None of the G20 nations have implemented policies aligned with the Paris agreement's objective of restricting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius while meeting their equitable share of emission cuts. This evaluation, based on data collected until December 5th by the Climate Action Tracker, coincides with the assembly of leaders in Dubai for the Cop28 conference.
The assessment evaluates each country against its "fair share" in diminishing greenhouse gas emissions, considering factors such as historical emissions from wealthier nations, which could augment their responsibility to take decisive actions. It also accounts for economic capacity and welfare implications.
Eight G20 nations—Argentina, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Turkey, Canada, Mexico, and Indonesia—would all receive a "critically insufficient" rating if solely judged based on their fair share contributions. This rating implies that their climate policies and commitments indicate minimal to no action, foreseeing a rise in temperatures by 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels throughout this century.
Although some of these countries, like Turkey and Mexico, have lower historical emissions leading to less stringent requirements compared to high-income nations, their anticipated future emissions remain excessively high, placing them in the Climate Action Tracker's direst category.
For instance, Argentina's projected emissions for 2030 are 398 million metric tonnes, surpassing the 1.5C-compatible fair share limit of 191 million metric tonnes. Concerns have arisen following the recent election of far-right president Javier Milei, who has dismissed climate breakdown as a "socialist lie." The Argentinian representatives at Cop28, holdovers from the previous government, lack substantial influence. Milei has hinted at following Trump's footsteps by potentially withdrawing Argentina from the Paris agreement.
Similarly, South Korea's estimated emissions of 654 million metric tonnes by 2030 significantly surpass the 235 million metric tonnes limit in a 1.5C-compatible fair share scenario.
Moreover, countries like China, Brazil, Australia, the EU, and the UK fall under the category of "highly insufficient," as their policies and commitments do not align with the 1.5C temperature increase limit when considering their historical emissions.
The UK, under a fair share model, would need to achieve net negative emissions of 152 million metric tonnes by 2030 to comply with the Paris 1.5C target. However, the UK is far from this goal, with emissions estimated at around 367 million metric tonnes by 2030.
China stands as the largest emitter within the G20, with emissions projected to peak at 14.3 billion metric tonnes in 2026. In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva aims to curb deforestation and safeguard Indigenous rights after his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro's tenure. Despite decreased deforestation rates, Brazil remains a significant fossil fuel producer with a highly polluting agricultural sector, and plans to collaborate with the OPEC oil cartel and hold oil drilling auctions in ecologically sensitive regions.
The assessment also categorizes five G20 nations—the US, Japan, South Africa, Germany, and India—as "insufficient" in their efforts. While their policies may stabilize or reduce emissions, the pace isn't swift enough to prevent exceeding the 1.5C warming threshold.
Indonesia and India anticipate rising emissions, though this is partly accounted for in the fair share distribution.
The US, with a forecast of over 5 billion metric tonnes in 2030 emissions, surpasses the 1.9 billion metric tonnes allocated by analysts under a 1.5C-compatible fair share model. Biden's initiatives, including the Inflation Reduction Act, demonstrate progress in clean energy investments, but concerns linger over potential regression with a change in administration.
Germany, like the UK, needs to become a net emissions absorber by 2030, aiming for a reduction of 104 million metric tonnes, but its forecasted emissions reach 472 million metric tonnes by that time.
Conversely, several non-G20 countries, such as Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria, align their policies and commitments with a 1.5C global warming limit under a fair share scenario.
According to Leonardo Nascimento of the Climate Action Tracker, the world appears on track for a disastrous 3C warming by the century's end, an improvement from a decade ago but still insufficient for a sustainable future. Urgent international cooperation and robust domestic policies across all nations are crucial to address this issue promptly. Further delays in enhancing targets and policies intensify climate change and elevate the challenge of reducing emissions later. The determination of what constitutes a "fair share" relies on diverse government perspectives and interests, considering factors like historical contributions and capabilities in addressing the problem, as compiled in various effort-sharing studies.