New: nateAll contenthive-129948krhive-196917zzansteemhive-185836hive-183959hive-180932hive-166405hive-150122uncommonlabphotographyhive-188619hive-144064hive-101145hive-183397hive-145157bitcoinhive-193637hive-184714lifekrsuccesshive-181136hive-109690hive-113376TrendingNewHotLikersbumblecat (78)in nate • 2 months agoHere's what a uniform normal polling error would look like for either candidate according to Nate Silver's current polling averages.So yeah, we could very well see a 7 battleground state sweep by either candidate. Typically polling error is correlated, especially among similar states. So if polls miss in Wisconsin, it is very…bumblecat (78)in nate • 2 months agoNate Silver had this map in his latest post.It is really dumb when you actually look into it. The map purports to show cumulative inflation since January 2021. But what it is actually showing is "additional costs", rather than percentage.…pomeline (79)in nate • 2 months agoGood Nate Silver piece on pollsters potentially "herding" this cycle.In other words, releasing results that are similar to others. Small quibble though- polling violates the central limit theorem, so in reality these odds aren't as bad as they are here. But yeah…zafrada (78)in nate • 2 months agoGood piece by Nate Cohn on how a lot of pollsters are weighting on 2020 recall vote this election.Given a winner's bias in recall, this usually shifts polls towards the loser- which in this case would be Trump. As such, there is a stark difference in polls that weight on recall versus those…zafrada (78)in nate • 2 months agoNow do unemployment you dingus.We are above pre-pandemic forecasts for GDP and employment. That's objectively good. Pre-pandemic expected systemic slow growth for the 2020s. The CBO expected us to only grow by 1.7%. The labor…zafrada (78)in nate • 3 months agoThis is a good thread to understand cross tabs in polling.But it also makes me wonder why Nate Cohn so often treats his Times/Siena cross tabs as gospel if he understands this. As he notes cross tabs aren't weighted in most polls. The topline of a poll…zafrada (78)in rasmussen • 3 months agoNate continues racking up reasons to ignore him.Lol. Nate Silver didn't already have Rasmussen Reports labeled as a Republican pollster? He's a joke. At this point, it is well deserved to blacklist them entirely. They've been secretly…bumblecat (78)in polling • 3 months agoA reader asked Nate Silver if the polls will underestimate Trump.He answered that we have no way of knowing ahead of time. Poll bias is not consistent across elections. And this is important he added that the 2016 and 2020 biases aren't necessarily the same…zafrada (78)in electoral • 3 months agoHere is how the electoral college bias looks like in Nate Silver's model.Right now the model expects an electoral college bias of 1.7. That'd be significantly less than it was in 2020 (~3.9). Basically it means Harris can win the election if she wins the popular vote…zafrada (78)in nate • 4 months agoFwiw Nate Silver's election model thinks North Carolina and Georgia will vote together this year.They are highly correlated in his model. And either state could be the tipping point state. North Carolina has some similarities with Georgia. It has been getting bluer with demographic changes.…zafrada (78)in nate • 4 months agoFwiw Nate Silver's polling average sees RFK's effect as helping Trump by only 0.3%.FiveThirtyEight's polling average for reference sees RFK's effect as helping Trump by only 0.2%. His polling was on a downward spiral for the last few weeks. So it is probably best to assume his…bumblecat (78)in nate • 5 months agoPolling favours Harris right now.Harris is now leading in Nate Silver's election forecast with a 50.5% chance to win the election fwiw. Harris has a 1.4% lead in the national popular vote. She leads by 0.5% in Pennsylvania which…leguna (78)in nate • 5 months agoNate Silver's polling averages fwiw.He's weighting more recent polls more than older polls, but as far as I can tell still includes older polls. So these averages may be underestimating Harris' polling given her polling after she…pomeline (79)in nate • 5 months agoNate Silver election forecast.Nate Silver's new election forecast is out now that Harris is the nominee fwiw. I think it is far too early for this, but here you go. I think we will know where the race stands at the end of…zafrada (78)in election • 5 months agoIs Nate Silver finally admitting he's just doing election models based on vibes now?Fundamentals are an important part of election modeling: polls shift a lot over time polling error is a thing fundamentals have tended to refine forecasts early in the race when polls…nooses (78)in nate • 6 months agoBest polls give Biden a grim outlook.I mean Nate of all people should know state realignments across election cycles can be pretty large. Just look at how West Virginia went from a consistent blue state to one of the reddest states in…women-power (64)in nate • 7 months agoFinding the Best Quality Internet Without CompromiseFinding the Best Quality Internet Without Compromise In today's digital age, a reliable internet connection is more than just a convenience; it's a necessity. Whether you're streaming your…zafrada (78)in nate • 7 months agoBizarre and self-contradictory tweet (which is like all his tweets these days).Low-information swing voters would be most susceptible to the contours of how one of the largest newspapers in the country frames its coverage. Especially headlines. As definitionally, they would be…zafrada (78)in cross • 8 months agoMy dude is getting bad at the one thing he was actually good at.My dude is talking about the very large sample Harvard Youth poll that specifically polled young voters aged 18-29 lol. In other words, not crosstabs, but the topline polling of young voters in a…zafrada (78)in cnn • 9 months agoLol "the polls".Nate Silver is basing this on one flash poll by CNN. A flash poll that had a notably higher amount of Republicans in it compared to prior years. And even among that sample, Biden's speech was very…
