New: probabilityAll contenthive-129948krhive-196917zzansteemhive-185836hive-166405hive-183959hive-180932hive-150122uncommonlabhive-144064photographyhive-145157hive-101145hive-183397hive-188619bitcoinlifehive-181136hive-184714hive-193637hive-109690krsuccesshive-124908TrendingNewHotLikerslupafilotaxia (75)in hive-175254 • 2 months agoPesticides and the high probability of death in humansCONTENT Today I wanted to address a highly controversial content, this because the topic I bring you is related to our food, and the effect that pesticides used to protect crops either from…bumblecat (78)in us • 4 months agoRecession still unlikely.The probability we were in a recession in July was 1.96% (out of 100). This model uses the major coincident economic indicators to determine the probability we are in a recession. Historically the…bumblecat (78)in nate • 5 months agoPolling favours Harris right now.Harris is now leading in Nate Silver's election forecast with a 50.5% chance to win the election fwiw. Harris has a 1.4% lead in the national popular vote. She leads by 0.5% in Pennsylvania which…pomeline (79)in nber • 5 months agoRecession probability.So I've often posted the NBER recession probability model using four major economic indicators. There's another recession model that solely uses GDP. It relies on the fact that recessions and…zafrada (78)in economy • 7 months agoRecession probability.The probability we were in a recession in April was 0.9%. This model undergoes revision as more data becomes available for previous months than was available at the time of the initial…pomeline (79)in andrew • 7 months agoHuberman math!Lol this dude has 5 million followers on Instagram. It is 74% if you use correct independent probability btw. And if I'm not mistaken he's using the peak fertility probability. In other words if a…zafrada (78)in america • 8 months agoRecession probability remains low.The probability we were in a recession in March was 0.5%. This model undergoes revision as more data becomes available for previous months than was available at the time of the initial…zafrada (78)in fred • 9 months agoRecession probability is up, but overall still very low.The probability we were in a recession in February was 1.48%. That's tied for the highest level in the last few years, but still extremely low. This model uses the major coincident economic…zafrada (78)in economy • last yearRecession probabilities remain low.The probability we were in a recession in November was only 0.82%. October's probability got revised down to 0.88%. So at least according to this model our current likelihood of being in a recession…pomeline (79)in probability • last yeara subjectivist interpretation of probability.Logicism seems only to be widely recognized as objectivist exactly in the case of the objective Bayesians, who add an axiom of completeness and some variation on the Principle of Insufficient…zafrada (78)in economy • last yearRecession probability.The probability we were in a recession in October was 2.22%. Highest point in recent months, though far below what would generally precede a recession historically. This model has a fairly decent…arbitration (78)in numbers • last yearThis isn't as good as the Monty Hall Paradox, but I learned a new one today.In a random list of digits, which of these sequences would you expect to find first, or are the odds equal? 12345 vs 33333. Would you believe that 12345 is favored by about 11%? Likewise 24680…rkeles (26)in data • last yearDiscover Probabilities with Up-to-Date Data: The Secret of Bayes' TheoremBayes' theorem is an important concept used in probability theory and statistics. It allows us to update the probability of an event's occurrence based on prior knowledge or observed evidence when…pomeline (79)in economy • 2 years agoProbability of recession.The probability we were in a recession in March was 0.7% according to the model that uses the coincident economic indicators. Here's how the model has looked since January 2022. We only reached a…kenji11 (56)in earthquake • 2 years agoLately, there have been a lot of news and documentary programs about preparing for another major earthquake. | 最近は、また大地震についてのニュースやドキュメンタリーなどの番組がよくやっていますね。今日も大地震のニュースや番組が、やっていましたがこれは近々大地震が起こる可能性があるからだと思いますし日本は30年以内に大地震が起こる確率が、70％～80％と言われておりまた地震が連発する可能性もあると言われています。 Today, there were news and programs about major earthquakes, and I think this is…zafrada (78)in economy • 2 years agoThe latest probability we are currently in a recession is 0.5% as of September.This model creates a probability we are in a recession using four monthly coincident economic indicators: non-farm payroll employment, industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer…zafrada (78)in economy • 2 years agoLatest recession probability is 1.2% as of August.Extremely low probability that we are currently in a recession. This model creates a probability we are in a recession using four monthly coincident economic indicators: non-farm payroll…arbitration (78)in math • 2 years agoWith the baseball season winding down, and "magic numbers" on the minds of many fans, my mind turns to ol' Pascal's Pinball Machine.That's how I explain it to my friends -- not that I teach math, but sometimes I get the chance to veer away from literature for a while. If you imagine a ball dropped from above and banging against…muhammadadil (80)in life • 2 years agoOptions With a High Probability of SuccessIf you're looking for options with a high probability of success, you've come to the right place. You'll find strategies to increase your odds of success with Bernoulli distributions, options with a…flexbooth (78)in conspiracy • 3 years agoConspiracy theories are a horrible way to spread liberty and advance a free society.For clarity, my position is not that no conspiracy theory has never been proven true nor admitted to, that's not an accurate statement. My actual position is that most of the conspiracies thrown…
