Trade War (please join the discussion)
Yesterday I was watching one of my favourite youtubers; "Cryptobud" and he recently uploaded a very interesting video. In that video, Cryptobud was trying to prove that it is quite possible that the current trade war between two superpowers (USA and China) could be good for crypto.
I totally recommend watching the entire video as he did a great job with it:
This topic in particular interest me a lot as I myself do worry about future whenever I see tension growing between the USA and China. With D.Trumph in charge and knowing his agressive approach towards some world leaders, it's easy to for-see that things may get worse.
Investors do not like uncertainty and many of them will be looking for "safe place" to store their assets. I strongly believe that Cryptobud is right and bitcoin will attract many of those investors. That in effect should create more demand which would result with higher market prices.
Im aware that many of those who follow me have way more experience than I do and I would be happy if you guys would share your view on this particular subject. I read all comments and I also reply to every single one of them.I really would love to hear from you guys your opinion on how the currently escalating trade war could affect cryptomarket.
Cheers,
Piotr
Great question, @crypto.piotr. Sorry I missed this post until now. As far as bitcoin hitting a new ATH, I'm guessing it probably will eventually, but my bet is more on Stellar with all the news just beginning to work it's way through the system and working their partnership with IBM, DeLoitte, ClickX, Stripe and a load of others, which tie in loads of big banks like Deutche Bank, which is huge.
I've been wanting to do a post on what's happening there as the central banks are in talks with them and leaning more and more towards making Stellar a big part of their own roll out of crypto currencies. So that would be huge. I know - central banks rule the world and the current Debt-based FIAT monetary system, which at it's core is essentially the main foundation of all the worlds problems today in my view. And of course we all know that it's all running very close to the end of it's cycle and needs a major overhaul, hopefully before any major crash. So what better than the quickest, cheapest to use and probably the best non-profit blockchain technology out there to help bridge the gap along with IBM, the oldest player in technology.
I just don't think the current power elite are just going to go away like that, but in order to have change without the worst case scenario of a huge global crash, we need some sort of mediating step away from the FIAT scam into something new, which can return sovereignty more back to where it belongs - the people.
So (back on point) above I said I'm guessing bitcoin probably will hit a new ATH eventually, but so much of that hinges on how they end up working with Lightning Network. It seems like because Stellar is closer to implementing even the Lightning Network, in part at least, because they never had any of the problems bitcoin has had the last year. So depending on how things develop and roll out, there is a chance that bitcoin will get so left in the dust that they never reach a new ATH at all. It's the first generation of blockchain and really has very limited utility at this point. Whereas Stellar is adapting and offering more and more of so many of the best aspects of so many others. So I hold very little BTC compared to Stellar. Anyway, break's over and I've gotta run... Take care :)
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It's true guys so much depends on the tech and what it can deliver, in tandem with global affairs. I'm hodling Ether for now, but it better get its act together as EOS, Ziliqua etc are coming. But transparent, collaborate blockchains/hashgraphs/hybrids will change many things we cannot see them all.
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Excellent point, @ade-greenwise! I also believe it is all mostly determined by the elephant in the room i.e. the power elite cartel who are essentially ruling the world by virture of controlling the "money" supply printing presses, which are all pretty much electronic keystrokes these days, anyway. Their objective to those "in-the-know" is to bring stability to markets, but clearly political "Trade Wars" certainly play into the equation, as @crypto.piotr brings to question with this overall post.
If you noticed, the exact day the CME launched bitcoin on Dec. 17, 2017, watching the charts, market depth of open orders on the order book, etc., showed clear and steady market manipulation bots which essentially turned the bitcoin bull market into the bear market it has been ever since. I've read a few articles that support this with other data too my own feeling of this going back to Oct. '17, when it was confirmed that both CBOE and CME (the big one) would launch bitcoin in Dec. Many have long known of massive market manipulation of the Gold and Silver markets for years and how the handle of the whip has been through the futures markets. Bitcoin is now just an addition to that, to hedge their control of the disruptive nature of crypto. I had thought of writing a post on that one too, before I got so nuked by the steemit censors on trivial matters. Who knows though.
One last point I wanted to make is if you go to, for example, the market depth chart of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Stellar on Poloniex, by scrolling down the page to just above Trade History, you will notice a far larger buy wall mounting on Stellar than the other top 2 giants of the market. This indicates bets are being made to move funds more into Stellar than the other two. I find this data extremely interesting for trading indicators. Also, on Binance, if you look at the XLM/ETH trading pair, click the "Depth" tab in the upper right of the chart, and scroll out to widen the view, at the moment I see a monster Stellar tsunami of buy orders on the verge of moving huge sums of money from Ethereum into Stellar. It is the same, but to a lesser degree on the XLM/BTC trading pair.
This worries me some on the Ethereum side of the equation, which I also hold. I know Jed McCaleb, who basically founded Stellar, has said in the past that while Stellar is better for more simple smart contracts, Ethereum is better for more complex ones, but that was months ago now and a lot has really been happening with Stellar behind the scenes that IBM, one of their main partners, as well as some other sources, have started to let slip out some, which really does seem to indicate Stellar developers are aiming to develop most of the best of all the others in the cyrpto currency space.
Of course, they manipulate the market depth as well, given traders watch that data for market indicators. In a market which is manipulated like it is, it is my view that market depth often times gives more accurate data as trading indicators than your typical TA, which in crypto is so often wrong. That's my take at the moment... Gotta run, guys :)
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Just a quick update: Despite the above XLM-ETH-BTC data being that way, as stated above, for a good week or more, it pretty much no longer is and is more or less the same between all 3 now. Many have spoken about this spoofing tactic, such as on Kaiser Report on RT, of how the trading bots, which run like 80% of all trades now in all markets, use spoofing of the open order data with fake (or orders they do not intend to fill) as part of their strategy to manipulate the markets. There's no doubt that the central banker, whales etc. Are at it again, pounding the crypto market down across the board. Just glancing at the coinmarketcap.com there isn't anyone less that 1% down in the red over the last hour all the way down to the 64th position. It's absolutely incredible to see them get away with such manipulation of the market.
On point of the topic of this original post, I can't help but believe that this most certainly ties into the Trade War in one way or another, and it is quite possible that the strategy is to hold/drive the crypto market down until no one has much interest anymore in it and/or until they have enough regulations to keep it down. Who knows. One thing is for sure, it sure is driving a lot of us to be very nervous of the falling market.
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I totally missed that comment of your until now. Thx man. Good read.
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I just had to re-read it to understand more :)
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Ziliqua ? wtf is this? :)
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I thought the same thing.
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hi Charles.
Thx for this amazing and rich reply
I still dont know much about stellar but it seem that it's somehow similar to Nano (old raiblocks).
Am I right?
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I don't know a lot about Nano (Raiblocks). Stellar was actually my own first post on steemit at https://steemit.com/blockchain/@positivesynergy/why-stellar-lumens-xlm-str-is-one-of-my-favorite-crypto-currencies where I did a fairly comprehensive write up on it.
I have a playlist of some of the better videos about Stellar on my YouTube channel at
And no that first video isn't me... It's some young dude who did a great recent video on Stellar. So I moved it to the top of the list of videos. Several of the next ones are Stellar.org videos, etc. They give some good insight into it... I also saw an article on reddit saying Paypal is looking into building their gateway into the crypto world too. Who knows... I'm just getting tired of this long drawn out drain on the market overall.
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I kind of know that dude because Ive been following his youtube channel for some time already
Thx again for sharing mate.
ps. I just used paypal yesterday to receive some payments. their fees are so bloody high. I really hope blockchain will allow it to be adjusted and lowered
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Crypto is still too small to be even significantly relevant in a trade war between the USA and China. Ofcourse if crypto gets massive adoption as is to be expected then it will be a big deal. One could imagine massive hacks that steal a nations wealth and transmit it away. Such an action would be a serious violation of sovereignity and an act of war. Also crypto will be a tool that makes it possible to avoid banks and as such many US sanctions. It also has the potential to make it harder for a country to know what another country is up to because it might be harder to follow the money.
Ofcourse one must understand that if China and the USA end up in a trade war or military war they both lose rather than win.
Going forward as China asserts itself as a new superpower it will be very difficult for the USA to adjust to the new reality and to accept that China has interests and that it will act accordingly in it's area of influence. The USA will feel disrespected and see this as an act of war even if the Chinese interests that China wishes to uphold are no where near the continental USA.
China holds massive amounts of US debt. If China were to even demand a small but noticeable amount be repaid the USA would be in big problems.
If the USA would abandon it's empire policies and reduce it's wars and global military footprint and instead invest this money in education, healthcare, infrastructure and peaceful technology then the USA would be in a position to slow Chinas rise or possibly to benefit from it. America would be great again.
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Thank you for such a rich reply.
Indeed crypto is still very small and for that reason it can easily grow if this trade war escalate and investors would look for so called "safe heaven".
Trade war may result in inflation and crypto is deflationary and that may attact more investors running away from regular markets.
I like to believe that it may happend ;)
"One could imagine massive hacks that steal a nations wealth and transmit it away. "
I never thought about it.
Cryptos may allow to avoid banks, but exchanges will not allow it.
And goverments will most likely have all information about us from exchanges.
So goverments will know pretty much all our activity since blockchain is very transparent.
"China holds massive amounts of US debt. If China were to even demand a small but noticeable amount be repaid the USA would be in big problems."
Could they possibly do that? Would US be forced to pay back? Or maybe Trumph can ignore their demands?
"America would be great again."
I think this is not going to happend ever again.
America got stronger because they benefited during second world war and they made their position very strong.
Now they turned away from forign markets and it seem that entire europe and africa is turning towards china.
I think within next few years US will not be as important (especially once silk road will be finished) and I cant see how would they got back what they have lost.
What would you say about following and supporting each other? You're very responsive plus we share similar interests.
Perhaps you could drop me a message: [email protected]
I would love to keep in touch
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Yes, I think it will cross again the last set mark. Cryptocurrency is most vulnerable market because most of the countries when turn towards it, it gets a small shock. But the new things are always getting step motherly treatment first but they always surge.
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thank you for your reply buddy. appreciate it
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It is always tricky calling when and if a coin will hit an all time high. There is so much at play and so many factors manipulating every market in an attempt to gain advantage. Bitcoin should (I say should as long as it maintains market dominance) reach new all time highs, and if it doesn't, the overall market will (with a new dominance structure). It is an inevitability with fiat currencies inflating and digital assets gaining mainstream acceptance (and not inflating). The market needs to grow in a healthy way. The late 2017 bull run was out of control and this correction is healthy. BTC is still higher than it was before the last bull run. 20K is just forshadowing for what is to come.
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Hi Don
Very true. Predicting when coin will hit all time high is indeed very tricky. I agree pretty much with everything you said. Just one question. You mentioned that currencies are not inflating. Inflation does cause some issues and challenges but woudnt deflation be even worse?
Thanks to inflation we have more and more money, that can be accessed even by the poorest (distrubution is only improving). With crypto it will be the other way around. Those who did not start in early stages will be "doomed" to be poor in this society.
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Inflation typically benefits the wealthiest who are essentially able to "claim" all of the money that is being created out of thin air.
To simplify that... if there is a bank (like the Bank of Canada which prints new Canadian Currency) that lends out 100 billion dollars at 5.4% annually... Once that sum has been paid back... there is an extra 5.4 billion dollars in circulation. It is not the poor people who are benefitting from that money. In fact, since there is now more money in supply, the value of the dollar has gone down and in turn chocolate bars are smaller and pop costs an extra quarter. That is how the poor people feel inflation. Everything costs more or the portions are smaller.
With Bitcoin, there is no way that banks and the mega rich can benefit from inflating a currency. As Bitcoin goes up (or as fiat goes down to BTC), it is not the portion of the chocolate bar that gets smaller, it is the amount of BTC required to buy a chocolate bar. So, even the poorest, if they have a bit of BTC, their currency will actually (for the first time) be gaining value.
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From my understaning inflation is the biggest enemy of wealthy people. That's what is forcing them to invest. Because value of fiat is constantly dropping.
Deflation is absolutely amazing for wealthy people. And definetly it's not a good environment for any sort of investments. If I could keep most of my savings in asset that is deflating and demand is growing fast, then why would I think of investing in anything else.
Am I wrong?
I like your example. But the truth is that if money would not be printed like crazy and redistributed (but instead there would be very limited amount of money) then it would be only worse.
Can you actually imagine that global economy would be based on deflationary currency?
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Ultimately I think they both are static forces. In inflation, the dollar just buys less over time. In deflation, it would be the opposite. I think the people that have power and are in the know just figure out ways to take advantage of the situation.
Thinking about a deflationary currency is a bit of a trip! Who will be holding the last penny?
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that would be interesting to find out who would be the one to hold the last penny :)
love your reply. cheers
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This post has received a 3.05 % upvote from @drotto thanks to: @crypto.piotr.
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Read email. No upvote for you on the post, again.
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Hi Dave
I will check my email box soon. Just got home a while ago. Busy weekend.
You mind if I ask you a question? I read that as author I would receive 75% rewards. But at the same time I read that if I use bots after 30minutes from publishing then all those rewards will go back to bots and curators. Im still trying to figure out and each week Im playing a bit different scenerio with bots and testing different ones.
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As far as I know, if you publish the post, any upvote within 15minutes, all goes straight to the author. The rest, too long winded to spell out here.
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So assuming that I would bring few bots to upvote my post then what delay would be the best? if I try to use them >30min after I upload post then would you consider upvoting my posts too in the future? Or would it be still to fast?
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Technically, most high payout bot doesn't allow upvote within 30 minutes. So if you can make a post, immediately get a vote before 15minutes, it's actually more beneficial to yourself.
Don't get me wrong, I like to upvote you but my voting power stuck voting for a huge trail of Chinese blogger. So happen when your post is up, my bot is resting to accumulate better voting power. Take note I don't even upvote myself, instead I choose to give to the community.
Let's fix the meet up. Wish I can show you more.
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Are you online 24h? :) I can hardly catch up with replying ahahaha :)
Thank you for your kind response and at least I know that you decided not to upvote for other reasons than me using bots. Of course no need to upvote me if you cannot do it.
I will check my email box within 1h :) stay in touch mate
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Im on steemit just few weeks but I already learned that the biggest benefit I have so far is those few valuable connections with people like you. Thanks for your constant support man
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Keep up the good post buddy. May not get noticed immediately unless you got supported by other people ICO and wants you to do a write up to introduce them. But then, it's a double edged sword. If the coin goes well, you'll get worshipped like God of coins. What if it doesn't?
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Then you just hide yourself like those guys from BitConnect did :)
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Congrats on a thoughtful and successful post. I think that Bitcoin has a bright long term future. Short term - I think people are a bit fearful to use it as a "long term" store of value due to volatility. Perhaps this volatility is just the process of the market finding a long term stable price. Only time will tell. Until then keep following my blog for the "up's and down's" forecast. Nate
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Im on steemit just few weeks but I already learned that the biggest benefit I have so far is those few valuable connections with people like you. Thanks for your constant support man
I will surely follow your blog Nate
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sorry.....when moon?
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I dont think we will moon anytime soon. But surely if this tradewar will be getting worse then I presume that (hopefully) after another G20 summit in July things will pick up speed (hopefully this time around all power nations will manage to find common ground to regulate the market.
The truth is that I cannot be sure how really this conflict between USA and China can affect cryptomarket and I would love to hear others opinion.
What do you think @hille?
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I think the market will do what market does and if you can read charts. You will surely able to make decisions base on what signals and trends you find on the chart.
Knowing market sentiment doesn't hurt but you can make a plan just by looking the charts. The rest are just noise you should ignore (most of the time).
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Thank you for your valuable comment mate.
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Happy to comment.
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Nice
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I guess so ... It will reach the "ATH" ... Now the bitcoin is an international currency ...Whether we like it or not .. The economy of many countries has gotten into that, and the future is generated and developed involving bitcoin in the plans 👍
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Would you really consider bitcoin as a currency? I see it more of a "store of a value" or asset. Definetly bitcoin blockchain technology will be used by banks (as a backend) but I dont see bitcoin as an international currency as long as it will not be accepted by power nations as a currency.
I like your positive energy :) Thx for your comment mate
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Bitcoin WAS moving to more of a "store of value" in the recent past. This was due to high transaction fees and SLOW transaction processing times. I believe the introduction of segwit, larger block sizes and the lightning network have resolved the speed and transaction fee size issues (for now). As long as Bitcoin remains fast and relatively inexpensive - it has a future as a currency. If it becomes SLOW and EXPENSIVE, forget it - other digital currencies will win. The fastest and cheapest combined will win in the long haul.
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I also believe that those problems has been resolved, but adaptation still is an issue. And let's not fool ourselfs. Bitcoin and other cryptos are to complicated to be used by common population. For that reason I believe regular "joe" will still go to bank. But since banks will be using blockchain technology for their own benefit then banks will be able to compete with bitcoin (as a form of payments). And the fact that bitcoin is decentralized and there is no customer support, nowhere to comlain - then banks will still rule the world with just small % of people using crypto to actually make payments.
I cannot see future if regular "joe" doesnt understand how to buy and trade crypto. I lately helped over 10 friends (mostly educated people, age 30-40) to get into crypto market and it was a struggle.
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Those are very good points. How does the crypto industry overcome them? Perhaps better software development? I think most crypto software is "clunky" feeling and non-intuitive. Where were the major sticking points with your friends?
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I cannot see how this industry could overcome those issues.
After all it's new technology and even people with experience can often feel lost and confused. It's a long way before regular "joe" will feel comfortable enough to keep most of his savings in crypto.
What means "clunky"?
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"Clunky": unrefined user interface, sometimes not intuitive to use... I think cleaner user interface and software design features could potentially make a lot of cryptos much more user friendly. Think MS DOS vs Windows...
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wow. now I get it. thanks
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I was summoned by @crypto.piotr. I have done their bidding and now I will vanish...
A portion of the proceeds from your bid was used in support of youarehope and tarc.
Abuse Policy
Rules
How to use Sneaky Ninja
How it works
Victim of grumpycat?
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This is all over my head but I trust you to keep us informed! ;)
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hehehe I will do my best :)
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I watched the same vid, he is a smart dude. Always interested to hear what he has to say. He and David Hay area a couple of my favorites, both very well spoken in the space!
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Absolutely. I made a list of over 400 youtube influencers but I realized that only several of them are worth watching. David Hay is anyway taking huge risk with his Venezuela project and Im seriously worried about him.
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This is very interesting.
I have a similar take, in fact I think with geopolitical tensions escalating as well as volatility in our stock market, I think gold and crypto will flourish. So a trade war can also help crypto.
I would also say that we are long due for a recession and can see one happen in the next 2-3 years. I think fear of a recession will drive investors into an uncorrelated asset class like commodities or cryptos which can be a safe haven store of wealth and investment during a downturn.
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Hi @daddyku
Thank you for your reply. Im glad to see that we're thinking same way and we're on the same page.
Would you really think that we need another 2-3 years for another recession to happend? I strongly believe upcoming recession will hit us hard way sooner than that.
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I noticed that you're following over 13k people? why? :) so many ...
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Haha, I followed alot of people when I first got on Steemit. Definitely regret that choice now. My logic was to get more followers, however I don't even bother to check my feed now tbh bc it is just a behemoth. I think organic following is much better, so now what I'm doing is just closely following a few people like yourself and trying to keep in touch with a few close followers that I like.
It's much better to have a consistent core set of followers who comment, upvote and reply to you.
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Thank you for your kind reply and at the same time sorry that it took me so long to write back.
behemoth :) I love the way you described it.
We're on the same page. I work as a social media marketer (different industry) and I fully agree with you.
I would love to stay in touch with you a little bit closer as I value your knowledge and your input. And we could support each other on Steemit.
I wish there would be more advanced notification system developed by steemit.
Plus you're very responsive which is absolutely great and steemit community surely will benefit by having you here.
Perhaps you could send me short email to [email protected]
No pressure of course,
Cheers, Piotr
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Good point, we will see what happens. I think 2-3 years we should be in a recession but you are certainly right that if a few triggers get set we can see a recession in a matter of a few months.
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Sorry for such a late reply. Just found your comment a moment ago.
Would you mind checking my last post and sharing your opinion in regard to asked quetion: "Will crypto and blockchain divide humanity?". Im very curious what's your view on that issue.
Cheers, Piotr
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