I'm not sure how, but the CDC blew it when they reported under 3% Omicron for the week ending 12/11...it was actually nearly 13%. In the week ending 12/18, it was 73% of new cases. ONE WEEK.
And that was the average over the whole week. It's a safe bet that by Saturday, 90% or so of the new cases were Omicron. The absolute number of cases isn't terribly high in most places, but that will change very, very quickly.
Cases are going to skyrocket like nothing we've seen before. Likely 4x higher in the next week, on top of an already deadly Delta surge. (It won't replace Delta any time soon, think of it as two epidemics.) NY, Hawaii, NJ, DC, Ohio all showing it already, the rest will follow very quickly.
WE DON'T KNOW HOW DEADLY IT IS. South Africa's data says it's much milder. UK and Denmark say it looks the same as Delta. SA has low vax rates, extremely high previous infection rates, previous infections with a different strain (Beta), and it's summer...so many reasons why results may be different in the US and Europe. We just don't know. Hopefully UK data will fill in this week with a more conclusive answer.
Hospitals will be in crisis if Omicron is much milder. (1/4 the hospitalizations on 10x the cases is still a huge increase.) If Omicron is similar, I don't know what to expect...maybe similar to NYC in the first wave, but across most of the country at the same time? January will be a very bad time to need medical services for anything.
Case reports will be limited by our testing capacity. Expect quick tests to be out of stock and long delays. Watch the % positive numbers to get a feel for whether testing is keeping up or badly under-reporting.
Even when we know the UK severity numbers, the US experience will be different. Lower vax rates, lower boost rates, higher rates of unvaxxed people with no previous infection.
I really, really hope the South Africa experience is the one we get. If not, I can't imagine what US hospitals will be like.
