What the Japanese want to tell you about the new coronavirus.

As a Japanese living in Japan, which has become a major infected country, there is something I would like to say to countries facing an infection crisis.

California coronavirus crisis as cruise ship held, funding deal struck
https://www.afp.com/en/news/3954/california-coronavirus-crisis-cruise-ship-held-funding-deal-struck-doc-1pm3d81

I was worried about reading this news.
It is a good decision that the Governor of California issued a state of emergency.

Quarantine policy are not 100% effective.
Because the virus is invisible, it may leak from somewhere.

Be aware that every country has multiple routes of transmission.
Certainly, the source is China, but it is NOT a “China-only route”.
It's just that "the first thing that happened to happen was China."

Reference URL
https://twitter.com/info_nbd/status/1230656946480373760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Thorough zoning is essential.
But that's just "minimal action", and most importantly, prevention of epidemics.

・ Disclose correct information.
・Give full effort to the inspection system.
・ Ensure adequate facilities such as isolated hospital rooms.
・ Secure protective clothing, goggles and masks.
・ Respect healthcare professionals.
・ Thorough hygiene management that can be done by individuals and make efforts to enhance immunity.
・ Virus never chooses race.
Discriminating only Asians does not reduce your risk of infection!

Please also refer to this article.

10 lessons from Asia on how to live with a coronavirus outbreak
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-05-20-intl-hnk/h_fc453605dd92ac6ca6a2aa846f9bba07

There are some predictions that Japan may be worse than Wuhan as a result of neglecting these prevention of epidemics.

A Japanese doctor tweet. ↓

SARS-CoV-2 has been widely and deeply rooted in Japan as expected. As is always the case with these new infections, they are initially highly lethal, but gradually converge, become less lethal, and eventually disappear.

The first three months are very difficult. People over the age of 60 die more than 10% when they are infected. If you are 50, you die 1-2%. If it is less than 50, it is 1-5 %, so it is not different from heavy flu. If you do not want to die, stop social activities, especially in February and March.(in Japan's case)

It is expected that the lethality of the virus will rapidly diminish thereafter. I think Japanese can withstand until the end of June, but foreigners may not. (Because there is no compensation for the life of foreigners)Olympic? I can't do it anymore. I think deprivation will take place within two months.

Later, a second epidemic may occur in winter. At this time it seems to be weak poisoning. The elderly and those with a history of illness need to be careful. Perhaps around 2022, the SARS-CoV-2 evil will converge. However, it is a common sense story so far. The probability of mutating to virulent with a mischief of probability is not zero.

Either way, Japan has failed completely on SARS-CoV-2 quarantine policy. In the future, it will be called a strong cold indigenous to Japan. Even if infected, 80% is mild so young people, less than 50 people do not need to panic. There is no cure, so if you are going to have pneumonia, you have to go to a hospital where you can inhale oxygen.

Older people over the age of 60, especially those over the age of 80, suffer with a high probability of dying and should not be transferred to these people who are not infected anyway. What is needed now is not quarantine policy, but control of infection and prevention of medical collapse. When medical treatment collapses, the tragedy will be 100 times the tragedy of Wuhan City. Many people die. Protect your healthcare.

If possible, minimize social activity for at least two weeks. People who have to work have no choice.China's success lies in the cessation of social activities and the cessation of work through income and living security. Japan cannot be as successful as China. There is a big pandemic first. But many do not die. Infection mortality rate 2%

In the future, the infection rate is estimated to be 70%. Since most infections cannot be detected, lethality should be evaluated at 0.2%. 80 million people will be infected and 160,000 die. I think this is most likely. Of course, if you evaluate it at 2%, there will be 1.6 million deaths, but I think it's unlikely.This is a matter of dark number.

Although optimism is out of the question, tragedy for individuals can be deterred if the number of deaths in a few months is around 200,000. Society does not collapse. Pay attention to hygiene and take measures against infectious diseases for individuals, and minimize social activities. I think that if I can endure it until the end of the consecutive holidays in May this can be managed. Let's not break the last fort, medical care.

https://twitter.com/BB45_Colorado/status/1230907153340174336?s=20

Learn from bad examples in Japan.
Please refer to Korean and Chinese prevention of epidemics.

We think it is time to exchange information and cooperate across races and countries.

Exclusion, discrimination, and strife do not produce anything.

If you want to protect your life, you need to work together to overcome this difficulty.