Correction not over... btc would have to break above 10k and then the red 0.5 Fibonacci line to call it a day, but it's hovering around the Fibonacci 0.618 which gives it support at 8500. The volume is still low, the bounce at 7600 had been predicted and was caused by buy orders in that region, which were likely part of laddered orders the next level of which may be found below 7000 this time, others as low as 6000. Then again, we now have a strong downtrend line (dotted) and nothing says that btc can't break out of the triangle - upwards I mean, it's about time... but there's the low volume and the MacD does not yet show a crossover - the last one failed. Best to keep an eye open over the weekend, or have a slave watch the computer 24/7, as stop loss orders may well be triggered by some hunting action - institutions lurking ;)
Ahhh Maestra,
Everyone hates Cassandra. But I fear you are right. Brava!
When I look at my BTC chart I see no signs of a capitulation low occurring.
I'm underwater now, through mine own ignorance. Not a new experience for me because I suck at trading.
But I remain stalwart and steadfast in my conviction that cryptos represent something new and improved in the world of finance and money.
So, while a bit bemused I am not worried.
I attempted a private communication through google+ a few weeks ago but got not reply from you. Did you see it?
It is yet another night when I'm on my third glass of wine, an excellent pinot from an estate in the Williamette valley in Oregon.
I still struggle to fit my stock market methodology to the crypto markets. For now I tolerate losses of 27% in my crypto portfolio and 32% in my kids crypto portfolio. My methods are not loss tolerant, but I've placed myself in learning mode to gather experience in this strange new world.
This excellent pinot has impaired my ability to strike the correct keys. So I better stop now.
Very pleased to see you posting more often. I will be bereft if you take yourself off to other places before we make an email connection.
Ciao bella,
Rick
This foul google has autocorrected pinot into pinto. And I thought I was a barbarian. Post edited for cause.
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Are still of the opinion that we're going to be in a bear market until summer?
What coins are you watching? What are you most optimistic about at the moment?
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This is not the end - it\s not even the beginning of the end.
But I hope it's finally the end of the beginning... look at th top picture,
I compared ETH and Stellar - and while BTC dipped year-lowest yesterday (E) , ETH and XLM did not, they stopped exactly at the same level as before at (C).
Just one more dip I hope - much better than weeks of indecision.
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Should I interpret that to mean you beleive they're tracing up (D) and then soon down (E) to finish their corrections?
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Well I hope the 6k dip will come, that would be better - we could all buy in and feel great about that, and so could all the newcomers, deal of a lifetime - it might also start wobbling upwards now and that so slowly that everybody would still be feeling bad and waiting for that dip to come, just at a later date... please scroll down and see what I posted underneath a minute ago, the picture with the frame - 6k looks rather likely but there is resistance in between. 4k is not likely but even that is possible - don't think so though,
Less than that isn't really... apex of the triangle and all that. FUD is getting lighter, so maybe the governments will now let us have a year...
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Interestingly it hit $6000.01 on binance and is now holding above 7k for the last two days.... Too early to call but but it seems that 6k might have been exactly the amount the powers-that-be wanted it before pulling up on the controls....
It could turn out to be a bull trap, but the problem with driving an equity too low is that the chart would be effectively broken.
Bitcoin is more and more in the hands of the wealthy, and here's a common trait among the wealthy people I've known:
They understand the benefit of taking care of their toys.
A responsible person can get years of use from a thing by being careful with it. Or, you get one fun moment, by smashing it to bits.
With the poor and unwashed (myself included), we tend to have zero impulse control. We're rough with our things. We break stuff. We make messes. We eat more than we should, right? What's really sad is that we rarely learn from our mistakes because we tend to point the blame for our mess at something external....
This is in plain sight when you look at these crypto coin charts for the past year. No thought toward the future. Pure greed (which is universal) combined with a complete lack of perspective/history/longevity ( poor folk mentality).
Bitcoin is probably in better hands now than it was two months ago. Patient hands. Experienced chart makers that will paint the story they want it to tell, which usually involves making a lot of money over many years.
It's not ideal because now only a few are privy to what those plans entail and when they'll be implemented, but it's better than a populist mind flying the plane with no idea where to go.
That's not completely accurate: there was always destination: moon!
This might all sound ironic because here I am pointing at the wealthy for this downturn, but you'd have to be blind and naive to ignore the signs that bitcoin has changed hands. The only people who bought below 7 were people who had money to spend! The folks who got in with a thousand rode their holdings all the way down and didn't have any money to spend.
I'm saying it's probably a good thing to have old money in the pot.
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What you write in your first five paragraphs is basically what Maurice Samuels wrote about in "You Gentiles," it so happens that I was having a discussion about that on minds and google, where history and future tend to be real issues... the likeness is amazing ;)
For the little-educated Percivals, perspective will remain tangential at best because these things simply must be taught.
Humans can't even walk, much less talk if not taught well... this is why majorities are and will remain such a cheap resource for the Happy Few, and why you can nicely see this at work on the charts.
I'm not entirely sure Bitcoin is in different hands now as the remarkable volume these last days likely came from little people who had fled into fiat - it would have been stored at the exchanges... they would have been able to make some nice earnings these last days but should definitely sell now, and buy again in a few days... or maybe not ?
I still expect another dip, and hodlers will be hodlers.
Makes no difference to them how low, as long as it rises again - and the question is simply how fast that is going to happen.
There was and is the impression that large Wall Street entities will not yet buy in but keep riding the FUD train, hoping to keep Crypto low - I don't believe that can work out any longer after all the prolonged fear and what the SEC said - people get used to it.
So I'm hoping for another crass drop and ideally a capitulation volume candle, and then maybe the real players will come out of the brush to dominate the game even more ? But surely they would then want the curves heading upwards ?
We can only guess.
I think if Crypto behaves bit more like the stock market, that won't be such a bad thing for most.
The folks who got in with a thousand rode their holdings all the way down and didn't have any money to spend.
I hope not !! And if so I hope they will just ride back up again.
There were so many chances on the way down to get in and out, in and out and actually add a bit rather than lose all the time - but sure, not everybody likes that sort of thing.
In any case patience is a virtue, and we certainly agree it must be learned ;)
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