I hate to tell you this, but if this line gets breached just by one $, BTC is likely to produce a new low for wave 5 of C of 2.
This could bring it down to 5,000$ in an extreme panic low scenario.
The BTC bears showed up right when they had to...
The good thing about this is the wavecross between white wave 1 and 4 in this wave C, which means it is an ending diagonal if this line gets breached and after the final drop, it must go up again. And it means I might be able to buy cheap altcoins one more time.
There is still a possibility that this line will not be breached, but right now it looks like it will be... the wavecross makes it obvious what's planned now. FUD is what's planned.
IF however the line remains unbreached, this is the most likely scenario in my opinion:
The bulls need to work hard now to prevent the drop from happening.
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DISCLAIMER: This post / analysis serves general information purposes only. I am not, and never will be a financial adviser. The material in this post does not constitute any trading advice whatsoever. This is just the way I see the charts and what my trading ideas (from my personal experiences) are. I use chart pattern and Elliott Wave analysis for my trading ideas.
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looks like the bulls still have breath and are alive the minute I'm writing! retesting 12000 as a support
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Here's a tentative discernement:
The SHS that had formed (above the dotted line) reached its target of $11650 (end of circled wave ii), but failed to break below the ascending right triangle that was identified. Now we may be witnessing a reversal.
Still BTC must break above $12300 (dotted line again) to prove itself able to stand on the bullish trend.
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Since there is so much FUD in the market at the moment, I have reduced my portfolio to mainly EOS and STEEM as the future of blockchain technology. I was never a fan of BTC and wish it would be replaced by another scalable and stable coin - it´s simply annoying, that all altcoins depend on a dying technology like BTC.
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that is because almost all trading pairs are against btc. So when BTC value goes down alts dip hard as well. A true trading pair would be against USD, USDT or native currency. I truly blame the exchanges for it. If most coins were traded against fiat you would see bitcoin not affect other coins as much.
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True and I wonder, why the exchanges have so much power? What is their "official" reason to do so?
It just makes no sense....
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Yes, yes. Placing stoploss orders to somewhere $11 400 can be an option, if you play for bulls.
For me A-B-C red scenario is now very realistic (trading view idea is behind the image) and that is what you consider as a wave 4 :
Thank you for the updates, @ew-and-patterns. Following you.
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Who are the bitcoin bears? I see only posts about how btc is going up to the moon. How come no one is posting when to short it?
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I agree with the analysis and I contribute the important inflection points in my opinion (G and F see graph)
I see at this time a very complicated ascending channel, with many resistances (A, B, C and D see graph) and few bulls, to be able at this time to define a clear trend
Where it is going to matter more to keep under the btc so that those who sold the future contracts earn a lot of money, while we small savers are trying to see where the btc goes to maintain our investment.
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I don't think the bitcoin losing value would be such a bad thing.
It could leave room for alt coins to grow more.
Not so good for BTC holders....
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More that 10000$ BTC don't go!
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Well, so let's get some more Bitcoin as long it is on sale!
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Like your post but don't look like bitcoin going down to 5000
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I just love it sir..... Thank you sir for sharing Outstanding perfomance for bitcoin... Thank's for sharing.....
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good to see your analysis - i reckon if it drops below 7500 i will buy a lot more -- at the moment i reckon it is set to gradually climb back towards and above 16000 - upvoted for you -David
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Good post @ew-and-p
Like help me please
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Decent analysis.
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great to see your examination - I figure in the event that it dips under 7500 I will purchase significantly more - right now I figure it is set to step by step move back towards or more 16000 - upvoted for you - David
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The bankers with their BTC futures will cause it to drop to $5K so they can then buy on the cheap for themselves. Remember that's what they do with the silver and gold markets.
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BTC fees are up 20%. People who are using Bitcoins now are naive. Lots of ppl are changing to coins with lower transaction fees.
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Agreed. Still use BTC to buy precious metals. Need to find some dealer that accepts one of the low transaction coins.
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I've been having similar thoughts. I know @phelimint takes Steem: https://steemit.com/steemsilvergold/@phelimint/you-can-now-buy-silver-bullion-using-steem
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Thanks for the tip. Now need to take my steem and get some silver to slay the reptilian bankers fiat.
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😂😂🍾
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I agree with your point here since I was burned once on bitcoin fees just to send from one exchange to another. Now I use LTC to move between exchanges.
I have to wonder though, BTC is the most prevalent base trading pair by far, for all alt-coins. I believe that one of the pillars of price support for BTC is that it is the exclusive, or base, trading pair for so many alt-coins.
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You are right.
Ill get back to using BTC as soon as they have upgraded the blockchain. I use Eth for the moment.
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I confess that there is very little of the bitcoin world, blockchain etc ... however, I have noticed that when the bitcoin goes down, it is like when someone goes back to take impulse and run much faster forward and goes so far that nobody can reach it.
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Squeaky bum time ahead then :)
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Good post @ew-and-p
Like help me please
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i'm bearish too for now
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In your charts, can you add your user name and the steemit website in the right bottom corner.
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good idea. Done
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Well never everything will always go up. We are not far from where you made the inflection point. Wondering if it maybe best ways to mitigate one's crypto portfolio from damages? Move into tether? altcoins?
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I am not changing anything in my portfolio because in my opinion there is no downside risk until this line is breached.
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On Sundays there is on a regular basis this downtrend around the +-4 hours you perform this post. Are you going to perform an update in 8 hours ?
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Next update will be about the breach of trendline or continuation of uptrend. Could be today, yes.
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"this line gets breached"...you talking about the blue line $11,021?
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Yes. Then there is only one last chance left for the bulls (a bounce off 10,000$) to avoid a lower low. It increases downward risk immensely if it happens. I'll keep you guys updated.
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Thank you.
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If BTC drop to 5k it will mean one hell of a launch back to higher end and then a push to ATH. I wont be selling just adding to my position. Thanks for the analysis
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Hopefully for only a quick flip.Within 5 years BTC will be replaced by cheaper transaction coin for the top coin in the market cap. BTC is only hot now due to it's popularity and media coverage.
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If BTC drops to 5k, until lightnong network, it wont have much upward momentum.
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It depends on how it dropped to $5K. if by banker's manipulation with BTC futures then it will pop up when they send it sky high again. If due to other factors then you are probably right and will fad off into history.
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BTC needs another lower low to complete ABC correction so that all the sellers are weeded out. This will give enough momentum to raise prices to new ATH. If not the rebound will be too weak and we will end back up here. Might as well get the low done now and then a nice bull run
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I'm really hoping for some sideways movement. It won't go sideways for a long time. But a more complex correction would be nice.
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bitcoin bounce to 20K soon
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