So here’s my take on it , as per astrology 5th feb is the date for good or stable crypto scene - currently , Scenario 1: Many people would be. thinking that it's a bear trap and they would take their longs here. Well if it was already a trap then why has it not been pulled instantly?
When a trap comes in transitional phase (a phase when we enter from bear to bull cycle or vice verse), it comes for both bear and bulls simultaneously. I'm expecting a slight green. Then one candle that would liquidate longs first, then huge bounce will wipe out shorts. Then whales will buy everything on the order book. Only that way you could have one big green candle. Btc has very high market capital. It won't practically go up from from 39 to 49 with routine orders in between. The only possible way to do it is to remove limit orders from it's path that is only possible by creating fear first, then one last wipe out so it does not have much orders on it's way to the moon. This is how shitcoins work, this is how every coin works, btc is also a shit coin with a bigger market capital with the same mechanism.
My first gut feel is 39700 again with an if condition, otherwise I'm not expecting anything below 37,400.
The wick also depends upon what leverage traders are using. The higher the leverage, the deeper the bottom will be. This is the moment when btc is consolidating and exchanges are doing there stats to decide how deep they are planning.