Tale of Two Bitcoins - BTC Analysis 09-22-2018

Here we see a wedge. Not just any wedge, but the special kind with a flat bottom. Normally on wedges, both sides are angular.

Despite chart trading hype, I have never found wedges to be amazing things to trade around. Long-term wedges have a habit of disappointing in which direction you think they are going. Short-term wedges, while useful, are a day trader's game, good for several percentage points.

What this wedge tells me is that there is likely to be a brief determination by the market in what general direction BTC wishes to head.

When wedges break formation, they tend to represent increased trade volume, either to the upside or downside.

Just a historical reference concerning fall/winter rallies in BTC, in fall of 2014, into Jan 2015, BTC ultimately decreased in price. With crypto then, it is not a given that winter means rally. There might be some buying in anticipation of a rally which does not follow-through.

Furthermore, I have not seen the market fully capitulate. Sure, bull markets can resume without capitulation, but this tends to happen on the back of really, really good news.

What BTC has done is it just barely begun to enter the doldrums phase of a cryptocurrency stabilization, and now that it has hit that level, it is already trying to break a wedge formation to the upside. Almost as if everyone is thinking, "We're ready for the bull market to continue any day now!!!" It is that type of attitude which often causes a continued bear market, since 'hype buying' to attempt to restart a bull market is insufficient to actually begin one. It is sufficient for blips and pops. It wont sustain a rally to 20k. It turns sour long before then without something else driving it.

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@tradealert did spot this nice bottom formation, likely from a short-close on an hourly chart.

This is actually good news to some extent, because it means shorts are unwilling to risk capital to see BTC go lower. It's too risky of a trade given the odds for them. And this has propelled us into this recent slight recovery from the lows.

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A Shot in the Dark

Unlike many other calls I make, please do not rank this one up there with 'my good ones' because it's really just a hunch and a guess.

My hunch is that traders and hype starters are able to break the BTC wedge to the upside. After all, we have this recent bottom formation to look back at. Furthermore, we're going into fall/winter when "crypto is supposed to rally." This is all good enough for a wedge break to the upside. It may be a pitiful break. Maybe 8k BTC ? Maybe just 7.5k BTC?

And because this is 'the resumption of the bull market' in crypto (supposedly), such a rally may have difficulty going immediately back down to 6k. Unbelief causes prices to stay inflated at times. Such a rally might have a good head and shoulders formation because everyone is on the page that the market is going up now.

I would trust the market more if it went down. If you're looking for near-term trades, though, I give it like 55% odds we break the wedge to the upside. Notice 55%. Other things, I am 70% to 90% sure. Bad news could hit, and this wedge decides to break to the downside.