Latest Monte Carlo Simulations of Bitcoin Price 100 Days Out

in btc •  7 years ago 

Just for fun, I've developed a monte carlo simulator for Bitcoin (or really it can be used for any empirical distribution).

Simulating 1000 random walks out to 7.11.2018 produces the following "prediction":

1000 random walks ending on 2018-07-11T00:00Z

  • Average Close Price: 10297.871828929912
  • Median Close Price: 9580.614030757966
  • Max Close Price: 31071.8910745536
  • Min Close Price: 2277.196877248253
  • 80th Percentile Close Price: 13531.952141619598

Which can be visualized by this chart:

Poloniex BTC Daily - Simulating 100 Days Out with 1000 Random Walks.JPG

I also ran 10,000 random walks (all hail the Threadripper) with the following results:

10000 random walks ending on 2018-07-11T00:00Z

  • Average Close Price: 10253.35880964114
  • Median Close Price: 9389.700623245808
  • Max Close Price: 50481.52524964556
  • Min Close Price: 1586.7458787213823
  • 80th Percentile Close Price: 13445.03327374023

Poloniex BTC Daily - Simulating 100 Days Out with 10000 Random Walks.JPG

Again, this was just for fun so don't go betting your home equity on it!

btc bitcoin prices prediction montecarlo
7 years ago by

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      ·  7 years ago 

    Hi

    Help for beginners

    Read my last post to get bis 45 free upvotes. 👇

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