BITCOIN Remember the Bullish Megaphone? MACD is the key.

in btc •  4 years ago 

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Well it was a great 24hours and the cryptoworld took the most of it while it lasted, as BTC went from $19400 to $23750. That was a +23% rise in a day but since early Thursday, the price is pulling back. That is natural, you may think, and rightly so as corrections after such a rise represent profit taking of those who happily wanted to book their short-term profits.

Interestingly enough this is where an "old" pattern of ours, one that I posted on November 27, comes into play. The Bullish Megaphone:

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** The Bullish Megaphone and the importance of the MACD **
It may be no coincidence that the market made a stop almost on the Higher High trend-line of that pattern. My focus is on the MACD on the 4H time-frame, which is making a Bearish Cross (can be completed on the next 4H candle). Every top on the Megaphone's Higher High trend-line was followed by a MACD Bearish Cross. The 1st High didn't deliver a pull-back (normal as the Megaphone was just being formed) but the next 3 delivered a -10%, -12% and -12% pull-back respectively. Should we expect another 10% to 12% pull-back if the Bearish Cross is formed? Well keep an eye on that for sure, that puts the zone of interest within $21380 - $21000. But as the last pull-back showed, the drop may not take place instantly but rather in a controlled manner that first approaches the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) sideways and breaks it and then finds Support on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).

As the chart below shows though, on the 1D time-frame we may have a whole lot different ( bullish story) as the MACD is coming off a very aggressive Bullish Cross Gap, which last time took place on September 15. That was when the market was in an accumulation phase, preparing the Bull Run of late October - today. So a 1 month accumulation phase wouldn't surprise me in preparation of the next Bull Run.

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So what's your take? Will Bitcoin keep rising, trade sideways for the next few weeks or we can expect a sharper dive below 20-19k? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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