Mayer Multiple: Trace puts out his next set of "potentials"

aggroed (78) in crypto • 7 years ago

Trace Mayer is the guy behind the Mayer Multiple. The Mayer Multiple is the ratio of the current price to the 200 moving day average. They then model that with a simulation to figure out when buying bitcoin is profitable. The Mayer Multiple discussion is hosted here: https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-mayer-multiple/

Twitter

There is an automated twitter feed available here: https://twitter.com/TIPMayerMultple

The last tweet says the following: Mayer Multiple- @TIPMayerMultple, 18 minutes ago, The current Mayer Multiple is 0.88 with a BTC price of $6,964.60 USD and a 200 day moving average of $7,895.30 USD

What it's doing is looking at the current price of bitcoin and comparing it to the 200 day moving average price of bitcoin. Over the last 200 days the average price of bitcoin is $7,895. When they took a snapshot of price the current price was $6,964. When you divide the second number by the first you get 0.88, which is to say that the current price is 88% of the moving average price.

Scanning this overall chart you can see that the multiple is at 0.88 only 18.85% of the time (sorry for the black box around the wrong number, that's from the website, I didn't generate this, you should be looking above that at the 0.8-0.9 section about 5 rows down:

The Mayer Multiple is below 1

While for many holders of bitcoin that isn't a fun prospect, but for people holding cash that could be exciting for you or your family. It's a rare opportunity to purchase the coin below the 200 day moving average. Of course price could still go down, and there's risks, but for people looking for a bargain entrance on cryptos it would seem that starting sometime around now and going out for what may be the next week or two could be very strong entry points. This could be a crash... from the interest I saw recently in Boston I don't think it's a crash, but it is a possibility.

Trace has a personal Twitter feed too

Less than a month ago he put out this chart:

He updated it today:

We've reached as low at $6800

That puts the Mayer Multiple at a low of 0.86. When they run the simulations basically any investment that comes in below their average price representing the 200 day moving average times 1.47 ends up being a good time to buy in. That said I've started buying some litecoin with cash that I still have around. There's may be lower lows still to come and we may have a few more weeks before this correction ends. I'm still pretty comfortable coming in here.

I don't know you or your circumstances

Crypto is risky. I don't know how much risk tolerance you have or should have in your portfolio. Make your own choices. For me I think this is a strong time to buy and will look for some even better deals over the next week or two and keep layering in some purchases.

crypto finance money trading bitcoin

7 years ago by aggroed (78)

$270.32

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isaac.rodebush (54) · 7 years ago

We have entered a buying range hard to nail down a price or time line of how long we will have this opportunity but oh be wise what more can I say

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1 vote

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michiel (68) · 7 years ago

I think this is the best investment advice you can get in a time that everyone is panicing. Offcourse it is not sure yet where the bottom is, but it will come because BTC is indeed fundamentally stronger than ever. I am all in in crypto already, but if I wasn't I would start buy dollar average from now. In a few years it will almost certainly pay off.

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1 vote

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freedompoint (75) · 7 years ago (edited)

It is a wild ride for sure. There seems to be a little panic in the air, but you definately see the excitement from people looking to buy low. I just hope it doesn't stay low haha.@freedompoint

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3 votes

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oyvindsabo (53) · 7 years ago

I actually think that staying low, but stable for a while could be good. Then people considering buying in wont fear a sudden drop so much. I think a slow growth would be the best outcome. Then people will have time to do their research and limit their risks, rather than buying in just out of fear to miss out.

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1 vote

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lukebrn (58) · 7 years ago

Thanks for sharing this @aggroed. It's interesting that you found this from Trace Mayer - I generally do not follow him (no reason, I just have a small group that I follow that I feel make good calls, and don't need to expand yet).

I do however respect his opinion and views, and I'm happy to see the conclusion that he has come to.. I'm thinking that the end of February/March will be a good time for the market, but that's just my opinion.

I agree that it is a good time to buy (again, just my opinion). Although personally personally I do not hold near as much BTC as I used to, and I now focus on holding coins that I feel are doing good for the world in some way, shape or form, be it providing a useful service, working in the renewable energy sector, or working in the medicinal industry, I try to invest and work with cryptocurrencies that fill this role.

Currently, I am trying to get delegated SP for a project that I am working on, where I will use my experience and skills to grow the Steemit platform, and increase the ratio of daily active users to Steemit accounts. I can explain it in more detail if you are interested, but I do not want to come out with a long, unrelated comment on your posts. Let me know if you are interested! Thanks again for sharing this interesting piece.

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2 votes

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sebastiaaan (51) · 7 years ago

Crypto currency are highly volatile for me bitcoin could still go down and am already accumulating as much as i can now.. The mayer multiple is highly informative and i also love the analysis.. Followed on twitter already.. Thanks for sharing mate @aggroed

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1 vote

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ender (52) · 7 years ago

Thanks for flagging. I bought his dip way too early and was out of cash by 6900! Congrats to those who waited

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1 vote

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davebrewer (59) · 7 years ago

BTC will put in a low and will recover in 2018. There is potential that the low will be much lower than any current prediction.

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@davebrewer/hodlers-can-be-uninformed-morons-do-you-understand-you-are-not-buying-lottery-tickets

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1 vote

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sistem (60) · 7 years ago

For me I think this is a strong time to buy

You just stole this words from my mouth. This is really a good time to buy.

Crypto ia not for the feeble minded but for people who are strong at heart. Btc will bounce back that's for sure. We don't just know when

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1 vote

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funbobby51 (59) · 7 years ago

$115,000 per coin seems a little optimistic but who knows?

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1 vote

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auliaturrahman (53) · 7 years ago

Your post is pretty good and lots of upvote
why my post is never upvote people ????
do i because low level is not open please upvote me and comment i want to go forward also kayak you thanks

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jamiliafidan (48) · 7 years ago

Good post, very useful.

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wakeel (29) · 7 years ago

Bitcoin decrease more but will rise again this week

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xabi (71) · 7 years ago

Yeah, don't invest what you are prepared to loose...
I think 2018 is the year of Alt coins....What you think @aggroed???

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aggroed (78) · 7 years ago

I think all of crypto will win. Eventually people will switch from greed to fear. I'm probably just a front runner of that. This isn't a crash from what I see. it's just a correction, and we'll come roaring back. Main coins, alt coins, I don't think there's really losers here except for people that panic sell, but that might be right for them. Who knows.

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timuann (59) · 7 years ago

i am new of steemit.so,i don,t know cryptocurrency matter.but your post to reading i know about cryptocurrency.thank you dear for your valuable post.@aggroed..

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cemke (61) · 7 years ago

I aggroed with you :) Thanks for the valuable post. I think it will rise again soon.

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fajabox (46) · 7 years ago

great post sir.......
i think crypto is best now
resteemit

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johnmarks (41) · 7 years ago

best blog that is
I have little bit knowledge about bitcoin
carry on

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leaony (10) · 7 years ago

interesting contests to follow,what about the theme, whether one day one theme such as colorchallenge, thanks.

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babangsunan (50) · 7 years ago

I love your post and post you very good friend thanks for sharing interesting things

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aydayodeji (50) · 7 years ago

All have been saying, the best time to invest is now. You just need to follow the right people with the latest updates.

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eldahcee (54) · 7 years ago (edited)

Thanks for this info. For some days now, I haven't checked my wallet, cuz the sight of me seeing my balance depreciating by the hour actually ruins my day.

But I'm hopeful and very optimistic that crypto would soon gain stability and pick up...

Thanks for sharing this info. We have all benefitted from it

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dwarfche (47) · 7 years ago

Of course crypto is risky. As a lot of people say, do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. So, do your research for a crypto you like, check out some technical analyses. This way your chance to lose decreases a lot, atleast I think that way.

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austineweb (29) · 7 years ago

Market is bleeding seriously

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razibahmed (49) · 7 years ago

you create a great post....i impressed to see it...Lot of thanks for Sharing this informative and valuable post....best of luck

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fedismaoui (45) · 7 years ago

I agree with the idea of buying this period , it seems a good opportunity, great job mate

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joalvarez (68) · 7 years ago

I agree with you that this is a strong time to buy and that is what I am doing and plan on doing.
Thanks for this share

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justanopinion (32) · 7 years ago

yeah!! In the case of cryptocurrency, increased regulation is the reason for the crash. That’s definitely bad news for short-term investors and long-term traders should wait for a successful retest of the lows before buying
Feb. 5, dropping below $7,000 for the first time since the middle of November 2017
that’s a big drop for any market. However, a price crash in Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency is nothing new. Bitcoin dies and comes back to life on a regular basis. One website estimates Bitcoin’s death toll stands at 249 and counting, dating back to 2010. but how low will it go? actually i don't know, because Nobody can predict the future.

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rkaitra (50) · 7 years ago

thanks for sharing crypto news carry on.

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ckallen (39) · 7 years ago

HMMMM super interesting. Thanks for the info keep posting. Praying for bitcoin

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ceritanegeri (16) · 7 years ago

Very good

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akon2 (20) · 7 years ago

thanks for sharing us

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halidabahri (59) · 7 years ago

Read about Crypto is very exited. Thank you mister have shared

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mahanjonk (35) · 7 years ago

well post.... thanks for sharing dear

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steemitforce (27) · 7 years ago

Hello aggroed,

I am new to Steemit and saw your post. It was a great article talking about the Mayer Multiple. I am totally new to all of this, but it is great information. Thank you @aggroed.

Please checkout my first post @steemitforce

May the steemitforce be with you.

Keep steeming ahead,

@steemitforce

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longming (52) · 7 years ago

according to my estimates. bitcoin prices fall by the yearly charts go down like this. the price drops when we buy. for those who have bought bitcoin. hold until the price rises. I'm sure this is a game of money people. We have small money so have to follow their way.

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willywealth (57) · 7 years ago

So profound. Thanks for sharing

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akzul (42) · 7 years ago

Help me vote

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rollandthomas (74) · 7 years ago

According to the firm Autonomous Next, the number of hedge funds investing in digital assets like Bitcoin has grown rapidly to more than 100. Since the launch of Bitcoin Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in December 2017, it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone why the price of Bitcoin is down 50% from the high.

Only Retail Investors chase price and buy high and sell low, while the Professionals buy low and sell high. The Hedge Funds have purposely sold Bitcoin futures to get in a better price.

At the moment, there is a war taking place between the buyers (Hedge Funds) and the sellers (Retail Investors) called capitulation. That line in the sand was at $9000. Capitulation is when investors give up any previous gains, by selling, in an effort to get out of the market. Capitulations are outcomes that result from the maximum psychological and financial pain that can be endured by a group before throwing in the towel. The Retail Investors are throwing in the towel after seeing a more than 50% correction in the Bitcoin price to the buyers, the Hedge Funds. With 100s of millions of dollars to invest, we are witnessing an accumulation phase by the Hedge Funds between $6000 and $9000.

The Hedge Funds are loading up and buying from the Retail Investors. But to fill all their buy orders, as the sell orders dry up, price must go down to the next stack of sell orders. We are approaching what I believe will be the bottom of bitcoin at $6000. My first target is $12,000 and my second target is $17,000 over the next 3 - 9 months.

The easy money has been made over the last 12-18 months. With the big boys in the game now, the rules have changes. The question is, are you ready to play to win with a new play book?

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor. Do your own research before making investment decisions. By reading this post, you acknowledge and accept full responsibility of any gains or losses.

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abdul1234 (43) · 7 years ago

I never knew about him until now,thanks for posting

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amlindenburg (25) · 7 years ago

I love this analysis, but it still only looks reactively at the past. There are multiple scenarios that could happen in the future. I agree that based on these number it looks like a good time to buy.

But please people, only invest what you can lose! I saw there's a Bitcoin Hodler Hotline being opened in Russia, just saying :P

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altcoinbuzz (52) · 7 years ago

great post

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