Nate Silver is basing this on one flash poll by CNN. A flash poll that had a notably higher amount of Republicans in it compared to prior years. And even among that sample, Biden's speech was very well received and shifted the viewers.
What is happening to this dude? He's transforming into Matt Taibbi even on polling analysis. He wouldn't nearly be this dumb at 538. I feel like this is the issue with all these dudes that go to Substack. Without any editors as guardrails or colleagues to check their takes, they go down this spiral where they keep doubling down on their own wrong take.
Like Nate Silver has been so invested in this idea that Biden is senile that when he delivered a good SOTU, he can't just say it was a good SOTU.
Dude wanted Biden to do interviews and speeches. Biden does a long speech to a national audience. "And that's why this is bad news for Joe Biden"