Don’t forget my blog from 10 months ago Rise of Hard Money is a Harbinger of Misery, from 5 months ago End of democracy and a Civil COLD War approaches and from 3 months ago “massive poverty coming to the U.S.A. and Western civilization”.
Corona Virus is a Totalitarian Trojan Horse
It’s not clear yet but it appears that the count of SARS-CoV-2 infections cited for the U.S.A. may be overstated by as much as 90% (i.e. 10X) to as little as only ~10% (i.e. 1.1X) overstated. If it’s the former the mortality could be closer to high single or low double-digits than closer to low single-digits percentages if it’s the latter outcome (for the case fatality ratio (CFR) whereas there’s also infection fatality ratio (IFR)). The significant incidence in the West of co-morbidities such as multiple chronic infections and geriatric age could also be a major factor in the outcome of the mortality rate.
I’ll guess it will be in the middle range and total cited infections will be overstated by maybe a factor of 33–50% as all samples collected during the frantic, hysteria during March are processed. The main impact of that presumption will be that a random person who tests positive will have 33–50% random chance of not being infected. But not all people tested have the same symptoms so a person who tested positive but doesn’t have symptoms that are distinguishable from annual influenza flu such as respiratory distress (nor some other epidemiological situation that raises risk) would have a very high probability of not being infected (i.e. false positive) even though they have a positive test result.
COVID-19 symptoms compared to other common conditions: slide 26
So a possible ramification of that is the potentially Kafkaesque, onerous violations of civil liberties and rights that the CDC and WHO may be planning for those who test positive or who had alleged close contact (e.g. living in the same household, working in the same location) with someone who tested positive. Eventually they’re stating we reach a juncture of intensive community spread then the only people — that will be whitelisted from the onerous restrictions on freedom — will be those who have presumably acquiesced to their forced vaccinations and Bill Gates’ ID2020 which I wrote about in the Updates section of my prior blog Coronavirus Panic Became Necessary Because Testing Was [Intentionally] Too Late. Perhaps this is overly paranoid. I might have some myopia (very lacking of sleep). Let’s observe how this situation progresses.
I will suggest you read all of my comments posted as username ‘FYI’ on the following two blogs:
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=8627
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=8587
Manufactured, Economic Shock Minsky Moment
“It’s called the ‘American Dream’ because you have to be asleep to believe it.” — George Carlin
Armstrong blogged Is this a Staged Political Coup on a Grand International Level?:
[…]
By the time the dust settles, the financial damage will be beyond measure…i really believe the only reason why they are doing this now is because no statistics are available to measure the collapse in sales, tax receipts, economic activity. Goldman says 24% collapse in GPD, but I really doubt these politicians even grasp what this does to any recovery, thinking there will be a quick snap back recovery is delusional…nothing like this has ever happened, man made, and they think getting funding now to businesses is going to solve the problem they have created….permanent damage has been done not only to our economy but the world since we buy so much from them, travel and spend money there and circulate freely.
I think an economic collapse happening in real time is unprecedented and will surpass that of the 1929 crash…all man made, through inception and bad policy choices and bad advice from academics…
[…]
This is a photo [and chart] running around among the Democrats, cheering the destruction of the economy, for they are counting on this to overthrow Trump. But this does not stop there. This is a coordinated effort by the left to also overthrow Merkel and force the capitulation of Germany and its long-held policy against inflation. They have succeeded in breaking the will of Germany as Merkel has thrown in the towel. The Deep State has been trying to overthrow Trump desperately. What the WHO and the CDC have orchestrated is beyond belief.
[…]
They have put out these scenarios to justify destroying the economy under the claim there will not be enough beds to help people. China built hospitals to handle it in days. The WHO and CDC have chosen to destroy the economy rather than expand hospital capacity. I am sorry, but no one in their right mind would have done this. I am sorry, but all the information I am getting from direct sources are starting to paint this as a political coup on an international level. The climate change was just running into too much resistance so they needed another approach. Everyone knows I hate conspiracy theories based on just speculation. Even Diane Feinstein and others sold their investments with the turn of the ECM, including bonds! I know of high-level Europeans who did the same.
This global scale, egregious economic shock will be an unmitigated disaster and is an irrecoverable wound in Western civilization because of our high indebtedness and corrupt/acrimonious politics. The stimulus will be printed like mad to try to reinflate the Western bubble, but it’s too late as the damage is done and the virus will come back again after the “back to work” lifting of quarantines.
Armstrong blogged Failure of Coronavirus Bill to Address Economic Collapse:
The relief for small businesses is not adequate. A tax credit for some small businesses for 50% of wages paid to employees during the coronavirus crisis is absurd. Most have been ordered to be closed so there were no wages and they had to fire employees so they could collect unemployment. They need business loans suspended and property taxes. That [continued firing to collect unemployment] will put pressure on states to lift the absurd closures.
Trump would want to penalize States which continue lockdowns indefinitely. This may be one of tools for enforcing his wishes, analogous to how he capped the mortgage deduction to weaken and/or politically pressure California. Democrats would also not want to reward corporations who are not sustaining nor increasing employment. The House Democrats even tried (but apparently failed?) to insert a stipulation that any companies receiving aid would have to pay $15 minimum wage. And they were trying to insert Green New Deal clauses, a ‘digital dollar’ (c.f. also) and instant voter registration along with unequivocal absentee balloting so they can enable more illegal aliens to vote.
This may foster continuing economic and civil order collapse in the leftist States that want to resist Trump’s call for an early end to lockdowns and a reopening of the U.S. economy. Warm, southerly, conservative States or counties with low viral spread may benefit the most from returning most people back to work asap. Pressuring the leftist States to capitulate should also their memebot’s anger towards Trump a step closer to automaton, “foaming at the mouth” violence — which ties into my prior point about the June/July civil unrest projected by Armstrong’s computer.
If there’s enough of a bounce this Summer for people to sell their homes, the exodus to warmer, southerly States could accelerate.
The markets will soon realize the stimulus bill is going to encourage increased firings until States capitulate on the absurd lockdowns. Precisely the outcome the infiltrated Marxist coup wants is to train the people to become dependent on the Marxist concept of Universal Basic Income (UBI) to displace actual production so as to plunge our nation into pestilence and megadeath. Perhaps I’m being overly dramatic but we may not be that many years away from significant lurch into TEOTWAWKI outcome if the current trend continues unabated and unmitigated.
To help readers inform their judgments about the threat model ahead, I believe the following two quotes to be factual statements.
CDC is a Private Organization – Not Government!
Some people have questioned my concern over both the CDC and John Hopkins University. These are PRIVATE organizations – NOT GOVERNMENT! The CDC sources of funding are predicated on the fact that it is a private 501(c)(3) public charity, like the Clinton Foundation.
Is Bloomberg Behind the John Hopkins University Virus Map that Has Scared the World?
There are some who are starting to question if this is a deliberate coup orchestrated by the left on a global scale because all the socialistic systems they have created are collapsing and will be unsustainable come 2021. The strange coincidence is that Michael Bloomberg has donated $1.8 billion to John Hopkins University. That donation amount would naturally result in them asking how high if they were asked to jump.
[…]
Some people have wondered who is behind the John Hopkins University map. Is there a political connection or is this just academic incompetence? I believe it clearly warrants investigation. The people behind this graphic should be hauled into the Senate under subpoena. What they have done with a misleading graphic is virtually overthrowing all human rights and every principle of liberty that so many generations have fought for and died. My family fought in every war since the American Revolution. Even Germany has been talking about declaring Emergency Powers for one year. We have others claiming the virus will last 18 months to clearly impact the 2020 elections. The threats to our liberty are far worse than an invasion by China or Russia for that matter.
The red dots of John Hopkins University are outright propaganda and deliberately misleading in my belief […]
Political Devastation and Totalitarianism
The economic problem is going to be compounded by the political fight.
I don’t think the king-makers of the Deepest State really wanted to overthrow Trump just yet. He’s serving their interests.
The civil unrest Armstrong’s computer is predicting for June/July is likely a setup to blame Trump for reopening the economy too soon. Read my lengthy comment.
In short, I think we have a short-term bounce coming after Easter when Trump reopens in the U.S. economy and lifts the community lockdowns so most people can return to work. But I think this semi-respite will be short-lived on the political front for only perhaps 3 months. And on the virus and totalitarianism front I think we’ll get at most 6 - 8 months of respite (possibly much less) before we’re dive bombing back into the shit storm we’ve been in for the past weeks but getting progressively more onerous. If you want to prep any bugout plan or sell any major real estate or business assets (i.e. these are no longer investments), do it this summer without delay before these sort of assets become illiquid and no bid.
Is our our economy now dominoing into Minsky Moment collapse regardless of policy decisions? Will be especially so in the northerly States, highly urbanized zones or vocations which require close contact and/or frequent handling of objects others have touched or breathed on. Working and going out to eat or shopping with masks on, isn’t going to inspire the confidence to liberally spend and incur more debt. Frugal time preference will collapse the Western debt bubble. The insoluble problem is precisely the PUBLIC CONFIDENCE issue that Armstrong raises in support of re-opening the economy. Want to Save the Economy? Listen to Fauci, Not Trump. explains:
Economist Julia Coronado is exactly right: “If we go back to work and the disease continues to spread not only will people die and the 20% of our economy dedicated to health care be overwhelmed,
but people won't have the confidence to resume normal activity.”
Fear will paralyze the economy regardless of the policy decisions. The economic activity and spending of our nonaffected youth doesn’t comprise the majority of our economy. I cited that one-fourth of our adults under age 65 have multiple chronic illnesses which are comorbidities that increase the fatality rate for COVID-19.
As Coronado put it, people “…won't go on airplanes or travel or hold conferences or events because they won't be able to trust the public health response has been adequate to protect them."
[…]
A V-shaped recession envisions a sharp contraction followed by a sharp bounce-back.
That’s optimistic, but not inconceivable. It requires two things to occur. First, social distancing must work relatively quickly to contain the spread, which must be confirmed by far more testing. Second, fiscal measures, like the $2 trillion bill the Senate just passed, must do as much as we can to ensure households and businesses are intact on the other side of the crisis. There will be considerable pent-up demand when that occurs—I plan to go out every night once the coast is clear, more conferences will be rescheduled, vacations taken, etc. But we’ve got to have an economy capable of bouncing back. What’s now frozen must be able to thaw.
At least one prominent forecast team, that of Goldman-Sachs, has a V-shaped forecast, with GDP falling a sharp 15 percent annual rate in the first half of the year and rising about 7 percent in the second half.
I fear that’s optimistic, and that a U-shaped recession-recovery is more likely. The downturn is just as sharp as the V, but containment takes longer than in the V scenario, so the trough of the recession lasts longer. My guess, and I take this more from reading epidemiologists than economists, is we’ll be very lucky to see a GDP report without a negative handle by the fourth quarter, when the unemployment rate will be at least 10 percent.
But if we listen to Trump and punt on containment too soon, we’ll be looking at the dreaded L: a sharp downturn with a trough that keeps dragging on. Weeks with millions of layoffs will become the long-term norm. What’s more, while Congress can pass fiscal measures to at least partially offset at a V or U pattern, it’s much less likely fiscal policy can repeatedly ramp up to offset an L.
As I already explained, Congress just passed a stimulus that with economics that effectively forces businesses to send more workers to file unemployment claims.
The only possible way out of that catch-22 is an effective vaccine or COVID-19 treatment to restore public confidence.
Armstrong blogged Is This a Plot To Cover-up Collapse of Keynesian Economics?:
Worse still, the police “with the help of medical professionals” are now developing/testing an app that people are to download, which will track all movements of anyone who has or had the virus as well as anyone who came into any sort of contact with such a person. The app will then instantly alert all other users that such a person is in their vicinity (as well as the police, so that, I assume, they can come and grab this “criminal” and forcefully intern them somewhere). Btw, the comments in the major Slovak newspaper where I read this news were 100% supportive (and even enthusiastic) or such an app.
So much for that B.S. about people who have lived in communist/totalitarian regimes being wary of any police state measures. Not true… people are the same indoctrinated idiots everywhere.
[…]
There is clearly some agenda, but it has originated in Europe from what I have been able to track. It is perhaps a convenient event to cover-up the collapse of Keynesianism for there is absolutely NOTHING the ECB can do. As I laid out in Manipulating the World Economy, this was going to take a political solution. The real issue here is perhaps this has been whipped up into a panic in order to bring in that political change and to push Europe into the federalized state. It just begins to smell like a very convenient outcome.
Armstrong blogged Why Confiscate Gold if it is Such a Small Part of the Financial System?:
They are seeking to eliminate ANY means of circumventing their negative interest rate policy.
[…]
It is solely intended to force everyone into government digital currencies. Then they can just tax whatever they desire.
The excuse for this quarantine is that there will not be enough hospital beds for everyone. The answer is what the Chinese did, constructed emergency hospitals in days. You dod NOT shut down the entire economy like this. People are losing jobs and small businesses will close forever. The damage is far greater than what they pretend to be preventing. Either they are sublimely STUPID, or there is another agenda here.
Europe was on the edge of collapse. They have has negative interest rates since 2014. The central bank could do NOTHING. I explained that there had to be political reform. They are actually doing what I said would have to happen, but sheer force. Europe is losing its freedoms and they will NEVER return.
Armstrong blogged TAX CRS Reporting & Why The European Flight to the Dollar:
The Common Reporting Standard (CRS) is an information standard for the automatic exchange of tax and financial information on a global level. It was put together by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) back in 2014. Its purpose was to hunt down tax evasion primarily for the European Union.
[…]
The legal basis of the CRS is the [signatories of the] Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters.
Note the U.S.A. and the Philippines are the only remaining major countries in the world not participating in that totalitarian tax hunt, because they haven’t codified it in their national laws yet.
Investments
Another facet that is going to piss off the political majority is watching investments continue to rise for the wealthy whilst their economic and financial life is deteriorating.
On the economic front I think there will won’t be another shock to the downside after the April bottom but rather a slide into stagflation combined with totalitarianism. The DJIA will recover to new ATHs because (international) capital will have no other place to go. Bitcoin, gold and possibly also silver will also be attaining new ATHs in this period until 2022/23ish. Don’t forget the potential SegWit attack on Bitcoin which I’m now thinking might occur within a few months after the May 14 halving event. See the Bitcoin section below which posits a June or October 2020 timing for the posited SegWit attack.
Silver
Armstrong wrote:
We are witnessing the collapse of democracy and the rise of authoritarian governments. They realize that they were on the edge of collapse. The socialist agenda was collapsing along with pensions. Their only solution was to create a pretend pandemic and use that to seize control of everything.
There are those who still think cryptocurrencies will be the alternative to fiat money. I strongly urge that you get a new pair of glasses. They will NOT ALLOW any competition. This is about seizing full control. They will not allow any alternative form of cash and that includes gold.
This may be the time people begin to switch to silver soon.
Armstrong also wrote elsewhere that the all time high (and breaking above 100) in the gold/silver ratio was necessary before gold could head for new ATHs. Since that has been achieved, silver may be about to start catching up to gold as gold rises also.
Gold to Silver Ratio - 100 Year Historical Chart
Wait at least for silver to decline below $13 again:
SILVER short trade idea
Looks like the ratio will drop to at least just below 50:
A Return to the Average Gold to Silver Ratio! - BUY SILVER
Possibly below 30:
Silver in a Coma, Gold holding Steady
Before you get too excited about the two charts below, realize they look a lot more mundane with the ‘log’ scaling on.
Silver looks likes it wants to retake $20 – $25 as gold assaults a new ATH above $1800 probably within 2020.
SILVER / U.S. DOLLAR
GOLD SPOT / U.S. DOLLAR
Longer-term silver wants to at least double-top or make a new ATH above $50 with gold climbing into the $2000 – $2500 range plausibly by sometime between 2021 and 2024. I’m not ruling out $200 and $5000 at the ultimate tops. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to buy some physical silver and gold to hedge against an unknown timing for the SegWit attack on Bitcoin even though Legacy Bitcoin to radically outperform gold.
Note capital gains tax for precious metals is higher (28%) in the U.S.A.. Yet there’s a Charitable Remainder Trust to reduce and defer taxes.
Some relevant tweets:
Generational bottom in Silver? Bullish H&S pattern
Generational bottom in Silver? Im long.
I ignore the following for the analogous reason that I ignore those who think Bitcoin needs multiple years from now to rise above $100+k. See on the chart below that peak, short-dip, then reacceleration in the late 1970s. I posit the peak in 2011 (which I publicly predicted 7 months before it occurred) corresponds to the peak in 1974 and so the analogous subsequent peak in 1980 should be coming soon for silver:
10 $ to 30 $ then bottom?
It doesn’t make sense for silver to go lower while the totalitarianism and failure of governments is increasing during this current decade underway. Silver was correcting from the $50 nosebleed high in 2011, just as it did after the moonshot to a high in 1974. That acceleration out of the 2008/9 subprime-driven, market crash to the 2011 high was silver’s first move due to these series of crises befalling our over-indebted and politically-clusterfucked Western civilization. Actually the first move was at the turn of the 21st century with the LTCM crisis and Dot.com bubble. Silver being a very small market, moves to extremes and has to exhale and recompress before continuing its trend. Silver has been in an overall, secular bullish trend since the turn of the 21st century. So now that silver has corrected to its historic extremes on the gold/silver ratio, it’s reloaded and ready to rumble higher again.
Bitcoin
Is the other shoe about to drop?
Armstrong is privately predicting a possible drop of the DJIA to 15,000. In that case, Bitcoin likely has another leg down after the bounce and perhaps to a lower low for the final bottom. Probably will coincide with or before in anticipation of the horrible jobs report coming April 3 before the enacted stimulus can take hold. Also the markets may fret if Trump has not yet unequivocally decided to reopen the economy on Easter. Generally markets which drop so precipitously have a bull trap deadcat bounce before settling on a bottom which is not necessarily a lower low.
After Dow’s best day since 1933, $15 billion fund manager urges caution
Numerous health policy “experts” have come stating that the Easter timeframe is unrealistic and that for example New York cases will not peak until at least a week or two after Easter. What they’re not factoring in to their bearish public statements is that Trump mentioned that he wanted to ease restrictions is some jurisdictions sooner than others. For example, we have very few cases in S. Texas. So the market may have another panic moment due to waning europhia about the stimulus and acid-ingestion as the reality of the dire impacts of this severe economic shock weigh in.
President Trump Urges Governors To Rank Counties By Virus Risk In Bid To Re-Open America's Economy
Bitcoin’s 50 DMA is bearish crossing under the 200 DMA and then the 100 DMA at the ~$8.2k price level, which has also provided resistance for the somewhat counter trend WalMart:
Walmart (WMT), however, fell nearly 5% as it hits
resistance at its converging 50 day- and 200-day moving averages. The discount retail giant, 14% off its high, has held up better than most other stocks as consumers rush to stockpile toilet paper, cleaning supplies and food.
The overhead resistance for the top of the channel since the decline from the July 2019 13.9k peak is also ~$8k:
Bitcoin 1D, Kraken (click to embiggen)
And the bullish wedge is projecting to between ~$8.1k up to $10.1k:
Bitcoin 1D, Kraken (click to embiggen)
I read some stock gurus think the SPX should hit 2700 on this bounce but it closed prior session 2475. So perhaps both SPX and BTC have another move higher before retest lows. Given a +9% increase in the SPX, a +15% move for Bitcoin to $8.1k is proportionality equivalent based on their relative percentage declines since the start of the crash in earnest in February.
It’s also possible for Bitcoin to be repelled by overhead resistance at the 100 WMA ~$7.2k:
Bitcoin 3D, Kraken (click to embiggen)
Maximum upside is ~$10.5k but I expect a decline to test the bottom before assaulting that level. And I don’t anticipate Bitcoin swinging to lower low below the 200 WMA ~$5.5k or the bottom of aforementioned ~$4.6k – $5k although a drop to ~$3.1 or $2.4k isn’t implausible:
Bitcoin 1W, Kraken (click to embiggen)
After writing the above I noted that @FilbFilb has a similar outlook if I may quote a snippet from his recent free newsletter as follows:
- 200 day moving average at $8789
- The point of control of the whole move at $8600
- The 50% Fibonacci retracement level
- The 20 and 50 week moving average at c.$8500
- The CME gap.
Price was still north of $9k at the time and we stated that the retest of the 200 Day and 20 Week moving averages were the line in the sand in terms of remaining bullish.
[…]
Bitcoin has managed to bounce around 70% from its lows and we now find ourselves at round $7k at the time of writing […] Should this be broken, Bitcoin will find itself with a potential run up to around $8k where there is a formidable level of resistance:
- Yearly pivot point
- 61.8% retracement of 2020 lows-Highs
- 200, 50 , 100 Day moving average
- 50/200 Daily pending death cross
- 20 Week Moving Average
- High Volume Node
[…]
the good news is that the 200 week moving average, despite being lost briefly, was reclaimed and there was significant buying support, which is clearly visible in the volume and the OBV indicator below.
[…]
One of my favourite charts is the Money supply adjusted S&P500 chart; this has never been more relevant. The chart shows that in real terms we are about half of the way through a real SPX loss like 2008 in real terms. I can remember working in 2008 and there was no big world wide shut down and as far as we know the financial system is not in much better shape to simply absorb a situation like this.
[…]
Things are going to get very real in the states in the next few weeks as the parabolic impact of the COVID-19 virus takes over.
These are the very reasons Bitcoin was created. We know that Bitcoin is hard capped and that flight to safety assets will be the main benefactor in this situation;- eventually. There was a major decoupling in 2008 after a 50% draw down in real terms off the top of the S&P500 before gold decoupled and started moving higher while the S&P fell another 10% off the top. In equivocal terms, we are about 35% off the top in real terms, so it appears there is a real risk of further downside and if history is anything to go off, we may see additional impact on Gold and possibly Bitcoin as the reality of the situation occurs.
Indeed Bitcoin has been more bullish (or just more volatile?! 😲 😧 😱) off the bottom than the DJIA.
Review the section Rebuking Regurgitated Doomsday F.U.D. in my prior blog Bitcoin’s Fractal Acceleration Entire History to keep in mind that this flash crash could go deeper, before the posited SLINGSHOT back up. We may be in the SLINGSHOT already but seems to me another move down makes the most sense.
My charts above seem to be saying that Bitcoin is likely to stay within that uber bullish wedge with only this spike down before a massive SLINGSHOT vertical acceleration upwards. Remember what I have been preaching in my recent blogs such as Whither Bitcoin in a Global Liquidity Contagion?:
[…] remember what I blogged in Bitcoin Death Spiral Underway — or Something Else?:
I’m expecting the superimposition of a tweening of a prior fractal similar visually to the following:
(click to embiggen)Note above the spike down from 2013 before the egregious SLINGSHOT vertical moonshot. Bitcoin has demonstrated that the more volatile/steep the decline then the more steep the ascent!
Do bear in mind though that if everyone is expecting Bitcoin to decline again, it may do the opposite and just continue grinding higher from here. I don’t advise being in an uber bearish stance placing great odds on a drop to ~$3.1 or $2.4k.
Let me summarize my thoughts before continuing in more detail below. All scenarios are possible, but I think after a bounce to $8k either Bitcoin retests above $4k else crashes to $2.6k because the middle scenario $3.2k doesn’t really match a capitulation vomit. I strongly lean to the former, because I think Trump will jawbone as necessary to prevent a slide in the DJIA below 15,000 and I think BTC already vomited its guts out. The disconcerting part is that BTC had been in a decline since July 2019, so let’s hope the vomit capitulation to $3.9k was the bottom and not an acceleration of gastric distress underway.
Revisiting what Armstrong wrote:
There are those who still think cryptocurrencies will be the alternative to fiat money. I strongly urge that you get a new pair of glasses. They will NOT ALLOW any competition. This is about seizing full control. They will not allow any alternative form of cash and that includes gold.
And also noting he has pages 111 and 112 entitled “Bitcoin & the Fantasy of a Digital [cryptocurrency] Alternative to Fiat” in the TOC of his Monetary Crisis Cycle Report.
Oh for sure the nations are preparing the FATF to even go after the Bitcoin mining farms to force capitulation to regulations. And there’s the posited SegWit attack planned by presumably the same powers-that-be (the creators of Bitcoin) behind the curtain who pulled off this manufactured pandemic scam.
But I still think Armstrong is missing the point of Bitcoin. Those PTB want it to be the new reserve currency asset to replace the U.S. dollar after they make a mess of the world’s current monetary system with this manufactured pandemic. They need an asset which all nations will agree is impartial. Only decentralized mining can provide that. Armstrong doesn’t believe that there are Illuminati who are pulling the strings of the Deep State from behind the curtain of the visible portion of the Deep State such as the Democrats and Climategate scammers. Remember it was for example the Rockefeller Foundation that was funding private 501(c) Foundations for feminism, Marxism indoctrination, etc..
But those PTB need to kick us minions off of Bitcoin before they raise the price to $1 million per coin.
Those of us who are awake separate from the hordes of sheepeople do need our own truly decentralized, anonymous cryptocurrency to turn to as we’re kicked off of Bitcoin because physical silver isn’t going suffice. Silver is heavy and it and gold will be confiscated when we travel. There’s going to be “show me your papers” checkpoints along all road networks in the world to check for an individual’s ID2020 status w.r.t. to the corona virus. Also we can’t develop our online commerce systems to take physical silver payments.
Nobody has yet designed a truly decentralized cryptocurrency. Proof-of-stake and all its non-proof-of-work offshoots differing only in name not in principle will never be decentralized and resilient. Even Bitcoin’s proof-of-work may succumb to FATF which can in theory exert control over these large, stationary mining farms (unless in the implausible outcome that some rogue nations refuse and can still remain connected to the global Internet and possess the most mining hashrate and electricity).
I may finally work on solving this problem. It’s all dependent on my health, which I will blog about soon in a follow-up in conjunction with discussing medications for the corona virus.
Armstrong’s Monthly Bitcoin Forecast Array
Yet we must keep in mind that a SegWit attack at this juncture would absolutely decimate the cryptocosm.
Armstrong is warning about his monthly Bitcoin Forecast Array that April has a key turning point and rising volatility. He mentions paying attention to bearish reversals in his Reversals system. So the question is will April be a bearish or bullish turning point for Bitcoin? Readers should subscribe to Armstrong’s Socrates Global Market Watch to obtain full access to this information.
I believe Armstrong may be overemphasizing a bearish interpretation of the meaning of the heightened bars for April.
There was a Directional Change in March which is of course this flash crash underway but remember in 2013 there was a flash crash right before vertical rocket shot to the November 2013 ATH. The start of the flash crash can be the pulling of the SLINGSHOT and thus actually a bullish move! Socrates’ Forecast Array for April has increasing intraday and day-to-day volatility which should be the choppiness of establishing the bottom with wilder swings between finding the low and potentially bounces ranging back up to the $9k to $10k level.
Then day-to-day volatility increases into May which I think could be the bullish acceleration upwards, although it could also be the bearish acceleration downwards of a SegWit attack! Yikes. But I don’t think this already-in-doomsday-SegWit-attack interpretation is likely as I will argue below but also let’s not forget what I had inserted in the top of my prior blog Whither Bitcoin in a Global Liquidity Contagion?:
Did BTC Miners Crash Bitcoin Price With 51 Days Before the Halving?
Would the miners crash the Bitcoin price to gain market share before and during the May 14 halving event so they can pump the price in June after bankrupting their competition? Or are they crashing the price because the SegWit death spiral is underway now?
The Forecast Array has extreme values in the Longitudinal Wave row for the April and July 2020 columns. Perhaps this could be explained by the opening of the fractal to the larger fractal which is this huge bullish move to the analogous November 2013 ATH as I explained in my prior blog Bitcoin Death Spiral Underway — or Something Else?:
Can Only Be Bullish — Signifies Opening of a Massive Bullish Fractal
It reflects transitioning from a smaller fractal to a large one, due to wave interference from the large fractal. This means the next bullish move is going to be much greater than the one to
$13.5k.This is playing out as my model had predicted.
The July 2020 case could be the forking of the fractal pattern also between the uber bullish legacy Bitcoin and terminally ill Bitcoin Core. A plausible explanation for why there’s no significant bullish nor bearish Trading Cycle extreme value for the entire year until November 2020 when it spikes very bullish, could be that there’s a mixed signal of bullish for legacy Bitcoin and bearish for Bitcoin Core until the market has settled by November at them being separate forks with separate trajectories.
Then there’s rising intraday volatility in June 2020 along with a Directional Change, which could be indecision around the ~$20k ATH, the July 2019 $13.9k peak or the currently ~$10.5k long-term downtrend overhead resistance line that runs from the 2017 ATH through the June 2019 peak $13.9k. That June 2020 Directional Change doesn’t fit a SegWit collapse to near ~$0 scenario, if the March and June Directional Changes are bearish and bullish respectively. The only way the June Direction Change can be bearish (and thus possibly the start of the SegWit attack) is if the March Directional Change is bullish. Thus May/June seems to be breaking through the $13.9k and $20k levels making new ATHs everyday in June until the Bearish Reversal and Directional Change is reached. However if the March Directional Change is bearish but not a SegWit collapse level of bearish, then the June Directional Change would be bullish so the rise in the Bitcoin price could continue after June, although this would conflict with Armstrong’s expectation of cryptocurrencies being destroyed (if he expects that near-term) yet the bearish reversals with a bottoming May would be consistent with his stated expectation. And in that scenario (i.e. no SegWit attack before ~October 2020) the high volatility in May could be the final bottoming process of this current correction. So I’m claiming we can likely determine if a SegWit attack is likely in June by observing whether there’s a new ATH in June. The next opportunity for the posited SegWit attack would be Sept/October 2020 with the rising volatility forecast.
The Long-Term shift in August with a bullish Trading Cycle in November and then very high intraday volatility in December could be a rise heading towards ~$40k – $100+k and beyond.
So I can only arrive at bullish outcomes for Bitcoin, including the possibility of a SegWit attack in June or October 2020 which would make Armstrong think Bitcoin had been destroyed to fulfill his predictions and expectations. The Directional Change in March with the SLINGSHOT bottom could be the start of the very bullish phase (to finally break through the aforementioned three overhead resistance levels) which then peaks in June with a Directional Change towards bearish. That June Directional Change could be the peak and start of the SegWit attack.
A June SegWit attack would also correspond with inciting civil unrest in June/July that Armstrong’s computer predicts. The millennials have been big into cryptocurrency as USAFtards and other Ycombinator-esque retarded stuff such as ERC-20 utility tokens, c.f. Let's have fun with Paul Graham.
Let’s remember that even Armstrong was caught off-guard by this manufactured virus crisis. He was not expecting the extreme manipulations although he was expecting a correction from the January 18 ECM date until a March 23 low. So he would also not be expecting a SegWit attack although his bearishness would again be congruent with unexpected manipulations. The very high volatility in June could be the new ATH above $20k peak followed by a crash and then the August Long-term shift with legacy Bitcoin turning bullish by November and the Bitcoin Core cratering into the abyss.
An April crash for Bitcoin on the into the abyss and end of cryptocurrencies would be inconsistent with what we expect for gold. It would mean that cryptocurrency had been identified as a failure to be a hard asset at a critical juncture. Instead I believe the powers-that-be would want to sucker all the greater fools into chasing Bitcoin up to some new ATH with FOMO “Bitcoin is a savoir hard asset in these times of great crisis” and then totally fuck them all because they hodl in non-legacy address even though they were warned many times not to do so. IOW, Bitcoin must not fail to be a hard asset. Instead the users must fail to believe in immutable, hard assets and instead chase egalitarian unicorn fantasy “we can scale Bitcoin for all of us because we have good intentions.”
Satan is ethical. Abstractly the analogous situation is happening with the nCov-19 trojan horse in that the people have been handed a rope long enough to hang themselves and they enthusiastically embraced the necessary hysteria about surety and guaranteed safety thus ignoring the basic tenets of liberty as expressed in for example Biblical 1 Samuel 8, Proverbs and Benjamin Franklin’s famous quip:
Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.
Armstrong could be fooled because he firmly believes nation-states can prevent everyone from using Bitcoin. That’s because he still hasn’t realized that legacy Bitcoin (with immutable 1 MiB size blocks) is not designed for the masses to use as a cryptocurrency. It’s designed only for the $billionaires to use as an international clearing currency and stable global unit-of-account fulcrum in a two-tiered currency system (in the coming monetary reset) from which to enforce discipline on the nation-states. This is Nash’s Ideal Money concept which is also similar to FOFOA’s Free Gold concept but without the weaknesses of gold. The powers-that-be took John Nash’s Ideal Money concept and implemented it with proof-of-work.
So Armstrong thinks Bitcoin will fail. No! The FATF is ultimately controlled behind the curtain by the powers-that-be who created Bitcoin. They will use their control over the Deep State and the FATF to kick off all the minions from Bitcoin as they raise the price to $1 million per coin.
So Armstrong is correct that (virtually) all the cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin Core will die a fiery death due to lack of use-case and intense regulations on users, but he doesn’t understand that legacy Bitcoin is the 1988 Economist Magazine’s Phoenix rising from the ashes of the destroyed global monetary system.
As I’ve been noticing for at least nearly two years that the linear-scaled chart of Bitcoin paints a dismal, bearish picture of no viable use-case adoption and only short-term-focused, get-rich-quick, fantasy-stricken, greater fools slaughter in a Tulip Bubble FOMO failure:
BTC/USD, 1W, Bitstamp linear-scaled (click to embiggen)
Whereas, the log-scaled chart paints the uber, bullish picture of steady long-term hodler adoption as a “going for the gold” monetary valuation:
BTC/USD, 1W, Bitstamp log-scaled (click to embiggen)
Bearish Bitcoin Perspective
Then I look at the log-scaled chart from another perspective and I become frightened by the possibility that we’re in the SegWit attack and crash now:
BTC/USD, 1W, Bitstamp log-scaled (click to embiggen)
Maybe it’s time to stop the FOMO denial and say oh the fuck Bitcoin Core is headed down to at least $2k before bouncing! And legacy Bitcoin which may rise along with gold, doesn’t have a quoted price that we’re aware of yet or maybe the two haven’t forked off from each other yet (or not at least known to the community and exchanges yet).
Scarier is that if ~$2k and $3.1k are penetrated to the downside, Bitcoin Core has no price support above $0 on the linear-scaled chart except for maybe very long-term support between a few dollars and up to ~$500:
BTC/USD, 1W, Bitstamp linear-scaled (click to embiggen)
That egregious failure in March is a bad omen. That’s not on the gold chart!
Novogratz Is Buying Bitcoin Again, Despite A More Than 20% Plunge In March)
“If there was ever a time -- debasement of fiat currencies, monetization of trillions of dollars of debt, this is the time for Bitcoin.”
I conceptually agree with Novogratz and Bitcoin appears to be reloading lower to compress the spring to rocket up. But I think perhaps the Bitcoin Core UASFtards and big blocks-tards may have to be cast off first before legacy Bitcoin can “go for the gold” as a truly hard monetary asset. These tards don’t hodl. They get scared and sell. They don’t put up the long-term capital to expand mining. This is another reason the SegWit attack is necessary in order to take BTC from tards and put it in the strong hands of miners who will invest in increasing the mining security and thus stock-to-flows and cost-of-production (COP) valuation of Bitcoin.
However in defense of Novogratz I will note on chart above that Bitcoin bottomed before the DJIA did and as the DJIA declined further to its low, Bitcoin only dropped to its bullish uptrend line. So although a decline to 15,000 for the DJIA would call for a proportionality decline to $2600 for Bitcoin if counting declines from bottoms, instead Bitcoin may only make a higher low because it will be decline from a higher percentage bounce. Roughly that computes to a retest for Bitcoin ~$4.7k.
And that “bad omen” can be obviated significantly by drawing the overhead resistance downtrend line more conservatively:
BTC/USD, 1W, Bitstamp log-scaled (click to embiggen)
The last chance for remaining in a near-term bullish triangle wedge for Bitcoin Core on the linear-scaled chart would be $3.1k then $2k.
Analyzing the Forecast Array from this dismal perspective, March could have initiated a bearish Direction Change. Extreme May/June volatility could be the death spiral of Bitcoin Core. The bullish Direction Change in June could be legacy Bitcoin arising from the ashes. By August a clear Long-term renewal. Then creeping bullish September and October with a rocket liftoff to the bullish Trading Cycle by November as the community finally recognizes what has transpired and anoints legacy Bitcoin as the future digital gold.
Legacy Bitcoin would bottom $2k but this would likely only be quoted on OTC exchanges if any. It’s more of just a virtual valuation. Bitcoin Core would collapse into the abyss.
Bitcoin Strategy
Here is the way I suggest playing it. Take losses at $7.2k or $8k so no taxes due (might bounce to $8+k but I’m feeling nervous and anxious). Anything purchased lower than that price consider hodling that in legacy addresses through any SegWit attack. Or as much legacy hodlings as you want for your risk tolerance based on the potential of being blocked from cashing them out later.
Plan to repurchase if the price finds solid support above $3.1k especially support above $4.5k. Otherwise it’s a rout so cash out and purchase silver, gold and/or stocks at their coming April lows. If ever it bottoms ~$2k, then can consider selling those other assets and repurchasing.
Maybe diversifying some into Ethereum. Ethereum might be a suitable hedge but it’s not certain. See charts below.
Get everything off the exchanges by April. The exchanges will fail if the price gets too low and the non-malevolent miners lose 51% control of the Core blockchain, because the posited SegWit attackers would block withdrawals of Bitcoin from the exchanges.
ETH/BTC appears poised for an imminent breakout to the upside with a target of up to 0.16 although it could still break down to 0.07 first:
ETH/BTC, 1W, Kraken linear-scaled (click to embiggen)
That might or might not preserve or increase fiat value if Bitcoin’s price remains above $1k.
On the log-scaled chart the projection is up to 0.30 but breakout to the upside is not necessarily imminent:
ETH/BTC, 1W, Kraken log-scaled (click to embiggen)
ETH/USD might not have the death spiral possibility that BTC/USD has because the price already escaped from the downward channel spiral or bullish descending wedge and appears to be basing on the long-term support for a possible blip or extended move higher:
ETH/USD, 1W, Kraken linear-scaled (click to embiggen)
However, it could still drop to ~$29 or lower.
LTC/BTC is more telling. It’s sitting on critical support. If it falls through, then there’s no support above 0:
LTC/BTC, 1W, Poloniex linear-scaled (click to embiggen)
The log-scaled chart “at least” has some support about an order-of-magnitude lower:
LTC/BTC, 1W, Poloniex log-scaled (click to embiggen)
The hopium balloons are nearly deflated. Look out below.
Simon Chandler blogged in July Crypto Bubbles: Why Traders Believe Altcoins Are Overpriced:
[…] However, while certain mainstream observers simply regard the entire cryptocurrency market as one giant balloon, other individuals have been offering more nuanced claims recently, assertions that revolve around a distinction between Bitcoin and the vast majority of altcoins.