The case for Pepsi over Coca Cola.

in buffett •  3 years ago 

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38.6 billion dollars was Coca Cola’s revenue in 2021.
Down from 46.5 billion dollars in 2011.

9.7 billion dollars was the profit in 2021.
Up from 8.5 billion in 2011.

The inflation since 2011 has been 28%, showing every $1 in 2011, would be $1.28 today.

This puts Coca Cola financially worse off, for both revenue and profits.

59.5 billion dollars would be Coke’s revenue if they kept with inflation.
10.9 billion would be the profit.

Coca Cola from 2011 to 2021 dropped in revenue 20 billion dollars accounting for inflation and a billion in profit.

Coca Cola has a market cap of 280 billion dollars currently.

Comparing that, Pepsi is worth 237 billion.

Pepsi made 79 billion dollars in 2021.
Up from 66 billion in 2011.

7.6 billion was the 2021 revenue.
Up from 6.4 billion in 2011.

Adjusted for inflation, Pepsi is also down, but not by as much as Coke.

84.5 billion should be revenue.
8.2 billion should be profit.

Coca Cola is worth over 40 billion dollars more than Pepsi, but has about 30 billion less in revenue and while holding much better margins, it is in a decline, which gets bigger factoring in inflation.

Also, despite revenue going down, the stock keeps going up.

280 billion is today’s market cap.
158 billion was the 2011 market cap.

Coke lost over 10 billion in revenue and also underperformed inflation with profits, but from 2011 to 2021, saw over 100 billion dollars in increase to valuation.

The reason is also pretty simple.

Buybacks
Dividends
Margin emphasis

Coca Cola is undeniably one of the best companies for consistent dividends, which is why people such as Warren Buffett have endorsed it for years.

The issue though is I don’t think that lasts forever.

Companies that focus purely on growing stock prices via giving stock holders dividends and never seem to really innovate or grow are long term doomed.

I’ve written on this a couple times before, but never actually looked at inflation, which shows a pretty bad look.

This is why I actually think Coca Cola is Warren Buffett’s worst investment long term.

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