NCAA TOURNAMENT: "UPSET SPECIALS"

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March Madness has finally descended upon us and the Big Dance is just one day away! There have been two play-in games completed with two more on-tap for tonight and the field of 64 will be set. St. Bonaventure rallied and took control down the stretch against UCLA last night and looked good in doing so - I'll have more on the Bonnies later. As we head into the Tournament, we all know that each year yields some completely unexpected results, the emergence of a "cinderella" or two, and the most certain of them all - that your bracket will be busted by Friday night (and a lot of times much, much sooner!).

This year will be no different of course, so let me give you some of my top "upset special" picks to help put you in position to win that pool and be the king of your bracket domaine. I'm going to give some of my picks and then I'll go through each seed pairing (7 vs 10) (6 vs 11) (5 vs 12) (4 vs 13) (3 vs 14) (2 vs 15) and identify which matchup is best open to that unexpected upset or two. So let's get into it:

"UPSET SPECIALS"

(11) LOYOLA-CHICAGO (28-5) over (6) MIAMI, FL (22-9)

The Ramblers were one of the most consistent teams all season long. They are one of the most experienced teams in the field and are led by a quintet of Junior Guard Clayton Custer (13.4ppg, 4.3apg), Senior Donte Ingram (11.6ppg), Junior Marques Townes (11.2ppg), Senior Aundre Jackson (10.9ppg), and Freshman Center Cameron Krutwig (10.5ppg, 6.3rpg). With five players all averaging in double figures, and a jack-of-all-trades type-player in experienced Senior Ben Richardson (6.7ppg, 3.8apg), the Ramblers are poised for what could be a deep-run. Richardson does it all as he also adds nearly 3 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game as well. Few tournament teams are as lucky to have that kind of upperclassmen leadership to lean upon, and with the way they play defense (62.2 points allowed, 5th Nationally) this team is going to be a tough, tough out. With their balanced scoring, and numerous options to go to , they will be difficult to prepare for in a quick turnaround. Note: This is one of the trendy "upset" picks out there, but make no mistake this team has the goods to deliver.

(12) NEW MEXICO ST. (28-5) over (5) CLEMSON (23-9)

The Aggies are another popular "upset" pick among the consensus out there - and rightfully so. NMSU finished the season by winning six straight and breezing through the WAC Conference Tournament. They played a more challenging non-conference schedule than most realize (L to Saint Mary's, W over Illinois, W over fellow Tournament teams Miami and Davidson, and a L to USC) and they have a bonafide scorer in guard Zach Lofton (19.8ppg). The Aggies are trending in the right direction. Clemson was perhaps among the best teams in the country in January until star Senior Forward Donte Grantham tore his ACL. The Tigers managed to go 6-5 down the stretch after the injury and stay in the Top 25. Clemson is a very good defensive team, but did struggle a little closing out the season. I believe that NMSU matches up well with the Tigers and they do a lot of the same things well (4th Nationally in Rebounding and 10th in points allowed) -which matches Clemson's strength's perfectly - rebounding and defense. Look for this one to be a great first round game, and for NMSU to pull off one of the infamous "12 vs 5" upsets that we are accustomed to seeing each year.

(12) SOUTH DAKOTA ST. (28-6) over (5) OHIO ST. (24-8)

I'm doubling down on the 12's this year and believe that two of them will pull upsets. The Jackrabbits like to stay true to their name and get out and push the ball and score as much as possible (84.9 point per game, 6th Nationally). They also have the star of the Summit League and maybe the best player you've never heard of in Junior Forward Mike Daum. He's 6'9" 250 lbs and can bang inside and rebound with the best in the country (10.4 rpg) but can also take his game outside and be a lethal shooter form long-range (42.1% 3pt shooting). One of the top scorers in the country (23.8 ppg), enjoy getting the opportunity to see him play against top-level competition. They've won 11 straight to close out the year and have won the last 7 by an average margin of 10 points per game. If you're looking for a hot team heading into the Tournament you found one in SDSU.

Meanwhile it seems like an eternity since Ohio State last played and bowed out early in the Big Ten Tournament all the way back on March 2nd. The Buckeyes were one of the hottest teams in the country at one point this season and rightfully played themselves into the top 10. They finished the season a bit stagnant at 3-3 after a hot start in conference play. The Buckeyes are a good team, and are an intriguing pick by some to make the Final Four (in particular ESPN analyst Dan Dakich who picked them to win it all). However, I think the layoff and the so-so finish to season puts Ohio State on upset alert. They did struggle with high-scoring teams this season, losing badly to Gonzaga, North Carolina, and Michigan throughout the season, so I believe this matchup presents a lot of problems for OSU.

(11) ST. BONAVENTURE (26-7) over (6) FLORIDA (20-12)

The Bonnies got a win over UCLA last night in the first 11-seed play-in game. They rallied in the second half and out-played the Bruins down the stretch on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. St. Bon had a 13-game winning streak snapped in their A-10 Semifinals loss to Davidson, and also had an 8-game winning streak earlier in the season. Their win last night gave them a school-record 26 on the season, but I don't believe they are done yet. They take care of the basketball and play solid, albeit not quite elite-level defense, but as they showed in the last 7 minutes last night, they can turn you over in a hurry and flip a game on its head. They also have a real-deal scoring threat in Guard Jaylen Adams (19.4 ppg) and he might not even be the team's best player. Courtney Stockard does a little bit of everything for the Bonnies and averages over 13 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He came up big last night with 26 points in the win over UCLA and might just be getting started.

The Florida Gators have one of the most impressive resumes in all of college basketball (wins over Cincinnati, Auburn, Gonzaga, and Kentucky (twice)) but they were unable to build on a red-hot start, closing the season 6-6 and finishing with an overall record of just 20-12. That kind of overall record usually doesn't equate to a 6-seed, it's more of a 8-10 seed from that standpoint, however the Gators difficult non-conference schedule and 5-3 record against the top 25 helped them to a 6. Losses @ Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, and a sweep at the hands of Georgia were hiccups along the way in SEC play, making the Gators one of the most unpredictable in the field - they can score over 100 if they want (they broke that mark in 4 of their first 5 games) or 59 and lose at home to Loyola-Chicago. The Bonnies are playing the better ball at the moment, and I believe Florida is going to have a tough time handling them and their dominant duo. Watch-out for St. Bonaventure to potentially get into the second weekend and the Sweet 16.

Note: Since the field expanded in 1985, only twice has a team seeded 10-15 NOT made the Sweet Sixteen, so before you just go chalk remember to find that one double-digit seed that could crash the party. Oh and there have been 15 times where 3 teams seeded 10-15 made the Sweet Sixteen, so maybe taking that 12 or 11 to the second weekend isn't as much of a stretch as you first thought.

THE POTENTIAL UPSETS

Now that I've gave you my "upset specials" lets take a look at all of those other matchups with upset potential. While it may seem unlikely that a 14 will beat a 3 or a 13 over a 4, keep these two interesting tidbits in mind: A # 13 seed has beaten a # 4 seed in 6 of the past 9 Tournaments. Also, a # 14 seed has defeated a # 3 seed in 4 of the past 5 Tournaments (last year was the exception). So let's start with the 7 vs 10 matchups and work our down.

7 vs 10

(10) PROVIDENCE (21-13) over (7) TEXAS A&M (20-12)

The Friars finished the season with an incredible run through the Big East Tournament - reeling off three straight overtime games, first dispatching Creighton, then upsetting Xavier, and taking Villanova down to the very end in the Final. Senior Kyron Cartwright willed PC down the stretch in those Big East Tourney games and he could do the same thing in the Big Dance. A&M is a solid team, but also fizzled out just a tad down the stretch. A&M was just 4-5 in games decided by 4 points or less, whereas PC went 8-0 in those same situations. Meaning, if the game is close (and I expect it will be) - the Friars seem to have a substantial advantage. Take the Friars in the slight upset.

We've already discussed the 6 vs 11 and 5 vs 12 upsets so let's move on to the potential "big" bracket-busting upsets.

13 vs 4

(13) MARSHALL (24-10) vs (4) WICHITA ST. (25-7)

The Thundering Heard fits the mold out of the current 13-seeds if one is to continue the trend and bump a 4-seed early. They shoot the 3-ball well and like to get out and score points (averaged 83.2 in their last 9 games). In recent history, some of the biggest upsets in Tournament history have happened, including 15-seeded Middle Tennessee shooting the lights out and putting up 90 on 2-seed Michigan State two years ago and Norfolk State hitting an insane amount of 3's and dispatching of 2nd-seeded Missouri in 2012. And Marshall has the potential to shoot their way to a big upset just like those two thanks to their style of play. Wichita St. does boast one of the most experienced teams in the field, so it will be no easy task for Marshall. However, one important difference with this year's Shockers vs previous year's editions is they aren't quite as sound on the defensive-side of the ball. That could equate to a "Shocker" (pardon the bad pun) if Marshall hits their shots from long-range like they have down the stretch, sparking their run through the Conference USA Tournament. Watch-out this could be an intriguing one!

3 vs 14

(14) STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (28-6) vs (3) TEXAS TECH (24-9)

Chris Beard's Texas Tech team was a pleasant surprise this season, and nearly parlayed that success into a Big 12 regular season Conference Title. The Red Raiders are very good on the defensive side of the ball, (16th Nationally) but lack in significant Tournament experience. Tech did make the Tournament two years ago but bowed out in the first round as an 8-seed to Butler. Stephen F. Austin finds themselves in the Tournament for the fourth time in five years, and this Senior-ladened group has a ton of experience to draw upon. The Lumberjacks finished the season 11-1 and did have non-conference games against Mississippi State, Missouri, and LSU, so they did see some "major" conference competition early in the season. They took down a surprisingly solid SE Louisiana St. team in the Southland Tournament final. If there is going to be another 14 vs 3 upset this year, this would seem to be the one. The Lumberjacks managed to upset West Virginia two years ago as a 14-seed, and they did it with relative ease, winning 70-56. Will this year be a repeat?

2 vs 15

(15) IONA (20-13) vs (2) DUKE (26-7)

2-Seeds are just 8-124 all-time in the NCAA Tournament, making this a highly unlikely pick, as that equates to just a 6.0% win percentage. However, 4 of those 8 victories by 15-seeds have occurred in the past 6 years, including two in 2012. So, as of late, anyway, it is far-less outrageous for a 15 to do the unthinkable.

I know what you're thinking of course, how could a Duke team with so much talent (Marvin Bagley III, Wendall Carter Jr., Grayson Allen, etc.) and NBA-caliber ability really lose to a 15-seed? Well one of those 2-seeds noted above to fall was actually Duke back in 2012. That Duke team went 27-7 (this year's went 26-7) and no one considered Lehigh a threat to a Blue Devils team that also had a plethora of NBA-level talent. That team, led by the Plumlee brothers, Seth Curry, and Austin Rivers had loads of talent as well, but did lack in experience.

Flash-forward to this season, and while Duke is one of the most talented teams in the nation, they are also the second least experienced team in the entire field behind Kentucky. Iona, on the other hand, is the second-most seasoned team in the field behind Wichita St. This is actually the third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance for the Gaels, and they closed the season 4-1 in their last 5 games. This will be the 12th appearance overall for the Gaels, which is the most by any team in the current field without a win. If there is to be a 2 vs 15 upset in the Big Dance this year, Iona over Duke fits the bill perfectly. A Senior-ladened, experienced, Iona team playing their best ball of the season, against a very young inexperienced Duke team who is a little disappointed about not getting to play their opening round game in close-by Charlotte (North Carolina got that honor). It would an epic upset, but hey if one is going to happen, why not Iona getting their first Tournament win?

1 vs 16

Yea, a 1 has never defeated a 16 before and I'm not quite whacky enough to declare that happening here, but there have been some very close calls over the years. If you really, really want to look for one this year, (1) Kansas vs (16) Penn would be the one. The Jayhawks are just 1-8 in reaching the Final Four as a 1-seed under Bill Self, but that doesn't mean they'll get upset in the first round. That being said, Penn was under-seeded and could have easily been a 14 or 15-seed. They shoot the ball well and play solid defense, but, obviously, it will take a truly historic performance for the Quakers to pull off the shocker of all shockers. But hey, it's bound to happen at some point right? Right?

Hope you enjoyed the read and best of luck in filling out your brackets! Let me know your thoughts as always below and look out for my "sleeper" picks later today!