Hey,
I'm a trader and work as a programmer at Forex Software company at the Analysis group, I'll share here my current Idea about how BTC acts.
Disclaimer: This is not a trade advice, ALWAYS do your own research and trade decisions.
First lets go back to 20K could we guessed that price would go down? lets see..
- All prices are taken from via Bitmex charts at 4H mark.
We can see right at the 20K mark a Bearish divergence, with a confirmation under 19K mark. RED knife just sliced the SMA line. A short trade could have been placed with a stop loss Over 20K mark.
Let jump back to current action, Did Bullish Divergence happn ? I think it did, Lets see:
Price pulled back down all the way to 11K which was the first bottom than second bottom at ~12K with a higher RSI, that suggests Bullish Divergence. Long position is suggested with SL Under 11K.
Lets See real time action and try to figure what might happen...
We can see that after Bullish Diverstion we had our first Higher High and Higher Low. current price action are sitting a little over that point which is the second Higher Low suggests a breakout might happen to a Higher High over 17K or break down to about ~11500.
Trading current price action is risky. It looks like a 50-50 trade, I lean to the Long side, risk managment sould be applied which means. stop loss below 12500 support, In case that breaks next stop sould be just under 11K support.
I assume that If 11K breaks BTC should fall down to 8k-9k rage to the next support.
Let me know what do you think about this analysis. and good luck.