The author believes that the main cause of market wide shock is the long and short game is too intense, which is mainly reflected in two aspects: first, the rate of discount rate conversion frequently, the market long and short is expected to be very unclear.
Btc
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If the money-making effect is taken as the standard to measure the strength of the market, then the current market is undoubtedly back to the weak pattern compared with the situation a month ago. Then the market is in danger of entering a bear market if it continues to fail to reverse this weakness.
01
Currency trader
Strategy analysis
Recently, the trend of the market is like an electrocardiogram, which often ups and downs, leaving a very ugly lower shadow line on the time-sharing K line. Most trend traders are depressed, except for some quantified HFT teams that are doing well. Some analysts said, this kind of horizontal trading wide shock trend is the main force in order to create a large market burst warehouse do bureau, however, the market as a whole burst warehouse volume and no obvious increase, the main effort to seek the three melon two jujube profit is not likely. In addition, if the main force really want to through the needle up and down to create a burst, this amplitude is still far from enough, because most currency amplitude is not more than 5%, unless the leverage ratio is more than 20 times, otherwise it is difficult to burst.
The author believes that the main cause of the market wide shock is the long-short game is too intense, which is mainly reflected in two aspects: first, the rate of discount rate conversion frequently, the market long-short expectations are very unclear; Second, the position of the market is very awkward, although the short-term decline has been in place, but there is no strong logic to do more. Therefore, the market will continue to continue the short - term sideways shock trend, until the market to choose the direction. As to how the market deduces next, the author thinks, the probability that raises after depressing first is bigger. As a result of this round of large declines, the bottom structure of the market is often a double bottom, or even a triple bottom structure, and most currencies only proved the first bottom on July 17, the occurrence of a second dip is completely normal.
Although the market may have the last wave of upside opportunities, the author is very worried about the future trend of the market, because the whole digital currency market is going through a "wave of sand, winner-takes-all" process of "Hong Kong stock conversion". Only bitcoin independently strengthened in the market, while other currencies fell unilaterally. The market value of bitcoin increased by a step every other time period. Even in the period of decline, bitcoin still has a relatively good resilience compared with other currencies. Recently, if you take a closer look at the movements of bitcoin pairs in each currency, almost 95 percent of them have fallen. If bitcoin's high market capitalization is a normal process, it also means that many currencies will enter a long period of killing valuations.
From the direction of the market's highest wind - biased funds, retreat strategy undoubtedly become their near-term combat guidelines. Take several well-known pattern plates in the currency circle for example, VDS completely flutters, BRC recently flash crash, EGT once fell by more than 40% in the intraddish, even so for the head project, small project is even more difficult to sustain, which also verifies what mentioned in the previous article, the risk appetite of the market starts to decline gradually. If investors are holding on to their tokens for these projects and want to wait for an opportunity to turn the tables, they should count their blessings.
02
Currency trader
Market analysis
BTC: confirm the pressure drop when the shock height reaches near 11000 for two consecutive times. In the case of 30 days of superimposed suppression, the probability of short-term breakthrough of 11000 pressure level is low. Trend has been horizontal for many days, recently to change the disk window, it is expected that today and tomorrow will be the direction of choice, change the direction of the disk for the downward. If 9056 is confirmed as strong support again in this round of callback, a strong double-bottom structure will be formed in the technical form, and then the rebound will be more powerful, with a high probability of breaking through 11,000. If 9056 falls, it is recommended that investors firmly exit.
ETH: linked bitcoin, which also has a double dip, can be sold on the upside or wait for a pullback. Short-term pressure level: 250; Support level 192.
LTC: the category with the largest increase in this round of market, the decline is still smaller than that of mainstream currencies except bitcoin. There is strong demand to cover the decline in the future, so it is right to sell at any time.
EOS: from the bottom up, high and low points rebound more than 30%, short-term rebound has been in place. Aftermarket with the market wave with the flow, but good elasticity, depth adjustment can stroke rebound.
OKB: in the article "domestic Taiwan dollar boom is imminent, will repeat the bull market", OKB has main fund to raise recently, will accelerate the rise in the short term. In the past two days, OKB has increased by nearly 30%, basically fulfilling the prediction of the previous article. As the trend has broken through the previous tight concentrated area, and set a new high so far this year, it is expected that there will be a short term confirmation of a step back, after which there is still room to rise. Short-term support bit: 2.1; Short-term pressure level: 2.9.
HT: mainstream Taiwan leading varieties, chip structure is very stable, makers high control plate, began to speed up the stage, but the market has not reached the end. From the perspective of the development momentum, there is the possibility of a new record high, after all, the fire money with deep pockets does have the ability to do so, but here to emphasize, the author only suggests that the holders do not guess the top, rather than let us go chasing high. Important support levels: 4; Important pressure level: 5.2
BNB: you're right. With such a large deal, you'll get away with not being a value investor for at least half a year.
EGT: the fall on July 17 has been repaired, but the loss is complete. Advise to run for your life.