You'd have to have your head stuck in some very wet sand to have missed the big news of the past week: BTC-CASH.

While some people have listened to the warnings, many have obviously not.

I am NO EXPERT on this, I have to say, so I am not writing a stream-of-consciousness opinion piece here. I am asking an honest question, and I want honest feedback.

A few facts:

• Today is Monday, July the 31st 2017.
  
• Poloniex has stopped trading several different currencies, many for several days.
• Poloniex users are very angry, and its reputation is tanking on crypto sites, like CryptoCompare
  
• Poloniex has been taking a beating on various internet forums, particularly reddit
  
• Reddit has actually created an "Exchange Issues Megathread". A MEGATHREAD! to talk about these issues.
• Poloniex has stopped outgoing transfers in STEEM and SBD. They have been down for several days.
• Poloniex has more than enough STEEM & SBD in its Steemit wallet to cover all the outstanding withdrawal demands
• Poloniex's last transfer from their Steemit wallet was EIGHT DAYS AGO. In that time, they have received HUNDREDS of deposits from steemit users. One can only imagine how many withdrawal requests they have received.
  
  

What if STEEM is just the canary in the coalmine? What if the problems with STEEM trading on Poloniex are systemic, across all currencies?

What does this all mean?

My theory on this whole Bitcoin-Cash thing is that it is the manufacturing of a crisis. The BTC blockchain is transparent, and anyone can see what is going on. It is obvious that some exchanges are experiencing serious issues (and they have been since this year's spike in market capitalizations across the sector). It is anyone's guess what could be at the root of the problems, but this is my theory: Some marketplaces have been offering services which mimic those you would find in the traditional fractional reserve banking system, like margin trading and lending, and they have possibly lost control of their system, having introduced fractional benefits without properly managing their consequences.

Bitcoin-Cash is going to start from a clean slate - a full copy of the BTC blockchain and then a subsequent upgrade. It offers its new token ONLY to those bitcoin holders who have personal control of their coins. They are entitled to the new token, if and only if they have full control of their Bitcoins by August 1st. The new token is being introduced by a specific group of miners, exchanges and wallets who obviously think they can only gain something from its introduction. They would not be doing it if they thought it would hurt them. What they have to gain from it is this (at least partially):

They did this because it will isolate and RUIN anyone who is running a competing fractionally reserved Bitcoin exchange.

Outcomes?

• Centralized exchanges will die. They would have anyhow, but now, it will happen much quicker.
• The collapse of these exchanges will capture the attention of the general public who have been avoiding crypto thusfar.
• This will bring about some serious oversight and pressure from national and private banking institutions.
• Crypto owners will pause and consider the weaknesses of their chosen coins, driving wild speculation way down, and further concentration of money into the highest quality coins.
• ICOs will tail off, as more people understand the futility of doing the same thing over and over again.
• Decentralized exchanges will grow and flourish. The most successful of them will actually ABSORB entire blockchains, essentially UPGRADING those currencies.
• The upcoming global economic crisis will highlight the importance of decentralization, when institutional pensions and bank accounts and even national currencies will be wiped out.
• Blockchains which are proven, efficient, reliable, fast, safe and scalable will consume all the capital in the sector.

I don't mean to be a cheerleader here, but I have to say it again: The blockchain that we use here every day, STEEM, will flourish through this crisis.

Bitshares will explode, and EOS will come online next year just in time for a FULL UPGRADE of the Bitshares platform.