bitcoin cash without selling it is not Bitmain! They are still mining btc atm. Its wait for it.. Satoshi himself using funds he borrowed with his bitcoins at stake (or having sold the private key of it) or Craigh Wright or Nchain or its all the same.
Check out my other posts on this "will satoshi dump his coins?".
Edit: the adjustement happened, antpool just joined, but so far not a mass exodus for btc
But one interesting thing happened to the mysterious miner:
The mysterious miner on #bitcoincash tuned his mining down to 33% of his mining power before the adjustement, which further shows that he does not mine for the immediate monetary gain.. why now stop where it is the most profitable? To make the adjustemnet period longer.
The mysterious miner on #bitcoincash tuned his mining down to 33% of his mining power before the adjustement, which further shows that he does not mine for the immediate monetary gain.. why now stop where it is the most profitable? To make the adjustemnet period longer.
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I don't think it can be possible...
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