I don't think I was explaining my self clearly enough.
You were but I'm not sure you understand that nobody can block a decentralised exchange.
Further there is no foolproof way to block people from accessing things if they are determined so people in China may still be able to use non-Chinese exchanges with a little effort.
I'm talking more about the large scale speculative trading that's going on right now through exchanges such as OKcoin.
So am I. It will just shift to non Chinese exchanges and DEXs. When people think there is easy money to be made they will take the minimal extra effort it takes to do this.
A short term drop in the number of total traders may also be seen as some as an opportunity to buy in cheaper than they otherwise would be able to.
Sooner or later those that left will be pulled back in once they perceive the rewards outweigh the extra effort required.
It is basic economics.
I wasn't implying that you can successfully block a decentralized exchange. You will not be able to because of the shear fact that the network is multi nodal. What I'm saying is...
If this hypothetical right out ban did exist, then all Chinese based exchanges would disappear post ban. There would be no Chinese based marketplaces where speculative trading occurs, since it would be illegal. As you stated it would be forced to out of country exchanges.
But if the Chinese government filters access to those exchanges and penalizes people who attempt to circumvent it, then you would see a reduction in Chinese traders, which account for a large number of current speculative traders.
My point is to highlight exactly what you pointed out, that there would be a drop in the number of total traders, and the price would drop, but it will give new buyers a chance to fill the gap and pick up all the volume at reduced prices.
I wanted to highlight that a ban wouldn't have no effect. It would have a significant effect in the short duration, as we saw today with the near instantaneous drop over a simple rumor. Something that US buyers would capitalize on.
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So I'm not sure what additional point you are making though. It seems we are in agreement.
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I don't think I was ever in disagreement really, I just wanted to develop your thought in a comment and give all these steemians something to read! Comments are the core of the community outside of posts.
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Of course :)
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I read somewhere though, most of chinese transactions are p2p off exchanges right now, so what I was saying actually isn't true simply because all the current transactions are already p2p and as such the chinese ban on marketplaces wont actually effect anything except investor sentiment.
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Interesting.
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