Ethereum Classic (ETC) Valuation: $0.71 Price, 65% Lower (Fixed Version + Updates)

chakra74 (49) · 8 years ago

Good analysis. If anything you're being generous to ETC. I believe the long term market cap will be under 10 million. Consider the fact that Bitshares has a market cap of 13 million and has created a whole new coin with developer support. It was the basis for Steem itself.

No. In the mid to long term ETC should fall even lower.

$0.67

3 votes

eeks (68) · 8 years ago

Going into, I expected a $10 million market cap or lower. Another way of looking at value is just to look at comps and what does it mean to be a subscale altcoin? It usually means goblin town. And in this case, ETC is arguably an ALT of an ALT, 2 different very difficult critical mass barriers to overcome.

But I kept an open mind and followed my process and used the current information from the markets and the hash rates to guide the process. We'll see who is right. It's right now trading at my model's estimate of the Silbert price. Maybe it stays there if he's right?

We'll see!

$0.64

aaseb (49) · 8 years ago

Did the rest of the DAO on the ETC chain really get drained? I thought it was secured by slock-it.

$0.64

eeks (68) · 8 years ago

It's unclear what will happen to it or if the RHG is active on that chain or not. See my last update on theDAO situation on the Classic Chain.

$0.64

discombobulated (62) · 8 years ago

Wow, very good read. It inspires me to take more time on my own posts (it's hard with the excitement of a fast growing platform).

> What advantages does ETH have? Support from the Ethereum Foundation

To me this is the biggest advantage for them bar none. BUT, as you pointed out, I am also concerned about when ETH transitions to PoS. Will they be able to do it correctly and make it work when so many other PoS chains have crumbled? If ETC sticks with mining, this could bring a very real competition between the two IMO.

But my economic knowledge is very limited compared to @eeks . I will be following you for more updates =)

$0.60

eeks (68) · 8 years ago

Thanks. All it takes is will power. And like 15 years experience.

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3 votes

discombobulated (62) · 8 years ago

Well, I have already paid thousands in "tuition" when I tried day-trading the stock market a couple years ago... So only 13 more years and hopefully not too much more $ for tuition haha

$0.47

eeks (68) · 8 years ago

That's the best way to learn ;) Losing money is a great teacher.

$0.57

liberosist (70) · 8 years ago

I agree much more with your lower valuation! $0.70 target makes much more sense to me - in line with the 0.001 BTC floor I mentioned in your last post.

$0.49

krassvs (41) · 8 years ago

Crazy times. I woke up to a message from Kraken that they basically just give me my ETH value in ETC also. I still have to find a proper explanation why this happened. Does somebody care to explain? Also: Sell now? Its not worth so much.

$0.45

thecryptofiend (74) · 8 years ago

Fantastic post. Very sensibly argued. Sadly the crypto world is not sensible or rational. My favourite thing is "There may be a troll premium to ETC" - lol - this is spot on - I think I would say there is a "troll premium" in a lot of crypto.

$0.17

cheetah (77) · 8 years ago

Hi! I am a content-detection robot. This post is to help manual curators; I have NOT flagged you.
Here is similar content:
https://steemit.com/crypto-news/@eeks/what-is-ethereum-classic-worth-70-less-crypto-valuation-and-scenario-analysis
NOTE: I cannot tell if you are the author, so ensure you have proper verification in your post (or in a reply to me), for humans to check!

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5 votes

eeks (68) · 8 years ago

I know I know cheetah, that version got corrupted by a phone edit and omits all the price discussion, which is the heart of the piece and most of the most important research and open item points. I would edit my previous piece but I cannot -- it paid out after just 12 hours so when I woke up this morning, I was hosed. It's most important to me above all else that I get this right.

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vishal1 (2) · 8 years ago

Nice work

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ghostyeti (51) · 8 years ago

Many thanks @eeks

I asked Jake a question about this subject over at coinfund slack and he directed me here for a detailed review and I got all my answers in under 10 minutes :)

Like the reply below by @thecrypofiend the points raised in your article should in theory play out but being crypto there is always that chance that the end result will be something that no one expected.

Ive always been in favour of the hard fork in princple but hold neither as assets. Think I'll let this one play out and safely watch from the sidelines.

Many thanks, upvoted. Please keep up the writing.

eeks (68) · 8 years ago

Completely agree that crypto is full of the most unlikely. It's what makes it exciting and difficult to handicap.

$0.13

robi-rusmana (49) · 8 years ago

good info

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