By the looks of the most recent apartment data in Boston, it appears that rent growth in Boston’s suburbs is outpacing that of the city coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Like so many other US real estate markets, housing demand was higher in suburban areas than it was in Boston throughout most of the pandemic. Boston’s core markets endured major supply upheaval as a result of remote learning and remote work, while many of Boston’s suburbs saw a relatively low amount of disruption.
This shift in demand has resulted in a -2.06% loss in Boston’s average rent price compared to January 2020, prior to COVID coming to town. Compare that to Boston’s suburban average rent drop of -1.01%, you can see that prices are down more than twice as much in Boston proper as they are in the burbs.
Surprisingly, out of the 12 suburban areas closest to Boston, only four have recorded increases compared to their pre pandemic levels.
Quincy: +10.67% Increase in Average Rent Price
If there was an award for top performing rental market through COVID, Quincy would arguably take it home. Quincy maintained steady apartment supply levels throughout the pandemic, undoubtedly bolstered by an influx of new residents moving from the City. For those professionals fleeing Downtown for more spacious remote office environments, lower rents and easy access to Downtown, Quincy checked off all of the boxes. As a result, availability of apartments for rent in Quincy is at historic lows and the rent price is up +10.67% since January 2020.
Arlington: +8.2% Increase in Average Rent Price
Arlington’s case is unique in that the year prior to COVID, the rental market experienced a record low year in terms of apartment availability and it looked as if prices would soon be on the rise. The pandemic did slow that momentum in 2020. Remote learning took its toll on the supply of Arlington apartments. But the market recovered well in 2021 and Arlington currently has the 3rd lowest real-time availability rate (1.12%) out of all Boston suburbs behind Malden (1.09%) and Quincy (1.08%). As a result, average rent prices in Arlington have increased by +7.36% year-over-year and are up +8.20% since January 2020.
Chelsea: +5.33% Increase in Average Rent Price
Chelsea’s apartment rental market is much smaller than the first two suburbs on this list, but that didn’t stop it from seeing record low apartment availability coming out of the pandemic. Chelsea’s current apartment availability (1.34%) has dropped by -22.09% since January 2020, and as a result, the average rent price for Chelsea apartments is up +5.33% during the same time span.
Medford: +0.83% Increase in Average Rent Price
The last suburban market that recorded an increase in average rent price since January 2020 is Medford, albeit at a slight increase under a percentage point. Medford’s path through COVID was an interesting one. Throughout most of 2020 and 2021, Medford outperformed almost all other markets both suburban and within Boston in terms of apartment supply metrics. That trend seems to have flip-flopped since September 2021, as supply figures in Medford have lagged behind historical trends and the area average. The availability rate for apartments in Medford MA is actually up +71.61% since January 2020 as a result, the highest increase of any neighborhood in Boston. So while Medford’s 2 year rent price change is up +0.83% at the current moment, all indices point to a downtrend in Medford’s rent price until the market absorbs some of the excess rental inventory.
An interesting trend to watch in the broader Boston apartment rental market is the suburb’s slower recovery from pandemic-related supply issues compared to the city. It seems that lower rent prices in the city and landlord incentives have brought much of the area’s off campus housing demand to Boston’s inner markets. Since September, apartment supply levels have dropped below pre pandemic levels in these core markets while remaining flat or even increasing in the outer areas.
Look for rent prices to continue to climb in markets with close and easy access to inner Boston. The current data shows that any suburban market located near a train station or major artery is outperforming others, so look for rent in these places to rise considerably.