New: forecastAll contenthive-129948hive-196917krsteemzzanhive-183959hive-180932hive-166405uncommonlabhive-185836hive-183397hive-150122photographyhive-144064bitcoinhive-188619lifekrsuccesshive-101145hive-124908hive-103599hive-139150hive-106183hive-184714hive-150943TrendingNewHotLikersleguna (78)in election • 17 days agoHere are where the Senate and House forecasts stand.A lot more divergence in the models than the presidential race. Generally speaking Democrats are not favored to keep their Senate majority, but have a chance. And the House is roughly a toss-up…zafrada (78)in election • 18 days agoFinal election forecast check-in.The models have it as a pure toss-up. All 7 battleground states are well within striking distance for either candidate. It wouldn't be at all surprising if either candidate swept all 7.…zafrada (78)in us • 24 days agoGDPNow forecast.Final GDPNow nowcast estimates third quarter GDP will come in at a robust 3.3%. The actual release will be on the 30th. The final nowcast tends to be pretty accurate. GDP growth has been…arbitration (78)in election • 25 days agoClose but not hopeless.Yes, it somehow really is this close, despite the rally with the creepy "MASS DEPORTATION NOW" signs, the talk of being a dictator and using the military on "the enemy within", the looniness of the…pomeline (79)in fivethirtyeight • 28 days agoFiveThirtyEight's Senate forecast is now live.More bearish on Democrats than the other Senate models. The model expects Republicans to get ~51-52 seats with Montana flipping and possibly Ohio. Their model is quite bearish on Dan Osborn's…zafrada (78)in election • last monthLatest model probabilities from Split Ticket's forecasting.The Presidency and the House are basically pure toss-ups. As they note given race correlations, the winner of the presidency will likely also win the House. But whichever party wins the House will…zafrada (78)in election • last monthThe Economist's Senate forecast.A year ago if you told me the Senate majority was still in play I'd have been deeply skeptical. The 2024 Senate map couldn't have been worse, especially when Manchin said he was retiring. That…arbitration (78)in fivethirtyeight • last monthFiveThirtyEight's House forecast is now live.Their initial forecast has it as a literal coin toss. Only 9 seats are rated as toss-ups. Only 27 seats are rated as leans or toss-ups. That is similar to other forecasts. So the House…solarshutdown (62)in hurricane • last monthHurricane Milton Is The First Hurricane To Hit Tampa In 103 Years - X Flare Alert - Sun Diving CometLee County officials urge those in evacuation zones to leave by tonight Hurricane Milton remains Category 5 storm; models push slightly south Tampa Bay hasn’t been hit directly by a major…zafrada (78)in election • 2 months agoHere is an update on all the election forecasts.The Economist: Harris with a ~60% chance. FiveThirtyEight: Harris with a 58% chance. Nate Silver: Harris with a 58% chance. Decision Desk: Harris with a 56% chance. Split Ticket: Harris with…zafrada (78)in split • 2 months agoSplit Ticket's election forecast updates.Harris with 57% chance to win the presidency. Republicans with a 79% chance to take the Senate. And Democrats with a 61% chance to win the House. A normal polling error separates us from a Kamala…solarshutdown (62)in hurricane • 2 months agoHurricane Helene: Models show path toward Florida panhandle, state of emergency and evacuationsModels show path toward Florida panhandle, leading to state of emergency and evacuations HURRICANE HELENE Spaghetti Models Peak Storm Surge GFS Model Hurricane Helene Expected to Rapidly…pomeline (79)in split • 2 months agoThe folks at Split Ticket released their presidential forecast.Wonderful! Their initial forecast has Harris with a 62% chance of winning. They have Wisconsin and Michigan as slightly lean Democrat. And Florida and Texas as lean Republican. Their model…zafrada (78)in election • 3 months agoDont trust election models.This is a good piece. I think election models can be useful for trends and to add color to the uncertainty inherent to polling. And add more objectivity than pundits. But yeah the certainty some…pomeline (79)in politics • 3 months agoHere's Decision Desk's Senate forecast.Currently the model expects Republicans to win the Senate at 70% with 52 seats to 48 seats. The model forecasts a Senate tie at 15%. As for the House, the model expects Republicans to hold the…leguna (78)in fivethirtyeight • 3 months agoFiveThirtyEight explaining their election forecast model changes.They simplified it so it is easier to understand. Instead of a full Bayesian model, they are running a polling forecast and a fundamentals forecast separately. And then averaging the two with…zafrada (78)in election • 3 months agoDecisions desk forecast.Decision Desk has relaunched its election forecast now that Harris is the nominee. They forecast Harris with a 56% chance of winning the election. Here's the electoral map according to the…pomeline (79)in election • 3 months agoHere is Race to the White House's election forecast.They have Harris with a 55% chance of winning. They have Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina as toss-ups. They have Michigan as tilt Dem (~70% chance). They…pomeline (79)in harris • 3 months agoFiveThirtyEight's election forecast is now back online with Harris in the race.They forecast she has a 58% chance of winning the election. FiveThirtyEight believes Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona are toss-ups. And believes Michigan, Wisconsin…bumblecat (78)in nate • 4 months agoPolling favours Harris right now.Harris is now leading in Nate Silver's election forecast with a 50.5% chance to win the election fwiw. Harris has a 1.4% lead in the national popular vote. She leads by 0.5% in Pennsylvania which…
