機械錶如何淡出市場？ How would Mechanical watch fade out?

最近看到 @sumhat 所寫的 《奢侈品机械表将在二十年内退出历史舞台》，我喜愛科技產品，又兼為業餘愛錶人士，對 Apple Watch 帶來的衝擊感受尤深，雖然我大致認同文中的觀點，不過卻希望作一些補充，嘗試預測一下機械錶退出市場的情況。

Recently, I read the article written by @sumhat concerning the situation of mechanical watch industry, and he predict the mechanical watches will be phasing out within 20 years. As a watch lover and tech geek, I feel the impact of Apple Watch and I have some view on how the mechanical watch industry will involve.

智能手錶或是未來方向 Smart Watch Should be the future

雖然我喜愛科技產品，亦一直有留意 Apple Watch 的發展方向，不過之前的智能手錶於我而言未算太過吸引，有不少評測都指出或許有卡頓的情況，而且當時支援的 App 亦未算完善；然而，隨着 Apple 的不斷發展，現在已經成功吸引我，最近推出的 Apple Watch Series 3 不僅效能更快，而且更有 eSIM 可以直接 LTE 上網和接聽電話，亦即使用者可以不必攜帶 iPhone 一同使用，可以方便地使用語音輸入回覆訊息，配上無線耳筒甚至可以進一步使用朗讀功能「閱讀」文章，或許只是在處理某些工作上才需要使用 iPhone。

不攜帶智能手機外出彷彿是現代人難以想像的事情，不過隨着科技不斷發展，假如智能手錶有更佳方法呈現文字的話，相信便於攜帶和使用的智能手錶甚至可以取代智能電話。

Apple Watch is becoming better and well-developed. The new Apple Watch Series 3 can process faster, with eSIM to connect LTE; as such, the user can perform different tasks on Apple Watch. When smart watches become more advance and have a better solution to present texts, smart watch may replace the use of smart phone.

Apple Watch 的 Siri 錶面已經懂得自動顯示恰當的資訊 (From: WatchAware)

健康考慮 Health Concern

另外，除了方便之外，Apple Watch 更能保障使用者的健康安全，Apple Watch 不斷強調健康功能，在 Series 3 中又加強了心跳監測功能，將會在不同時間監測心率，甚至可以在心率不正時預先警告，花幾千元保障自己的健康似乎相當划算，Apple 甚至考慮將 Apple Watch 售予保險公司，健康功能將會是智能手錶普及的一大因素。

Besides the convenience Apple Watch provided, Apple Watch can monitor the user's health condition. Apple Watch is focusing on sport and health, and Apple even had meeting with Aetna and see the feasibility to bring Apple Watch to Aetna's customers. Putting a few thousands for health and convenience on an Apple Watch sounds like a great deal.

為奢華而犧牲方便？Sacrificing convenience for finesse?

談了這麼多智能手錶的優點，究竟機械錶會如何淡出市場呢？

And so, how would mechanical watch fade out?

其實機械錶的發展並不是無風無浪，在石英錶出現後，不少低檔鐘錶的市場已經為石英錶佔去，畢竟石英錶跳時準確之餘（補充資料：石英錶每年只有數秒偏差，但每日+-5秒的機械錶已經可謂精準），造價更為便宜，基本上數十、乃至幾百塊錢已經有交易。
不過機械錶依然屹立不搖的原因則在於其造工精妙，我並不認同 @sunhat 所言「機械錶的工藝已經不算複雜」。我認同電子產品的設計精密，不過機械錶單純採用機械設計，可以在細小的錶殼中造出兩地時間、萬年曆、三問、陀飛輪等功能，實在是匠心獨運，所以才能吸引不少愛錶人士趨之若鶩。

In fact, mechanical watch industry had faced the challenge of quartz watches. Quartz watches have a better accuracy and lower price; however, the mechanical watch industry is still standing its ground because of its fined craftsmanship.

陀飛輪真的不複雜嗎？(From: Wikipedia / Credit: Greubel Forsey)

不過最關鍵的，還是智能手錶和機械錶的衝突，以及使用者所作的犧牲。坦白說，另外，機械錶和智能手錶的最大衝突在於兩者難以共存，其他不少奢侈品諸如各種不同首飾，雖然無實際作用，卻無其他產品與其爭奪位置，不過倘若使用者打算使用智能手錶，又如何同時佩帶機械錶？無論同時戴在單手，或是雙手各戴一隻，都有畫蛇添足的感覺；機械錶明顯是一件奢侈品，畢竟要看時間，只需要數百元的石英錶已能做到，而愛錶人士亦願意犧牲確準度（以及響鐘，多地時間等功能），選擇使用機械錶，但當智能手錶的功能逐漸增多，使用者又能否為機械錶作如此巨大的犧牲？

Nevertheless, The key is the conflict between smart watch and mechanical watch, and the sacrifice that the users have to made. Mechanical watches are definitely luxury goods, and the practical usage may not be important; however, wearing two watches with fashion is not an easy task. That is why the mechanical watch is fading out. The digital watch cannot replace mechanical watch because the users can endure inaccuracy in exchange to finesse. Would the user sacrifice so much convenience for the mechanical watch?

我就是正正處於這種糾結中，Apple Watch 確實方便，我亦相當感興趣，或許我在初時會替換佩帶機械錶和 Apple Watch，不過在體驗過其方便有效後，我會否漸漸轉為只佩帶 Apple Watch 呢？那我又如何談得上「愛錶」呢？

首當其衝的是中、低檔手錶市場 Mid-end and low-end market will bear the brunt

如石英錶衝擊機械錶的情況相似，最受智能手錶影響的，將會是價錢接近於 Apple Watch 的中、低檔手錶，亦即大約500 至 1000 美金的機械錶，例如 Tissot、Mido、Hamilton 等，因為這些手錶的「奢華度」不足，倒不如戴上智能手錶，既享有功能，又不失雅致；其實相關的瑞士手錶業目前已經受到不少影響，而隨着智能手錶的逐步發展，帶來的衝擊將會愈漸兇猛，就在 Apple Watch Series 3 發布當日，擁有不少中、低檔機械錶品牌的 Swatch 集團股價已蒸發達十億美元。

如果情況持續發展，相信其他更高階的機械錶亦將會遭智能手錶淘汰。

Due to the insufficiency of luxury, **the one who bear the brunt will be the mid-end and low-end mechanical watch industry, such as Tissot, Mido, Hamilton, etc. **The Swatch Group had lost a billion when Apple Watch Series was released. However, the high-end market would not stay out of it.

還有期望 Last Wish

談了這麼多，但機械錶真的沒有生存空間嗎？倒也未必，只是會朝向更為小眾，甚至收藏品的階段。
的確，如果智能手錶成為現代人必需品，同時佩帶機械錶實在不太適合，不過機械錶之所以能持續至今，一直為人傾心，正因為它是男人在正式場合上少有的裝飾品，它表現着佩帶者的品味和個性，所以儘管智能手錶持續發展，我期望機械錶仍會一些正式場合上佩帶的奢侈品，人們願意脫下先進的智能手錶，再次回味機械錶之美。
只是，屆時的機械錶將會更趨昂貴、小眾，畢竟大規模的製錶工場已經難以支持，只會剩下小型而高級的手作工場負隅頑抗，機械錶將會傾向為收藏品的行列。

As I discussed above, will mechanical watches vanish one day? Maybe not, but they will become niche, or even become collections. If the smart watch become a part of every day carry, even the mechanical watch lovers may feel odd to wear two watches. However, mechanical watch is so popular because mechanical watches are the few accessory available for man. I hope, in the near future, mechanical watch will be part of the formal dressing, and people are willing to put down the smart watch and enjoy the beauty of mechanical watches.
If so, the price tag of mechanical watch would be even higher, because only a few small workshop with exquisite craftsmanship can survive. Mechanical watchs will be more a collections.

From: Wikimedia / Credit: Zane Loke

歡迎討論，如果大家喜歡這篇文章，不妨看看我上一篇有關 iPhone X 的文章啊！

Discussion welcomed. If you like this, you may want to see my precious article :) Thanks!

為什麼我支持 iPhone X | Why do I support iPhone X