In the first eight months of this year, the volume of car exports from China exceeded that of Germany, making it the second largest exporter of cars in the world. At the China International Exhibition of Imported Goods (hereinafter referred to as "CIIE"), "smart travel" became one of the highlights.
Huang Jian, vice president of JPMorgan Chase Bank (China) and president of Global Corporate Bank China, said at the "Forum of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and Intellectual Mobility" held within the framework of CIIE: "It was unimaginable 20 years ago. the export of cars was only 20,000, and now it has exceeded 2 million, which is close to the first in the world.Against the backdrop of a global shortage of chips, high raw material prices and obstacles in the supply chain, the growth of Chinese cars contrary to the trend deserves attention. we are proud. It also prompted us to think about the next point of growth and the direction of innovation in the automotive sector."
The development of vehicles based on new energy sources has also directly affected the growth of related support services. Wang Yang, founder and CEO of Nenglian Zhidian, told reporters during the CIIE that as of September 2022, sales of passenger cars powered by new energy sources in China accounted for 67% of total global sales, making it the largest country in the world by sales of cars powered by new energy sources. By 2030, it is expected that there will be 120 million new vehicles, and at least 20 million public charging piles will be needed.The total investment in construction may require 2 trillion yuan.Overall value, this is a trillion dollar market.
Intelligence is the main topic of development
The data shows that there are currently 300 million cars in China, and the number of cars per 1,000 people is about 200. In the future, it is expected to reach a peak level of 400, that is, the number of cars in China will reach 550 million to 600 million. Wang Yang predicts that in 2028, the number of fuel-powered cars will reach its peak, and then it will gradually decrease, and the number of electric vehicles will continue to grow.
"In September of this year, the export of cars powered by new energy sources more than doubled compared to last year, and the growth rate was much higher than the overall growth rate of exports of the automotive industry. -temporary factors that cause the rapid development of vehicles on new energy.The penetration rate of electric vehicles continues to grow, which is a short-term increase.An important logic of development.China once proposed to reach the target level of penetration of new 20% of energy vehicles in 2025. Now it seems that this goal was achieved three years earlier this year, and the penetration rate is expected to reach about 29% higher in October," Huang Jian said.
JPMorgan Chase told reporters that the penetration rate of cars powered by new energy sources in China is expected to reach 46.3% by 2025. The goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality is constantly advancing.Consumers of new energy vehicles are relatively young, and the proportion of groups aged 25 to 35 is close to half.These factors are favorable for long-term sustainable development. this industry.
In addition, it is expected that with the continuous improvement of the production capacity and quality of batteries, the cost of batteries will gradually decrease. JPMorgan predicts that by 2025, the cost of a kilowatt-hour of electricity in a battery may fall to $100 or less. Given the declining cost of batteries, continuous improvement of chargers and strong political support, JPMorgan Chase is optimistic about the development of vehicles based on new energy sources in China.
When it comes to the future direction of innovation, intelligent driving cannot be ignored. Huang Jian believes that the two main directions of development — new energy and intelligence — lead to a new round of changes in the automotive industry.
In his opinion, autonomous driving is a general trend in the medium and long term. Currently, the L2 level has become the standard configuration for most domestic independent brands, but the introduction of autonomous driving technology above the L3 level requires further support from the government.
International investors remain optimistic about China's "green theme", and international financial institutions have also been committed to supporting the energy transition in recent years.Servicing new travel and new technologies is one of JPMorgan's strategic business priorities in China. It is reported that since 2015, JPMorgan has helped China's leading financial institutions and companies, including many new energy companies, issue environmental bonds, ESG and sustainable development bonds totaling almost $26.9 billion.
Accelerated growth of related support services
In fact, the development of new energy vehicles has also directly influenced the growth of related support services provided by charging piles.
"China is the world's largest market for vehicles powered by new energy sources and the largest market for charging services. Unlike the countries of Europe and America, China is dominated by general-use chargers and special chargers. Public charging also continues to improve," Wang Yang told reporters. At the same time, the unbalanced development of the charging infrastructure, the fragmentation of charging operators, the low utilization rate of charging poles and the difficulties with making a profit by charging operators have long plagued the industry, which provides a huge space for new energy service providers to develop. .
In January of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Department published a policy suggesting that by the end of the "14th five-year plan", the possibilities of supporting electric vehicle charging in my country will be further improved and moderately advanced, a balanced, intelligent and efficient charging infrastructure system will be formed that can meet the needs of more than 2,000 electric vehicles, 10,000 electric vehicle charging needs. This has laid the market and political foundation for the sustainable development of the charging pile industry.
"In the long term, we believe that the battery replacement mode is an important addition to the entire charging market, but due to my country's energy infrastructure, cost and other reasons, it will not become the main method of power supply," Wang Yang said. Taking into account the charging efficiency, 800V high-voltage fast charging can become the main the direction of the market in the future, which requires the simultaneous modernization of existing equipment and vehicles with new energy to achieve more efficient energy recharge.
It is worth noting that the outstanding Chinese grid companies of the new energy industry have also gone abroad, including electric vehicles, batteries, etc., and have won a higher market share in the world.
As one of the largest and fastest growing electric vehicle charging service providers in China, as of June 30, 2022, Nenglian Smart Electric's business covers 358 cities across the country, connecting more than 44,000 charging stations and more than 400,000 charging pistols. Wang Yang told reporters that he was looking forward to introducing charging products, charging service solutions and energy digitization methods implemented in China to more international partners. "Currently, we have independently developed universal DC machines with a capacity of 60-160 kW, smart home chargers, commercial chargers and other products that meet European export standards and have the possibility of servicing to open the European market."