Are we ready to consider Herd Immunity?

China has done a fabulous job in controlling the virus in only a few months with massive testing, tracking down contacts and quarantining them. Unfortunately the US has completely flubbed the opportunity to cut the virus off quickly - and with our random, patchwork and unaffordable healthcare system we are apparently incapable or unwilling to take China's hyper-focused (and admittedly heavy handed) approach.

Instead we need to take a braver approach - namely to develop herd immunity to the virus - in a controlled manner - long before a vaccine is available. I have already argued that some places like NYC are already mostly herd immune, but it wasn't achieved in a controllable fashion and thus resulted in egregious and unnecessary loss of life. Here's how we can do it a better way:

1. The learning and hunker-down phase - we have to allow the cases and deaths to peak, trough and repeat. This is the phase we are in now - although it may get stricter. During this period we need to be testing many different treatments to see which are the most effective. We must wait until we have fully equipped COVID-19 segregated hospitals which are at overcapacity because the number of new cases has peaked and is shrinking.

2. We need ubiquitous testing of the population with rapid antibody tests that are inexpensive and do not require a lab. This will establish that there is a population of people who have ALREADY fought off the illness and are now IMMUNE. These people would receive a certification to prove they are immune and now can form the beginning of a new workforce that will neither spread nor contract the virus. They can immediately travel freely and work.

3. We need then to have volunteers to deliberately be exposed to the disease - ie. have COVID-19 parties. Similar to how moms have given chicken pox parties in the past. These would obviously be young healthy individuals who are given thorough physicals and have their VO2 max tested to make sure their lungs are in great condition. They would take lots of zinc, vitamin C, D, A, glutathione, melatonin and other supplements to make sure that their symptoms stayed mild. We send our young off to war - this would be certainly less risky than that.

4. These people would then be monitored - isolated in summer camps and 2-8 days after all symptoms went away could be tested to validate that they have IgG antibody immunity and are negative for the virus. With that certification they can then join the people who are already immune.

5. We gradually bring in more waves of people as we hopefully learn even better methods of treatment.

6. We reopen schools allowing kids to gain immunity too, keeping home those with conditions that would make them vulnerable to the disease who would still school remotely.

7. If we can get to 60% of the population who are immune then the virus will peter out quickly. Perhaps this will be the case with even a lower percentage since everyone else is practising social distancing.

A program like this will give workers who are desperate to get back to work the opportunity to take a little risk to become immune so they could start right away. This will hopefully avert the massive social and financial breakdown that may otherwise be significant in the longer run.

It's simply not practical to have everyone stay at home indefinitely waiting 18 months for a vaccine. And it's doubtful that law and order or the financial system could survive such a prolonged downtime.

We had months of lockdown, and on-balance, people are starting to see that it might not have been worth it. I know the idea of herd immunity sounds terrifying, but at this point, it's actually worth some serious consideration.