Careful with infographics - Take this one of Child Mortality as an example.

in covid •  3 years ago 

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If you shared this David Leonhardt New York Times graphic please stop, you're just embarrassing yourself. It is not only way outdated on COVID deaths in kids after the rise of Delta, it is really bad logic for a host of reasons.

The main issue is it is not using infection fatality rates for the two infectious diseases on this list. It might as well be showing how well pandemic mitigation controls respiratory viruses. In the same period used for coronavirus deaths in this chart we had 1 pediatric Flu death.

This makes it especially nonsensical when comparing to things that are not infectious diseases. We've managed to control the spread of the coronavirus in these age groups. For the period in the chart the coronavirus attack rates for these two age groups have been ~25%. For a virus capable of an unmitigated attack rate of 90+%, you understate its mortality risk by using its mitigated death rate.

The available research suggests that for 5-14 year olds the coronavirus has a similar infection fatality rate as influenza. For 1-4 year olds, coronavirus appears to be deadlier than seasonal Flu. But the seasonal Flu attack rate is only ~10-20%. So for both age groups, the coronavirus is capable of significantly more deaths than the Flu.

The death counts aren't apples to apples comparisons either. The coronavirus deaths data is using a lagging data source. This isn't an issue for the 2018 data obviously. Furthermore, there's a detection issue across these counts. This would normally be an issue with Flu, but Flu has been combined with pneumonia, which blunts the impact. Coronavirus deaths however are an undercount due to lack of testing and death certification issues.

And of course death is not the only thing we care about with a virus. We care about illness and hospitalizations, long-term morbidity, and community transmission. For these age groups the illness severity and hospitalization risk are higher than seasonal Flu. They are more likely to be put in the ICU and on mechanical ventilation than the Flu. In rare cases kids have had MIS-C. Children have also had Long COVID after an infection, though at lower rates than adults.

There's no need to minimize the risk of the coronavirus in kids. We shouldn't panic about it, but it is something to take seriously. Kids should get the coronavirus vaccine not only to protect others, but for their own protection. For all eligible age groups the individual risk of the virus is larger than the risk of the vaccine.

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