The disjointed state of the pandemic in the US and why Texas easing is a mistake.

in covid •  4 years ago 

https://sph.uth.edu/dept/bads/covid19-dashboard

I don't really like using national level data for this pandemic. What truly matters are local virus conditions and resource pressure. Aggregating ends up obscuring a lot. The pandemic has had disjointed timing and severity of waves regionally in the US.

It is no different as we exit this pandemic. The national trendlines are quite promising, but local conditions vary a lot in this respect.

Texas is a perfect example of this and why I don't join with others in minimizing the risk of Abbott's recent order to remove mitigation measures. It is about the last state that should be declaring a return to normal prematurely.

The state average ICU capacity utilization is 87%. The national ICU capacity average is conversely 73%. Anything above 85% ICU capacity is essentially a state of adverse at-capacity strain that can cause suboptimal care and increased mortality and morbidity.

  • Houston Methodist Hospital is at 97% ICU utilization.

  • Baylor University Medical Center is at 100%.

  • Methodist Hospital in San Antonio is at 97%.

  • Baptist Medical in San Antonio is at 92%.

  • University Medical Center of El Paso is at 97%.

  • JPS Health Network of Fort Worth is at 100%.

These aren't small hospitals. These are the major hospital systems in their respective major cities. Baptist and Methodist Hospitals in San Antonio are in fact two of the ten largest hospital systems in the entire country.

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