I'm of the opinion that conspiracy theories, even with their trillions of variations have on very rare occasions got their conspiracies correct. A broken clock is right twice a day after-all.
But the odds are considerably worse than that parable. Their track record is more like 10 to 10 trillion.
The internet has trillions of different conspiracies. Even for 1 event, there can be thousands and thousands of different conspiracies of which only one can be correct, and most of the time, non are correct.
That's a losing record.
However I should clarify my position about conspiracies never happening because I don't stand by that. Here is what I do believe:
Most conspiracies are bullshit and are not backed by empirical evidence.
Conspiracies are the wrong way to advance freedom and grow our mentality of a civil society.
We should be focusing on first principles instead of trillions of wacky conspiracies which distract away from real freedom.
By pushing away rational people from liberty, you are actually indirectly creating more statists.
Actually, I've been frequently told that I'm not libertarian because I don't believe in things like lizard aliens or sandy hook being staged and I have to explain the difference between liberty and conspiracy lunatics.
These people, who may be open to libertarian first principles, are sadly pushed into the statist camp because they haven't had first principles explained to them, and they don't want to be on the "wacky" side of the spectrum.
Stick to first principles and you will create more libertarians. Promote conspiracies over first principles and you create more statists.
That's the reality.