BTC market is still so small and thinly traded that the biggest players can easily manipulate it. Especially, now when we have this shock "event" (halving). Of course, after the first difficulty after the halving is calculated, the situation will normalize (some thing like one week after the halving).
Also, now the ASIC technology has reached its local max (12-14 nm chips). So, it makes more sense for manufacturers to sell the miners than keep them. That should lead to better decentralization.
So if the scenario you project/predict happens, will it go against the popular belief that the price will hike after the halving? I have a few BTC but i have held on for a few years and would not like to see the price down. Whatever the reason, the price has plunged as I write this.
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Most might think that the price will go up after the halving. It most certainly will but not immediately. I guess it will take several months. Most likely during NOV/16-FEB/17.
Most of the traders, however, think the price will tank during the halving ("sell on news"). So, it depends. Perhaps, it won't do anything dramatic :)
e: if everything goes well, I guess we might see short relief rally immediately after the halving. Some people could have hedged their position, and will buy back/close the shorts.
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