Fears that #reopeningschool will cause more young people to become infected with the new coronavirus are grounded on an unexplained hunch that those out of school will be doing something safer than those in school. The theory is that idle young people, with no school to attend, won't hang out at shopping malls or parties or even visit friends at their homes.
Such assumptions about schools being more risky than hanging out are compounded by the common fallacy of equating more testing with more infections.
As it happens, I know something about that. That is because the only two people I know who have tested positive happen to be closely related.
Before starting their first year at a college and prep school, my nephews were required to be tested for COVID-19. Much to everyone's surprise, they both tested positive. Those positive tests were then added to the routine count of "confirmed cases" in their own state, even though their schools are in two different states.
A recent AP story tried to blame a late-August surge in "cases" (positive tests) in South Dakota as being partly due to schools and colleges reopening. But South Dakota doesn't have many more students than other states. And young people testing positive may well have been required to be tested before going to schools outside the state (as my nephew's were).
Without the testing requirement my nephews would never have suspected they had been infected because they had no symptoms and no fever. Within 10-14 days, both tested negative and prepared to leave for school. Neither parent was infected, as is the norm for asymptomatic cases with even minimal precautions.
Confused journalists at the AP, Washington Post and other tabloids are churning out sensational stories about how school re-openings are causing more infections. But the "facts" they cite can't distinguish from more infections than would otherwise occur anyway and more positive tests that were detected thanks to school testing requirements.
What school re-openings are causing is much more testing of young people. When many thousands more students are tested it should be no surprise that a few dozen will turn up positive here and there. This almost never means they will become seriously ill. It just means were testing a lot of people who don't really need to be tested, except perhaps to reassure others.
Looking for and finding a few positive cases among school entrants (preferably before they arrive) does not suggest young people are in a bit more danger at school than they were or would be out of school. After all, they wouldn't exactly be under house arrest if they didn't go to school. They'd just be learning a lot less.
Covid-19 has done a lot of damage to the students' studies.
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