Context

Wagerr is a sports betting blockchain technology currently in development. They have a very well thought out whitepaper. I am currently employed as a data scientist at a company that is heavily involved in the sports betting world, so this is actually one of the spaces that I know fairly well. I love this idea and I love their plan, so I bought into the ICO. I will not try to explain how it all works in this post, as it's been explained well by many others before, but I urge you to check them out. Their ICO sold out with $17 million raised. So now what?

The Hype is Dead

Wagerr's mainnet is not ready for launch, and is at least a few months away it seems. In the meantime, ICO participants have been notified via email and the Wagerr slack channel about how to receive an intermediary WGR token, deposited to the Waves wallet. This token can also be bought and sold through the Waves wallet, and will be exchangeable at a 1:1 ratio with the real Wagerr token once the mainnet is launched. Understandably, they are not pushing a lot of hype around an intermediary token, and although they say they are talking to large exchanges, I have a feeling most exchanges will just want to wait until the real token is released.

Supply and Demand

So, that leaves us with a large quantity of WGR being held by ICO participants on the Waves wallet. Some people get impatient and some people were only looking to profit off the ICO and then dump, so naturally there are some people looking to liquidate. That accounts for the supply, but what about the demand?

• There was no big announcement made to the public about the availability of the intermediary token
• The token is only available on the exchange within the Waves wallet
• It is not organically discoverable within the Waves wallet. You'd need to intentionally search for it, and even then sort through all of the unofficial tokens looking to scam you.

So, the demand really isn't there, and won't be until it shows up on major exchanges or the mainnet launches. When there is supply and no demand, the price plummets. WGR ended the ICO at $0.10 per coin. It's currently trading around $0.054, almost a 50% discount off of the ICO price. Until the mainnet is launched and/or it's listed on major exchanges, I don't think the price will rise much. It could even fall more.

Price Increases on the Horizon

I'm actually extremely thankful that WGR has not been listed on large exchanges yet, that the mainnet has not launched, and that the team hasn't been heavily publicizing the intermediary token. I made a decent sized investment in the ICO, which has now lost almost half its value, but ideally i'd like to invest even more. Listing on larger exchanges and the mainnet launch are just about guaranteed unless something went catastrophically wrong. The success of the technology is never guaranteed, but those two things are fairly certain. Both of those events are going to provide large boosts to demand.

My Plan

I believe that if I accumulate WGR over the next couple months, or however long it's in this situation, then I will see large profits once there are announcements about mainnet readiness and listing on major exchanges. What I do from there is still not decided. The price of WGR may fluctuate up or down in the meantime, but I feel fairly certain that WGR will remain very discounted until those announcements are made. As long as the current situation persists, I plan on investing a set amount every week. This way, if the price continues to go down in the meantime, I will get some exposure to that increased discount. When it's all said and done, I'll let you know how it turned out ;)

Disclaimer

None of this is investment advice. I'm just sharing my personal plan and you can use it how you see fit.

Thanks for reading!