This prediction for Bitcoin in 2028 left jaws dropping.
"The price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has surged by approximately 650% since the last Bitcoin halving in 2020. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could reach a price level of $435,000 before the 2028 halving event.
What will be the BTC price at the 2028 halving event?
According to data, the price of Bitcoin has surged by around 658% since the last Bitcoin halving in 2020 and is currently trading around $66,000."
The 2024 Bitcoin halving is set to occur in less than three weeks. If historical chart patterns repeat, Bitcoin's current price of $66,000, if it shows a performance similar to the current cycle until the 2028 halving, would reach $434,280 per unit.
However, post-halving rallies for Bitcoin have seen diminishing returns over the years. Prior to the first halving in 2012, when Bitcoin was nearly worthless, it surged over 12,400% to $12.5. The price of Bitcoin rose by over 5,200% to $650 by the 2016 halving, and by over 1,200% to $8,500 by the 2020 halving.
Bitcoin commentary from a renowned analyst: How far until the peak?
Thus, Bitcoin's average price rallies decreased by 45% in each cycle, dwindling to 658%. If this diminishing return trend repeats, Bitcoin will undergo a 360% rally in the next cycle, resulting in approximately a $303,600 BTC price at the 2028 halving.
Is it Bitcoin's halving or ETFs that are making an impact?
Hao Yang, the Director of Financial Products at Bybit, speaking to Cointelegraph, argues that the recent price increase in Bitcoin is not related to the upcoming halving but is primarily driven by inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
"When considering halving and price trends from a very meticulous quantitative perspective, there is no evidence supporting a positive correlation between the Halving event and BTC price. However, history can be interpreted in many different ways, and while I certainly hope for it to reach $435,000 by 2028, I won't be placing too much reliance on that."
According to a research report by Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas dated February 26th, if Bitcoin ETFs surpass gold ETFs, a six-figure BTC price seems even more possible, which could happen within the next two years.
"Additionally, when Bitcoin ETFs first emerged in 2004, they are growing much faster than gold ETFs. Sam Wouters, the communications director at River, stated in an article dated March 29th that Bitcoin has "accelerated" the price of gold by fivefold."
"Bitcoin is essentially accelerating the orbit of gold by fivefold. The past decade of Bitcoin looks like a compressed version of the last 50 years of gold. It's no wonder some people are salty."