Recall election polls show Newsom less and less likely to be removed from office.

Looking less and less likely the Newsom recall will succeed. The LV RV gaps are closing and a +8.6 buffer is getting into that territory of needing a massive polling error.

I've generally been skeptical that this had a chance.

Newsom's approval ratings are majority approval. Unlike Gray Davis' approval ratings when he was recalled which were in the 20s!

With mail ballots any sort of hope of a huge turnout advantage is unlikely and Dems have started to show equal enthusiasm in the last month anyways.

And to boot Larry freaking Elder is the presumed replacement candidate. He's leaning into his worst most partisan views, which seems like a really bad strategy when you mathematically need to persuade a lot of Democratic leaning voters to vote for the recall.