New: pollingAll contenthive-129948hive-196917krzzanhive-183959steemhive-180932photographyhive-185836uncommonlabhive-166405bitcoinhive-183397hive-144064hive-150122hive-188619hive-139150hive-109690hive-124908krsuccesshive-145157hive-184714hive-101145lifehive-193186TrendingNewHotLikersbumblecat (77)in polling • 18 hours agoA reader asked Nate Silver if the polls will underestimate Trump.He answered that we have no way of knowing ahead of time. Poll bias is not consistent across elections. And this is important he added that the 2016 and 2020 biases aren't necessarily the same…zafrada (78)in election • 18 hours agoNew Times/Siena battleground polling of Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona.Some of Trump's best state polling in awhile. Fwiw the North Carolina poll was conducted partly before the Mark Robinson scandal. I don't think it will have a huge effect on the top of the ticket…bumblecat (77)in election • 5 days agoNew Maine polling from in-state pollster Pan Atlantic Research.Not much polling of the state so far, but it can help show Harris' strength. Statewide Harris is up 9 points. Same margin Biden won in 2020. By district, Harris is beating Trump by 26 points in…zafrada (78)in election • 10 days agoNew YouGov poll after the debate.Harris up by 5 points among registered voters. 50% vote share. This represents a 4 point increase for Harris since their last poll in August. 56% say that Harris won the debate. Just 26% said…zafrada (78)in split • 12 days agoLatest Split Ticket Senate polling averages.Florida and Texas are reaches, but definitely worthwhile investments this cycle. If the Dems are going to hold the Senate, they may very well need them given Montana is going to be a tough race.…zafrada (78)in national • 13 days agoFiveThirtyEight polling update.National: Harris up 2.7. Arizona: Trump up 0.8. Georgia: Trump up 0.6. Michigan: Harris up 1.8. Nevada: Harris up 0.1. North Carolina: Harris up 0.2. Pennsylvania: Harris up 0.7.…leguna (78)in election • 15 days agoThese narratives relying on a single poll are dumb every election cycle.At least wait for the polling averages to shift before constructing a narrative. Right now this Times/Siena poll is out of step with the averages. And fwiw this Times poll is exactly the same as…bumblecat (77)in polling • 17 days agoPolls are not validated votes!Stop doing this. This isn't how anything works. Polling error and polling bias change across elections. In reality, both Biden and Clinton were in much tighter races than the polls were…zafrada (78)in democrat • 23 days agoMore Nebraska second district polling courtesy of Split Ticket.Lovely. Harris leads the district by 5 points. And Vargas leads incumbent representative Bacon. There is a very realistic electoral path that requires the district's single electoral vote. Polling…bumblecat (77)in fivethirtyeight • 26 days agoPolling update.FiveThirtyEight polling update. National: Harris up 3.4. Arizona: Harris up 0.1. Georgia: Harris up 0.4. Michigan: Harris up 3.0. Nevada: Harris up 1.2. North Carolina: Trump up 0.5.…bumblecat (77)in polling • 29 days agoAbout a month ago it was pretty clear that Trump was on his way to beating Biden.The only question was about margin. It seems that Harris is slightly ahead in the nation vote and the vote in the battleground states (which will decide the election) is up for grabs. But if I were…zafrada (78)in nebraska • last monthNebraska second district poll.Excellent. First poll of Nebraska's second district since Harris became the nominee. Harris up 8 points. This would be similar to the margin in 2020. There is one very realistic path to the…zafrada (78)in siena • last monthFresh battleground polling from Times/Siena.They now are polling North Carolina. Among likely voters, Harris up by 5 in Arizona. Harris up by 2 in North Carolina. Trump up by 1 in Nevada. Trump up by 4 in Georgia. In the NC governor's…bumblecat (77)in nebraska • last monthStill no Nebraska 2nd District polls since Harris became the nominee.Something to keep in mind as we have at least one realistic path to the White House that relies on it shown above. Fwiw, all the expert ratings expect it to go to Harris. But it was closer in…zafrada (78)in election • last monthFiveThirtyEight polling update.National: Harris up 2.7. Arizona: Harris up 0.7. Georgia: Harris up 0.1. Michigan: Harris up 3.4. Nevada: Trump up 0.2. North Carolina: Trump up 0.8. Pennsylvania: Harris up 2.2.…zafrada (78)in politics • last monthFiveThirtyEight polling update.Harris leading by 2.8% nationally. Harris leading by 0.3% in Arizona. Trump leading by 0.1% in Georgia. Harris leading by 3.4% in Michigan. Harris leading by 0.6% in Nevada. Harris leading…pomeline (78)in crosstab • 2 months agoLearning from crosstabs?This is fair. But my issue is that when we do have robust subsample polling and that robust polling contradicts the crosstabs, I'm going to assume the robust polling is correct. Especially if the…bumblecat (77)in election • 2 months agoCurrent polling map according to FiveThirtyEight.The wrinkle in this is that we wouldn't know who won for weeks due to ranked choice voting in Maine and Alaska. I should note all 7 battlegrounds are now competitive in the same polling, including…zafrada (78)in harris • 2 months agoFiveThirtyEight has released Harris/Trump polling averages.Damn sexy state polling. Harris leads 1.9 points in Michigan. Trump only leads by 1.1 points in Georgia. And Harris leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania. If Pennsylvania is the tipping point…leguna (78)in nate • 2 months agoNate Silver's polling averages fwiw.He's weighting more recent polls more than older polls, but as far as I can tell still includes older polls. So these averages may be underestimating Harris' polling given her polling after she…
