New: pollingAll contenthive-129948hive-196917krhive-185836hive-183959zzansteemhive-150122hive-180932photographyhive-101145hive-166405hive-183397hive-144064uncommonlabhive-188619hive-184714krsuccessbitcoinhive-145157hive-193637hive-103599hive-179660hive-180301hive-193186TrendingNewHotLikerspomeline (79)in polling • last monthTake this poll with a huge grain of salt.I've never heard of the Center for Strategic Politics before and they used the opt-in online pollster Pollfish. I'd wait for some reputable pollsters to cover this topic. Not that I don't think…bumblecat (78)in post • 2 months agoAnother new Navigator post mortem election poll.Trump far and away ahead of Harris on the top 3 issues to voters: inflation, immigration, and the economy. Inflation was the top issue for 43% of voters. Inflation especially was important to…zafrada (78)in ukraine • 2 months agoNew Gallup polling of Ukrainians.Zelensky's approval among Ukrainians is now at 60% in new Gallup polling. Honestly considering Ukrainian society that's contextually very high- they tend to have low trust in their presidents. For…zafrada (78)in ukraine • 2 months agoCoverage of the Gallup poll on Ukrainians has been pretty lousy.According to Gallup's own poll, only 27% of Ukrainians are open to territorial concessions to end the war. This particular question was only asked of the 52% that said yes to the previous poll…pomeline (79)in polling • 3 months agoConsumer sentiment has a huge partisan bias component based on who is in the White House.Fun thing with a high frequency online pollster like Morning Consult is you can see this flip literally occur because Donald Trump won the presidency. And yes this happened in 2016 when Trump won.…bumblecat (78)in election • 3 months agoPolling cross tabs exit polls.Courtesy of Adam Carlson, how the polling cross tabs compared to exit polls. Huge caveat here that exit polls are often wrong, especially in recent years. So validated voter data might look…bumblecat (78)in nate • 3 months agoHere's what a uniform normal polling error would look like for either candidate according to Nate Silver's current polling averages.So yeah, we could very well see a 7 battleground state sweep by either candidate. Typically polling error is correlated, especially among similar states. So if polls miss in Wisconsin, it is very…pomeline (79)in marist • 3 months agoFinal Marist national poll.I think that's about it for high quality polls. Harris up 4 points among likely voters. 51% vote share. That 47% for Trump is a consistent vote share for him in polling this cycle. In a good…zafrada (78)in black • 3 months agoBlack Voter Project polling.This recontact polling from the Black Voter Project shows Black voters coming home to Kamala Harris over time as undecideds shift to Harris. I've been convinced the Black cross tabs in polling are…pomeline (79)in nate • 3 months agoGood Nate Silver piece on pollsters potentially "herding" this cycle.In other words, releasing results that are similar to others. Small quibble though- polling violates the central limit theorem, so in reality these odds aren't as bad as they are here. But yeah…bumblecat (78)in new • 3 months agoNew Noble Predictive Insights poll of Arizona.Conducted from October 28–30. A 5 point gap between the Presidential race and Senate race seems a lot more realistic than the current polling averages gap of 8 points. We just don't see that type…arbitration (78)in election • 3 months agoClose but not hopeless.Yes, it somehow really is this close, despite the rally with the creepy "MASS DEPORTATION NOW" signs, the talk of being a dictator and using the military on "the enemy within", the looniness of the…leguna (78)in election • 3 months agoNew poll from Arab News Research/YouGov of Arab Americans.Fairly similar to the Arab American Institute's polling of this group with both candidates getting around ~40%. Bottom half is what poll respondents said was their 2020 vote. The Arab American…pomeline (79)in election • 3 months agoIt is close either way, but yeah don't let doomerism take hold because of 1-2 point shifts.I imagine that's part of the whole angle of these Republican pollsters. Stoke Republican turnout and make Democrats fall into doomer spirals and fail to mobilize. At this point unless you are a…pomeline (79)in election • 3 months agoAll 7 battlegrounds are well within average polling error.Also Florida is within a 2016 and 2020 sized error. And 8 Senate races are well within normal Senate polling error. Including Texas, Florida, and Montana Senate races, which could decide the…leguna (78)in nyt • 3 months agoThis is a great New York Times piece on polling error and bias.As you can see polling error can go both ways. Even in the same election, polls have underestimated both candidates depending on the state. And as the piece notes, the polling error in 2016 and…pomeline (79)in senate • 3 months agoHere are where the Senate and House election forecasts stand.Race to the White House: Senate: Republicans with a 62.5% chance of taking the Senate. House: Democrats with a 64.2% chance of taking the House. Split Ticket: Senate: Republicans with a 73%…zafrada (78)in nebraska • 3 months agoThe Nebraska Senate race is only separated by a point in the polling.If Osborn wins it could be an interesting Senate balance. He's running as an independent and it is unclear who he will caucus with. In the Senate, each party votes for their party leader and the…zafrada (78)in times • 3 months agoHere is the Times/Siena polling of Hispanic voters.Pretty close to Pew's polling of Hispanics. Some slippage from prior years, but not as much as other polling. Trump hasn't improved his Hispanic support from 2020. Harris' is a bit below Biden's…bumblecat (78)in election • 3 months agoSubgroup polling.Good charts for seeing how subgroup polling can often be quite off from the actual election results (polling is weighted for the topline, not the crosstabs). Robust polling of both subgroups sees…
