New: fivethirtyeightAll contenthive-129948krhive-196917zzanhive-183959hive-180932hive-185836hive-166405steemhive-150122hive-101145hive-144064uncommonlabhive-183397hive-184714hive-188619krsuccesshive-145157bitcoinlifehive-193637hive-180301hive-103599hive-193186motivationTrendingNewHotLikerspomeline (79)in fivethirtyeight • 3 months agoFiveThirtyEight's Senate forecast is now live.More bearish on Democrats than the other Senate models. The model expects Republicans to get ~51-52 seats with Montana flipping and possibly Ohio. Their model is quite bearish on Dan Osborn's…arbitration (78)in fivethirtyeight • 3 months agoFiveThirtyEight's House forecast is now live.Their initial forecast has it as a literal coin toss. Only 9 seats are rated as toss-ups. Only 27 seats are rated as leans or toss-ups. That is similar to other forecasts. So the House…zafrada (78)in polling • 3 months agoGood thread by G Elliott Morris explaining how FiveThirtyEight's polling averages work and the adjustments they make.This is why I mostly look at their polling averages and not RealClearPolitics or some other basic aggregator. As he notes their pollster ratings incorporate not only past performance, but…pomeline (79)in fivethirtyeight • 4 months agoFiveThirtyEight's initial Senate polling averages.Yes at least according to the polling, Cruz is in one of the tightest Senate races this cycle. Don't count out some of these races. We haven't had much high quality Senate polling this cycle, so I…pomeline (79)in fivethirtyeight • 4 months agoWisconsin is getting close to likely D territory in the FiveThirtyEight model.Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia are all at their highest win probabilities of the cycle. Arizona is nearly at its highest. Harris has a 35% chance of winning…zafrada (78)in national • 4 months agoFiveThirtyEight polling update.National: Harris up 2.7. Arizona: Trump up 0.8. Georgia: Trump up 0.6. Michigan: Harris up 1.8. Nevada: Harris up 0.1. North Carolina: Harris up 0.2. Pennsylvania: Harris up 0.7.…bumblecat (78)in fivethirtyeight • 5 months agoPolling update.FiveThirtyEight polling update. National: Harris up 3.4. Arizona: Harris up 0.1. Georgia: Harris up 0.4. Michigan: Harris up 3.0. Nevada: Harris up 1.2. North Carolina: Trump up 0.5.…leguna (78)in fivethirtyeight • 5 months agoFiveThirtyEight explaining their election forecast model changes.They simplified it so it is easier to understand. Instead of a full Bayesian model, they are running a polling forecast and a fundamentals forecast separately. And then averaging the two with…bumblecat (78)in cohn • 5 months agoI don't know what is going on with Nate Cohn.It isn't clear it is a different model. And FiveThirtyEight has explained a lot about the model, Nate just seems to refuse to listen to what they say. The FiveThirtyEight model is a multivariate…pomeline (79)in harris • 5 months agoFiveThirtyEight's election forecast is now back online with Harris in the race.They forecast she has a 58% chance of winning the election. FiveThirtyEight believes Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona are toss-ups. And believes Michigan, Wisconsin…pomeline (79)in rfk • 5 months agoFYI on the effect of RFK dropping out, here is what FiveThirtyEight's model says.Might matter in an election this close, but people probably are overstating it. The other third party candidates are more relevant to damaging Harris' chances. But they have ballot access issues…zafrada (78)in election • 5 months agoFiveThirtyEight polling update.National: Harris up 2.7. Arizona: Harris up 0.7. Georgia: Harris up 0.1. Michigan: Harris up 3.4. Nevada: Trump up 0.2. North Carolina: Trump up 0.8. Pennsylvania: Harris up 2.2.…zafrada (78)in politics • 5 months agoFiveThirtyEight polling update.Harris leading by 2.8% nationally. Harris leading by 0.3% in Arizona. Trump leading by 0.1% in Georgia. Harris leading by 3.4% in Michigan. Harris leading by 0.6% in Nevada. Harris leading…bumblecat (78)in election • 5 months agoCurrent polling map according to FiveThirtyEight.The wrinkle in this is that we wouldn't know who won for weeks due to ranked choice voting in Maine and Alaska. I should note all 7 battlegrounds are now competitive in the same polling, including…zafrada (78)in election • 7 months agoThe election is so close that there really ain't much difference here between the 538 forecast and this when it comes down to it.Nate Silver's 2024 presidential forecast is now out. His initial probability is Trump with a 65.7% chance to win. That's similar to the Economist's model. He's got Kennedy winning electoral votes…pomeline (79)in fivethirtyeight • 2 years agoThe meddling business.These are the FiveThirtyEight model forecasts for the six races that Democratic groups ran ads about the MAGA candidate in the primary. Gibbs is the only one with a real chance. Looks like the…camaroatc (30)in blog • 7 years agoSIGDIG- FiveThirtyEightDEC. 6, 2017 AT 8:14 AM Significant Digits For Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2017 By Walt Hickey Filed under Significant Digits You’re reading Significant Digits, a daily digest of the numbers…
